Post-election GB-wide poll shows Labour slumping to joint third place with the Greens - SNP surge to massive 22-point lead in Scottish subsample, with Labour on course for TOTAL WIPEOUT in Scotland

On some measures, Reform UK actually had a poor result last Thursday.  In the English local elections, their showing in the projected national vote share dipped quite sharply from 30% last year to 26% this year.  In the Scottish Parliament election, they significantly underperformed their polling average, while in the Welsh Senedd election, they had thought they were roughly level-pegging with Plaid Cymru but ended up quite a bit behind, both in terms of votes and seats.  However, that's not the impression you'd have got from looking at the media, and this may be an example that demonstrates the theory that what the media tells you about an election result is far more important than the election result itself, because the first GB-wide YouGov poll since Thursday shows Reform getting a post-election bounce, as if they're basking in the glory of having done really well.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 10th-11th May 2026):

Reform UK 28% (+3)

Conservatives 17% (-)

Greens 16% (+1)

Labour 16% (-2)

Liberal Democrats 13% (-1)

SNP 3% (-)

Restore Britain 3% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 2% (+1)

Scottish subsample: SNP 39%, Reform UK 17%, Greens 13%, Conservatives 10%, Labour 10%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Restore Britain 1%

Welsh subsample: Plaid Cymru 40%, Reform UK 33%, Conservatives 10%, Labour 6%, Greens 3%, Liberal Democrats 3%, Restore Britain 2%

On a more positive note, the straw in the wind that is the Scottish subsample may suggest there is momentum for the SNP and none (for example) for the Liberal Democrats, which would imply the public are interpreting the Holyrood result in a rather different way than they're 'supposed' to.  Individual Scottish subsamples are very small, of course, but YouGov do weight and structure theirs correctly, so if just for the hell of it we plug those numbers into a seats projection model, this is what we get for the Scottish component of the next UK general election: SNP 51, Liberal Democrats 5, Conservatives 1.  A total wipeout for Labour, and no breakthrough for Reform.

Your Party are literally polling at zero in England, Scotland and Wales, despite the fact that YouGov now include them.  Incredibly, despite Jeremy Corbyn's name recognition, they've failed as an experiment even quicker than Alba did, and I think Corbyn and Sultana should be thinking creatively about a way out of their predicament.  Their best bet might be to simply throw in their lot with Polanski and the Greens, but if they don't want to do that, the second-best option may be to negotiate a limited electoral pact in which the Greens agree to stand aside in a small number of seats like Islington North and Coventry South.  I can't see any other way that Your Party aren't going to fade into total irrelevance.

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