I feel like I should say something about the new JL Partners / Telegraph MRP poll for the Holyrood election, but I'm actually struggling to find much information about it. JL Partners' own website only seems to have data for the parallel polls on the English local elections and the Welsh Senedd, and even the Telegraph's write-up doesn't reveal the full seat tallies or vote shares. The National have once again published the full constituency-level results in an interactive feature, but I'm unable to use it at the moment.
However, what is clear is that this poll is an extreme oddity because it purports to show the one outcome that most of us have ruled out as a realistic possibility. It may cause the controversial Somerset-based blogger known as "Stew" to have something of an emotional moment, because it shows that the SNP would win an overall majority but only due to a substantial contribution of list seats. They would take only 57 constituency seats, but their TEN list seats - that's TEN - would drag them up to 67 in total. It's hard to see how that can be the case unless JL Partners have found one of two things: either a) a massive recovery on the SNP list vote share, or b) a very weird split on the list vote among the SNP's opponents.
One thing I am able to see on The National's website is the map of constituency results, and it's obvious JL Partners are showing a radically different pattern from the MRP polls of Find Out Now or YouGov. They have Labour winning eight constituencies in the central belt (but weirdly Dumbarton is not one of them). They have Reform UK winning three seats: Dumfriesshire, Aberdeenshire West and one in the central belt that is hard to discern from the map but to me looks suspiciously like Strathkelvin & Bearsden. If I'm right about that, it's a completely bonkers projection that should call into question the credibility of the whole poll. I see on Twitter that someone is also pointing out that the Green vote in Dumfriesshire exceeds Reform's lead over the SNP - and there is no Green candidate in Dumfriesshire!
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That third Reform seat is indeed Strathkelvin and Bearsden, and like you it makes me inclined to regard the entire poll with suspicion. If they'd projected Labour, who came second last time, or the Lib Dems, who hold the overlapping Westminster constituency of Mid Dunbartonshire, I might just about have regarded it as plausible. But this projection has the SNP dropping from ~46% of the vote in 2021 to just 13.3% and Reform romping home in one of the most pro-remain constituencies in the whole country, which frankly beggars belief.
ReplyDeleteMy mistake! It was actually the Tories who came second last time, on 20.7%, with Labour just behind them on 18.4.
Delete16 & 17 year olds are eligible to vote in the Senedd election. The apparent exclusion of this demographic from the JL Partners sample also brings into question the professional competency of the company.
ReplyDeleteThe company probably assumed Wales would operate in exactly the same way as England. But then I'm assuming the company is based in England.
DeleteA Very Suspect poll on the eve of the Election but thanks for highlighting it anyway.
ReplyDelete"They would take only 57 constituency seats, but their TEN list seats"
ReplyDeleteI personally think this is more realistic than the rest of the projections - as long as they can get and hold the message: "both votes SNP".