Friday, September 5, 2025

Rayner is OUT as Deputy PM - but nature abhors a vacuum, and it's likely that an alternative soft left champion would emerge in any early leadership election

Angela Rayner has just resigned as Deputy Prime Minister, although I can't see from the initial reporting whether she has also resigned as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party (an elected rather than appointed position, of course).  The latter point could be crucial in terms of her long-term political future, although if a vacancy for the leadership were to come up in the next few months, her goose would still be pretty cooked.

Understandably, punters think her chances of replacing Starmer have just fallen off a cliff.  She had been favourite for a time, but these are the latest odds - 

Wes Streeting 6.8
Andy Burnham 8.4
Yvette Cooper 15
Darren Jones 19.5
Angela Rayner 22
Bridget Phillipson 25
Rachel Reeves 30
Ed Miliband 34

Some people will assume that Wes Streeting's chances have strengthened dramatically, but you have to look at this from the point of view of those who will ultimately make the decision - ie. Labour party members.  In this particular scenario, they are not likely to conclude that the problem is that the current leadership is not sufficiently right-wing, because Starmer has pushed the party as far to the right as it has ever been (including in the Blair years).  They are much more likely to be looking for a soft left corrective, and if Rayner can no longer provide that, they'll try to seek out an alternative champion.  Andy Burnham is the person who would most obviously fit the bill - but just one snag, he's not actually eligible because he's not an MP.  That can theoretically be overcome but not easily.

So I think the person whose chances have just improved dramatically is Ed Miliband.  That may not be showing up in the odds yet, but I think the logic for it is sound.

16 comments:

  1. “… the point of view of those who will ultimately make the decision - ie. Labour party members.”.
    Ah, but Morgan McSweeney (or someone appointed by McSweeney now that he’s Starmer’s Chief of Staff) will count the votes.
    What did Stalin say about the outcomes of elections being determined not by those who cast the votes, but by those who counted them?
    McSweeney’s wife, Imogen Walker was second among in-person, cast votes to become the Labour candidate for Hamilton and Clyde Valley. When electronically cast votes were counted (by McSweeney controlled staff at HQ) Walker emerged triumphant.
    Ditto for loathed, Zionist creep, Luke Akehurst in North Durham. To anyone believing that Akehurst genuinely won that contest, I have a Nigerian Prince renting my spare room who would like to know your bank account details

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    1. McSweeney's wife is also Rachel Reeves' parliamentary secretary.

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  2. What are the current rules to trigger a labour party leadership contest?

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    1. Only happens if Starmer vacates the position himself. Otherwise, it's a two-step process: first a majority of the Labour Party conference must request a leadership election at conference. Second, that majority must then back a qualified alternative candidate(a MP backed by 20% of the PLP).

      Stitched up, in other words.

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    2. Surely rules don't apply to the Imperial Labour Party.

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    3. An attitude of which the Alba Party would very much approve.

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  3. Miliband has ruled himself out according to Five Live.

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  4. Every cloud etc.....

    Ian Murray has been sacked as Scottish Secretary.

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    1. That is good news!

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    2. Who will replace him? Lord Fauntleroy-Faucett Water-Cabinet Plunger?

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    3. Sources close to Mr Murray, are said to be “genuinely shocked” and “flabbergasted” that he had lost his job.

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    4. Probably Doogie Alexander, that slimy bastard.

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  5. Murray sacked. They'll be greetin' on the streets of Morningside.

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  6. Yvette Cooper escapes from the Home Office, one day before perhaps 1,000 + peaceful protesters are arrested as terrorists under HER legislation.
    You lucky *@%#!

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    1. Shows how low Starmer regards the Foreign Office.

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  7. rayner chews her tongue when she talks, dunno why; I mean the english mangle their vowels, but ...

    tax dodging is disgraceful though

    what Keith Stonner needs to do is :

    - shutdown overnight the 2/3 of the world's tax havens which are under UK jurisdiction

    - send 2 men with guns into the city to bring it back under UK law, that "masonic vatican"

    - increase the SFO budget by 1000%

    - change the burden of proof in fraud trials to US norms; the prosecutors decide if a fraud has occurred (the complex bollocks), the jury get to decide whether it was the accused who did it

    - introduce racketeering laws, so that collective enterprise is recognised in law and the man at the top can get jailtime for what the man at the bottom did

    that would clear out this augean stables.

    Drain the Swamp. If you really want to drop the bomb on them all, introduce a new currency the "New British Pound" to be issued on a 1-1 basis for old pounds which are in "authorised accounts"; watch the worlds oligarchic kakisto-kleptocracy have seizure and explosive diarrhoe.

    Estimates of untaxed wealth in the offshore are around 6 trillion. Rayner may be an entitled cunt, but she is one of the little people.

    As for Nigel Farage, our next PM is a "small businessman" whose only talents involved fiddling the tax return.

    - all the while the HMRC are hiring snitches to get all the "benefits cheats".


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