So I'm just catching up with the latest Welsh voting intention poll, which comes from More In Common, who don't seem to have done any full-scale Welsh polls before.
Senedd voting intentions (More In Common, 18th June-3rd July 2025):
Reform UK 28%
Plaid Cymru 26%
Labour 23%
Conservatives 10%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 4%
It's obviously disappointing that More In Common haven't corroborated the two YouGov polls showing Plaid in the outright lead, but in one sense that may not matter. Progressive parties have a majority of the vote between them, which ought to mean that the Plaid leader would become First Minister on these numbers, at the head of a 'keep Reform out' coalition. Admittedly it would be in Labour's power to scupper that, and to allow a minority Reform government to take office - but how would they do it without being seen to do it? How would they do it without suffering massive reputational damage as a result? I think they would have to swallow their pride and let Plaid take the reins.
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Reform UK would end up as a minority administration on those figures.
ReplyDeleteNot so, unless Labour facilitate that. Centre-left parties would have a clear majority.
DeleteI agree with that. A lot
DeleteIt's a stretch to call current Labour either progressive or Centre-Left, though they're certainly not electorally friends of Reform.
ReplyDeleteDid Sarwar not say he was “open” to working with Reform?
DeleteEluned Morgan, if left to her own devices, would probably be reasonably progressive.
DeleteAny party who's British will work with any other to prevent a Welsh party from being in government
ReplyDeleteJust the same as they would in Scotland if given the chance
On these figures and in my opinion, Labour would have no choice but to swallow their considerable pride and accept a Plaid-led administration of some sort.
ReplyDeleteFrom the National:
ReplyDelete"Ross Greer calls for Scotland to pivot towards wealth taxation"
Considering even as an MSP he earns more than twice as much as the average wage and 7 times as much as the state pension, I look forward to him donating about two-thirds of his wage as an MSP to the Scottish Consolidated Fund for redistribution.
Clearly he would agree to that as being only fair.
Why does his claim that shooting estates should not be getting tax breaks intended for small businesses morally oblige him to give away his income to the point that (on your figures) he ends up on three quarters of the average wage? I'm afraid I'm slow and don't get the connection at all
DeleteYou may aspire to dragging us all down the way to the lowest common denominator. We want to improve the lot of those on minimum incomes and increase state pension, which is currently among the lowest in Western Europe. Off you go back to the Daily Fail and WOS. Your smart arse remark says so much about you, and nothing about anyone else. But now we know what you want for the people of Scotland. Low wages and impoverished pensioners. Cretin.
Deletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/25304169.ross-greer-calls-scotland-pivot-towards-wealth-taxation/
Delete"There are Tory MSPs in Parliament who are some of Scotland’s biggest landowners who get tax breaks for their shooting estates, tax breaks that are designed for small businesses.
The government has a quarter of a billion pound business tax break scheme that their own review found no positive benefits from."
It's a great virtue signalling soundbite but the devil is in the detail. For instance about the SBBS - from Scotgov for 2020:
"The Small Business Bonus Scheme (SBBS) offers a non-domestic rates – or business rates as they are often referred to – relief to non-domestic properties in Scotland under a certain size, as measured by their rateable value. In the latest year (2020), £279 million was spent on the provision of this relief for qualifying properties."
So if it's the SBBS he's talking about, and he has complained about that before, just how many Tory "shooting estates" do you think there are that have, for instance a total cumulative rateable value of less than £15,000 for 100% relief, or even £35,000 for 25%?
Compared with legitimate small businesses that "... over three-quarters of non-domestic properties in Scotland associated with single-property businesses have a rateable value below the 100% threshold of £15,000, and that take-up of the relief among them is relatively high."
https://www.gov.scot/publications/evaluation-small-business-bonus-scheme/
Greer is an economic tyro. Or would aspire to be if he had a clue.
yir2 likes to blow wee birds out of the air, remember.
Delete6.30
Delete“Of you go back to the daily fail and wos” says all we need to know about you and none of it is good.
Anon at 11.04. Your attempt at a smart arse remark is even worse than his. If appalling pension provision and low pay are your thing feel free to feck off. WOS treats his readers like idiots, so it’s your natural home. Byeee.
DeleteAnon at 6:27 PM and same at 6:30 PM and 10:59 PM
DeleteIf you had had the misfortune of ever reading through a Scottish Green Party manifesto as I did a few years back cover to cover, you'd realise that if the Greens ever had their way in Government, even more so than with the destructive Bute House Agreement, they'd totally destroy the economy of Scotland, large, medium and small businesses would flee like there's no tomorrow, the economy would be destroyed and there would BE no money to pay state pensions, and the wages of any businesses left would be less than those in India, as unemployment would reach 7 figures with no money to pay unemployment benefits.
Greer is totally clueless. As are you.
6.27 thanks for confirming exactly what you are. You are an extremely unpleasant person.
Delete6.27 takes joy from being an unpleasant person. It’s all the poor guy has to live for.
DeleteThe new Welsh electoral system is supposedly the most proportional one in the UK. I say supposedly, because as we've seen with multi-member wards in Scottish councils and regional lists, a limited number of seats per area can be effective at shutting out the smaller parties and their voters.
ReplyDeleteTo get a candidate elected, a party must accumulate roughly 17% of the vote. You can immediately see the result if this poll is evenly distributed geographically*:
The Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens get none.
Reform, Plaid and Labour's vote shares are cleaved in half after their first candidates. 14, 13 and 11.5 puts them ahead of the Conservatives' 10%.
Seat projection is therefore a bit closer to Ref 32, Plaid 32, Lab 32 than the implied ~29, 27, 24 they might get under a single national list.
*Of course the votes won't be evenly distributed. They also did all the boundary drawing before Reform's surge. Now they're screwed LOL
Economically progressive is obviously great. Socially progressive too, but not if it's just a bandwagon for hordes of shouty blue hairs. The Welsh would do well to learn from Scotland's recent past.
ReplyDeleteRe progressive parties, Plaid have 26% and Greens 4%. That totals 30% as against 68% for right-wing parties. Disappointing.
ReplyDeleteFrom The National: Four ways Mairi McAllan can solve the housing crisis. The most obvious way would be for her to resign and leave the job to somebody with more talent. But talent isn't exactly in great supply in the SNP ranks.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 7.57 pm .... yes, and we all agree that you would be so much better at the job. Lol.
DeleteSounds like a must-read
DeleteIndeed. The SNP's contribution to the modern development of Wales has been lacking.
DeleteRegrettably there is some truth in what you say about a lack of talent in SNP. Cherry and Forbes are head and shoulders above the rest but don’t fit in with the gender brigade. Fed up saying it, but in the absence of a clear out of the entryists and the gender extremists SNP isn’t getting a working majority and isn’t going to push for Indy. Spare me the you’re a unionist crap.
DeleteReally?
ReplyDeleteIn which other party's ranks can this talent be found at present?
If Reform are so anti-immigrant, who do they imagine are voting fir them in Wales?
ReplyDeleteThe working and non-working class in the South Wales valleys and towns. The people whose fathers took part in the miners' strike. The fact that Plaid Cymru fought hard against Brexit seems to have alienated them.
DeleteFrom the National "Mark Brown: Why I plan to join RISE"
ReplyDeleteor something like that.
I don't believe it, I just don't belieeeeve it. From the Herald:
ReplyDelete"Ross Greer has said John Swinney must "de-risk" Scotland's economy by helping Scottish whisky businesses "switch" their exports from America to Canada to "protect" them from Donald Trump's "unpredictable" tariffs."
Ummmm .....
Begin with the premise that Ross Greer is an idiot with a very shady past. Tented protest camp anyone? Hopefully he and his fellow grifters are on the way out.
DeleteTented protest camps against nuclear weapons were and are a very good thing.
DeleteLong may they continue in Scotland.
Proud of all who take part in them.
Anon at 5.21. I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt that you don’t know which camp I’m talking about, although in that case why are your posting?
Delete