GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 15th-16th June 2025):
Reform UK 27% (-2)
Labour 24% (+1)
Conservatives 17% (-)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-)
Greens 10% (-)
SNP 4% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 41%, Labour 23%, Reform UK 13%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 5%
Although YouGov are unusual in structuring and weighting their Scottish subsamples correctly, the margin of error in any subsample results is still enormous due to the small sample size. So the SNP are unlikely to really be in the 40s, but this is the second post-Hamilton YouGov subsample in a row to have them with a big lead over Labour, which makes it more likely that they've effectively got away with their defeat in the by-election. The only real danger of that setback was that it might produce a snowball effect threatening the SNP's national lead, and if that hasn't happened, we may end up looking back on the by-election as a noisy irrelevance.
The Britain-wide figures are consistent with the recent pattern of the gap between Reform and Labour narrowing. I'd put that down to a combination of Reform's breakthrough in the local elections gradually fading from memory, and Labour winning back a small percentage of lost voters with the U-turn on winter fuel allowance. Morgan McSweeney may even think this means his masterplan for winning the next general election for Labour is gradually coming together, but I am very sceptical that Labour will be able to win the election if they merely recover to the high 20s or low 30s. There's always the potential for the right-wing vote to coalesce behind (probably) Reform to defeat Starmer.
*. *. *
It's trite to point out that Somerset's controversial "Stew" blogger often directly contradicts himself, but nevertheless it's startling to see him being brazen enough to do it in back-to-back blogposts. In his last-but-one post, he blasted John Swinney and Kate Forbes for taking part in the "Scotland 2050" conference because this supposedly implied Scotland would still be part of the UK in 2050. But when it became clear that Swinney would in fact be using his speech at the conference to say that he envisaged Scotland being independent well before 2050, Stew wrote another post expressing his outrage about that, because it's supposedly 'carrots'.
Whatever anyone may think of John Swinney and his excessive caution, it's fair to say that, as far as his participation in the conference was concerned, he simply couldn't win with Oor Stew. Anticipating that Scotland will be independent is bad, anticipating that Scotland will not be independent is bad. Maybe Swinney was supposed to channel his inner Peter A Bell and declare UDI on the podium.
* * *
Poll commissions, poll analysis, election analysis, podcasts, videos, truly independent political commentary - that's Scot Goes Pop, running since 2008 and currently the third most-read political blog in Scotland. It's only been possible due to your generous support. If you find the site useful and would like to help it to continue, donations by card payment are welcome HERE, or alternatively donations can be made direct by PayPal. My PayPal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
Let's be clear here. The UK government under both the Tories and Labour are facilitating a genocide and breaking international law and the Geneva convention on a regular basis. Apart from mass murder and starvation of innocent children attacking nuclear facilities is one of the worse things anybody can do. All of the above have been supported by Labour and the Tories.
ReplyDeleteYet Swinney is happy to voluntarily attend a conference with representatives of these same political parties.
Ifs,
DeleteWhat has that got to do with this YouGov poll?
Who spoke for Likud? Israel’s opinion is always so inexplicably important…
DeleteAnon at 1.06pm - did you read the article? The article referred to the conference. Now a question for you do you agree with my comment?
Deleteifs away and look in a mirror.
DeleteAch anon at 4.34pm I suppose that is an improvement from your zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz posts.
DeleteUK polls appear to be a bit all over the place. Another poll out today.
ReplyDeleteNEW | Labour fall to 3rd place
➡️ REF – 29% (+1)
🔵 CON – 22% (+2)
🔴 LAB – 21% (-3)
🟠LD – 13% (-1)
🟢 GRN – 9% (+2)
Via
@Moreincommon_
, 13-16 Jun (+/- vs 9 Jun)
Seats
Reform 325
Con 83
Lib/Dem 78
Labour 77
SNP 44
PC 6
Green 5
The resident troll IFS’s lies about SNP participation in the upcoming Scotland2050 conference were flagged up by me previously. I pointed out that he had lifted the wording of his post from WOS. He denied it even though it was there in black and white. Lo and behold. U turn by Campbell. What will IFS do now.? Oh dear. Astonishingly he will double down and deny what is there for all to see. But it’s in print. Cue incoming abuse and more lies.
ReplyDeleteDavid Francis lying once again at 1.04pm . I post my my own opinions. I use quotes when I am using someone else's words. It is not in black and white as the liar claims. If I want to quote some other person I will do so and have done so plenty times in the past. The troll Francis never uses quotes he just makes up shit. He is a compulsive liar.
DeleteSo let me summarise the slimy lying snake David Francis position.
He claims he has a plan for independence but he isnae telling anyone what it is - not even the SNP.
So Francis is quite happy for the leader of the SNP to voluntarily take part in a conference with the parties that are holding Scotland in its colonial grip. The parties that represent Westminster who use and abuse Scotland and deny Scots the right to self determination. The very parties that took Scotland out of the EU against its substantial vote to remain.
Not only that he disnae seem to have a problem sharing a platform with parties that facilitate a genocide, mass murder and starvation of children and the bombing of nuclear installations and hospitals etc.
These are all indicators of not only a Britnat liar but a person lacking in basic humanity. A very disturbed person.
ifs - your abuse is supposed to do what? Convince people to your irrational argument. I think you are the real britnat. Look a squirrel.
DeleteI am anon at 1.04. I am not D F. Only a cretin could confuse my restrained and civil posting for that of D F. Enter IFS. We are still waiting for your plan for Independence post successful de facto referendum. Let us have it. Just an outline. Just the first four steps. Truth is you do not a have a plan. It’s a distinct possibility you actually thought that by winning a de facto referendum Independence was thereby achieved. You did, didn’t you? You piggy backed on a moronic article by Campbell in which he got it totally wrong about the SNP involvement in the Scotland2050 event. I pulled you up for lying. Campbell is now trying to backtrack. Oh dear. Egg applied to your face in copious quantities. Go clean it off and back to WOS with you.
DeleteIfS will get his MBE one of those days.
Delete4.36pm - what irrational argument are you referring to? Is it a grey or red squirrel and what is the point of bringing wildlife in to the conversation. A strange post but perhaps you can clarify.
Delete5.08pm “ restrained and civil posting “ aye right. You are definitely that bampot Francis.
Delete5.33pm It’s not IFS wanting to join the House of Lords that is Blackford.
Delete5.08pm you are the poster who says he has a plan. So why do you need to hear a plan from IFS. Is it because your plan is rubbish or is it because you don’t have a plan and you just made that up? I hear the SNP are looking for a plan so why have you not given them your plan. The truth is anon@5.08 you are full of bullshit and you stink.
DeleteSo Scotland is to stay quiet say nothing stay in our box? is that your answer IFS? You can’t change anything if you stay at home that includes not voting. Or is that what you actually want? Scotland not to have a voice?
ReplyDeleteScotland’s voice inside the UK is “Please, sir, can I have some more?”
DeleteWe should be reaching beyond it. Indy doesn’t come from the master’s ladle. It’s something our leadership must stand up and take.
Another post full of lies at 1.37pm. Where do I say Scotland is to stay quiet. Nowhere. A question for you anon why do you post blatant lies. Oh I know, you are David Francis.
DeleteUnlike Francis I want Scotland to have a strong voice in a referendum.
IFS , I think you need another wee holiday away from the mearns.
DeleteIFS the self righteous one makes it up again. Scotland does need a voice, a voice in the world, just as every other independent sovereign nation has. Do you disagree with that? Or is this yet another post you will say is full of lies. Why don’t you start your own political party? Put your money where your mouth is.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 4.32pm - I assume you are the obnoxious troll David Francis again. I've no idea what you are talking about that I
Delete" makes it up again". Making accusations that are not even vague but are invisible is the mark of an idiot.
" Do you disagree with that " says the anon. No I do not disagree. I already answered that at 2.07pm. Scotland should have a voice as an independent nation. Hence my moniker of Independence for Scotland. You on the other hand post post as anonymous.
Why on earth would I want to start a political party and encounter people like David Francis and Dr Jim.
Now you tell me. Is it right to voluntary share a platform with the Britnats who are facilitating genocide and breaking the Geneva convention and international law every day of the week. Have a cup of tea with them while they are helping to murder children. Happy with that are you?
Are you for a de facto referendum?
Kindly don't ask IFS difficult questions !
DeleteI’m Alec Lomax and I love to troll. It’s my only hobby and I live alone in a bedsit. I use my benefits to buy Carlsberg super brew. Even though min pricing put up the price of a can I don’t blame the SNP as I know people like me need help. Normally due to my drink problem I can only manage a few words but I’m cutting back on the number of cans per day. I want to be an SNP success story.
DeleteTrump v IFS who not to believe in?
ReplyDeleteThe troll on SGP David Francis is good at asking me questions, or telling me where to go or what to do or posting lies about what I have said or done or not done. He has also attempted to bully James into banning me despite James saying you cannae ban someone on SGP on many many occasions. If James disnae want me posting on his blog he only has to ask me. I won't do a KC or is it David Francis and keep trying to post.
ReplyDeleteIf I ask the troll Francis a question he runs away and hides and then thinks up some lies to post. He posted as a troll before revealing his persona called David Francis. He couldnae handle the heat and has gone back to hiding in the anon crowd and posting as a troll again.
I am the longest poster using a verified moniker on SGP. Pathetic trolls have tried to bully me off SGP for years because they don't like the truth. They would prefer it if all they read was SNP propaganda from Skier on WGD. The dogger who has been saying independence is just about to happen since 2017. Yes 8 long years ago. If that delusional nonsense mixed with blatant lies is what you want to read btl then you know where there is an abundance of Skier/Declan nonsense.
I have been proved right about the SNP leadership. That is a fact. All you people that have supported Sturgeon/Swinney/Yousaf/Blackford etc over these long years are responsible for Scotland not being independent.
Not seen the unionist kc on for a while. Think he’s finally gone.
DeleteNo, it's because I've got pre-moderation on. I still get my daily dose of "What's a de facto referendum?" and "time to give up on this independence nonsense", but it's for my eyes only.
DeleteI agree you are a verified moniker.
ReplyDeleteYou have no facts just bile and cowardice. Again start your own political party!!! Too scared?
ReplyDeleteAway back to WOS .
DeleteSo not one poster btl is bothered that the leadership of the SNP will be sitting down to tea with the Britnats who are not only holding Scotland prisoner but are assisting a genocide and continually breaking international law and the Geneva Convention. Just how low will people sink just so they won't be seen to criticise their own political party. Very very low is the answer based on btl on SGP.
ReplyDeleteNo idea why people btl think I would want to be like them. Most politicians and political parties disgust me. "Start your own political
party " says a numpty. " Too scared " he says. Too right. I am too scared I end up like the sad trolls btl on SGP. Look at the state of your morals defending the SNP. It's not even a party that wants independence. It's a party that throws out carrots every so often. That is it. Is that worth it to debase yourself?
As far as I am aware SGP is an independence blog. There is already an SNP propaganda blog. It's called WGD.