Just a quick note to let you know I have a new analysis piece at The National about the Norstat poll from the weekend, which showed a big lead for Yes on the independence question, and also had the SNP well ahead on party political voting intentions. You can read the article HERE.
It appears to be behind a paywall which I am not willing to pay. Sorry about that.
ReplyDeleteNor me I'm afraid. I cancelled my National subscription a few years back partly because money was tight at the time but also because there seemed to be as many SNP baaad stories as in the Unionist press.
DeleteJust buy a paper copy for goodness sake.
Deletethe comments are still available & give you the jist of the article
DeleteI agree with your point about the unreliability of sample survey responses to hypothetical "what if" questions. On the occasions when the postulated scenario is realised people seem to adopt an "oh well, we are where we are" attitude and revert back to their original opinion on the subject at hand.
ReplyDeleteOn the "as things stand" independence question the last 4 Norstat polls (excluding the undecided) have shown YES sentiment as follows:
30 Oct-1 Nov 2024: 50%
4-6 Dec 2024: 54%
11-14 Jan 2025: 50%
27-30 May 2025: 54%
The pattern is, therefore, one of oscillation.
In any event polling results are largely irrelevant as the political parties, most notably and importantly the SNP, has described how to harness that declared support via a process which lays out how Scotland's Cause can be realised.
In any event polling results are largely irrelevant as NONE OF the political parties, most notably and importantly the SNP, has described how to harness that declared support via a process which lays out how Scotland's Cause can be realised.
Delete"The pattern is, therefore, one of oscillation."
DeleteNo, I don't accept that. The previous 54% stood out like a sore thumb as an outlier. It remains to be seen if this one is a genuine increase, but it would be strange if the same thing had happened twice, given that Norstat is not known as a Yes-friendly pollster.
Very true and so bloody soul destroying
DeleteThat was a reply to anon at7.02
DeleteThe SNP have very clearly described that exact process. We are preparing for independence. Good governance and selling a vision of an independent Scotland to undecideds will, in time, produce clear and settled support for Yes. At that point the UK's denial of democracy will be untenable in the eyes of the international community.
DeleteWe must stick to the plan.
You are joking? The SNP have no plans. Begging for a section 30 is NOT a plan.
DeleteYou're a tad out of date on the section 30 begging plan, that's gone a long time ago
DeleteDo keep up
Yes, it's been thrillingly replaced by something much vaguer.
Deletelol at 8.17. You’re on the wind up
Deletein swinney's email drafts folder he has a strongly worded email, ready to go, straight to starmer
Delete- when the time is right, he hits SEND
and then it's game on.
oh yes
Anon at 8.17. You sound like Mr Potter who seems to have disappeared. Where can I read the detail of this plan? And how is the rebuttal department performing? And where is the campaign of disruption of Westminster business that is essential to bring about the constitutional conflicts that are needed? We had a period of excellent governance during which we had to cope with Brexit , Covid and now threat of global conflict. Support for Indy was at an all time high. Why was your claimed plan not put into effect then. Serious and specific response please.
Delete"in swinney's email drafts folder he has a strongly worded email, ready to go, straight to starmer"
Deleteoooooh! A strongly worded email ...
... Starmer and the British establishment must be shaking in their boots at the very prospect.
Anon at 8.17. You are remarkably quiet now. No answers to anon at 12.24?
DeleteVote for ALBA. Guarantee Independence by next week.
ReplyDeleteVote SNP guaranteed independence by 2070ish. Maybe
Deletewhoa- you thought that up all by yourself!
Deletehttps://archive.ph/2A0YE
ReplyDeleteNo paywall
Thanks for that.
Deletehave you seen stews latest blog? He again says SNP must be defeated and in comments to vote for whoever is best placed to beat them - including reform
ReplyDeletePolling results are of no relevance if there is no party willing to act on them.
ReplyDelete