It's just a straw in the wind, but a highly encouraging one: the first post-Hamilton Scottish subsample from YouGov suggests that the SNP still have a big national lead over Labour

As I've been pointing out repeatedly since Friday (and some people really, really haven't wanted to hear this message, but I'm afraid facts are chiels that winna ding), the swing in the Hamilton by-election was consistent with the recent polls showing the SNP with a double-digit national lead over Labour.  So the only way the Hamilton result is going to be any sort of problem for the SNP is if the media hype generated by it in itself changes public opinion in Labour's favour.  We'll have to wait for another full-scale Scottish poll to find out for sure whether or not that has happened (and that could be weeks away), but the first YouGov subsample conducted since Hamilton suggests that Labour have not made any progress or enjoyed any bounce.

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 8th-9th June 2025):

Reform UK 29% (+1)

Labour 23% (+1)

Conservatives 17% (-1)

Liberal Democrats 15% (-2)

Greens 10% (+1)

SNP 3% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 33%, Reform UK 28%, Labour 17%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Conservatives 7%, Greens 4%

YouGov structure and weight their Scottish subsamples correctly, unlike other firms, but the margin of error on a sample of 140 is still enormous.  So it's statistically possible there's still some sort of 'hidden' Labour bounce, but I think the SNP will be pretty reassured by these numbers.  The high Reform vote share is obviously concerning, but if we're back to thinking Labour are the SNP's main challengers next year, the first priority for John Swinney is to retain a substantial lead over Labour, and it looks like that might well be happening.