Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat / Sunday Times, 27th-30th May 2025)
Yes 54% (+4)
No 46% (-4)
Although it's the independence numbers that leap out as truly spectacular, in the current circumstances it's the party political voting intentions that the SNP leadership will be far more interested in, and they'll be enormously relieved by them. There's been a peculiar string of Scottish subsample results from GB-wide polls putting Reform either ahead of the SNP or level with them, and although the sample sizes were small, there was an uneasy feeling growing that a full-scale Scottish poll might show something very similar, and right on the eve of the Hamilton by-election too. Thankfully that hasn't proved to be the case at all.
Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:
SNP 33% (-2)
Labour 19% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (+4)
Conservatives 13% (-2)
Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:
SNP 28% (-2)
Labour 18% (+1)
Reform UK 16% (+3)
Conservatives 15% (-)
The percentages above are incomplete, ie. they're missing the Lib Dems and the Greens, because as far as I can see those parties' vote shares are not mentioned anywhere in the Sunday Times write-up. However, the seats projection is: SNP 54, Labour 20, Reform UK 18, Conservatives 17, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 9. Unusually by the standards of recent polls, that's not quite a pro-independence majority - the SNP and Greens between them have 63 seats, which is two short of the target of 65. However, all that the SNP will care about right now is that they have a significant national lead over both Labour and Reform, which I would have thought means on paper that they ought to be in the lead in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. I'm not sure there's anything strange enough about the constituency that would suggest that Reform will be massively bucking national trends there, notwithstanding the Larkhall factor. However, as we all know, parliamentary by-elections are profoundly weird bubble environments in which pretty much anything can happen.
Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:
SNP 31% (-1)
Reform UK 21% (+4)
Labour 20% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-3)
Seats projection: SNP 30, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 5
A lot of the interest about this poll may focus on a hypothetical supplementary question about how people would vote in an independence referendum if Nigel Farage becomes Prime Minister. The results are: Yes 58%, No 42%. That's actually not especially meaningful, because people are terrible at answering hypothetical questions - the results are strikingly similar to how people said they would vote on independence if Brexit happened, and yet when the real thing did happen, there was no real breakthrough for Yes at all. However, that's not to say that Farage as Prime Minister wouldn't boost Yes support. It would very much depend on what he actually did in office. If he rolled back or abolished devolution, for example, I could imagine Yes surging to way higher than 58%.
Net approval ratings of leading politicians:
John Swinney (SNP): -7
Anas Sarwar (Labour): -25
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): -26
Russell Findlay (Conservatives): -32
Keir Starmer (Labour): -39
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -44
Donald Trump (US Republicans): -51
People will look at the above numbers superficially and assume that they mean that Nigel Farage is nowhere near as unpopular in Scotland as he's cracked up to be, but in a sense that's missing the point. Approval ratings like these can tell you how many people dislike a particular leader, but not how deeply those people hate him. That was always Mrs Thatcher's problem in Scotland.
We were told months ago that the settled will klaxon had sounded, so how is this poll “astonishing “ ?
ReplyDeleteBecause this is beyond settled. It's a confirmed will. The confirmed will klaxon is sounding this evening.
DeleteOh and hi, KC.
Seems to me, reordering the popularities, that this is significant:
ReplyDeleteAnas Sarwar (Labour): -25
Keir Starmer (Labour): -39
Russell Findlay (Conservatives): -32
Kemi Badenoch (Conservatives): -44
Scotland v UK Labour+14, Conservative+12
which would mean the solution for both parties is to support Independence to increase their party support.
How does this compare to previous popularity polls?
It's not new. The "branch office" effect has them constantly defending uk-wide policies only to be caught out when there's an uk-wide u-turn. So they always appear incompetent or servile, if not both.
DeleteOn the face of it, this should make them pro-indy, but both of them are dependent upon uk-wide resources which they would lose. It's kind of a catch-22.
I'm interested in what you say about people being terrible about answering hypothetical questions. It was certainly true that we all expected a big shift to Yes after Brexit that never really happened.
ReplyDeleteWhy is this? Are people ambitious or radical about their future but the everyday grind wears them down? Are they naturally reticent about changing the status quo but answer differently when prompted by a polling company? Is it the fault of our leaders in failing to recognise and seize an opportunity?
It baffles me that after everything that the UK has inflicted on us in the last decade (Brexit, Johnson, Truss, Starmer) that the shift to Yes has been so sluggish. If you'd presented it as a future scenario to a Scot in 2015 you may well have got a Yes response in Swinney territory.
After Brexit younger people moved more in favour of independence and older people more against so they cancelled each other out. I feel looking at old polling before and after Brexit backs that up
DeleteAnother possible explanation: people like to think of themselves as reasonable, so if presented with a question that essentially boils down to "if major event X happened, would it change your mind about Y?", a not insubstantial minority would feel compelled to respond "yes".
Delete"Although it's the independence numbers that leap out as truly spectacular, in the current circumstances it's the party political voting intentions that the SNP leadership will be far more interested in, and they'll be enormously relieved by them."
ReplyDeleteYou are quite correct ... and this is always the case.
Around 24% of the 54% in favour of Independence don't support the SNP (in this poll). Proportionately that's nearly half of YES supporters.
ReplyDeleteIf you support Scotland's return to being a nation-state that is clearly not very encouraging.
What people seem to not realise is answering YES to independence in a poll or even in an actual referendum is very different to thinking it is a priority.
DeleteI imagine the majority of people here are either massively pro independence or trolls who are passionately against it.
Alot of people in the real world though would vote for independence but other priorities make them vote differently. It's tricky as pushing Indy more probably won't win them over to the SNP.
Something Alex Salmond once said but seemed to forget in later years was the way to independence was through good governance.
The SNP have been in power for eighteen consecutive years. No government can expect to be wildly popular after that length of time, the best you can hope for is to be respected and not actively hated. The "get independence through good governance" theory made sense in 2007 or 2011, but not so much now.
DeleteI agree with anon June 1, 2025 at 9:50 AM
DeleteSo much bad governance has occurred since 2014 that some people will never again vote for the SNP.
DeleteTheir poor record on competence, madcap policy priorities and virtual abandonment of their prime stated aim of full Scottish self-government has resulted in the SNP being on a managed decline trajectory under MogaJohn.
"I agree with anon June 1, 2025 at 9:50 AM"
DeleteWe won't know who you mean until you're more specific.
Anon 10.26. Yet the SNP are still leading in the polls.
DeleteAnon at 8.56. Why is 54% in favour of Indy not encouraging? Total pro Indy votes is what will count. The support is there. J S just needs to grow a pair.
DeleteAnon@10:26am,
DeleteYou’re spot on.
I think most of us will agree the SNP have been pretty awful in government in recent years.
Anon at 12.15. Comparatively, SNP has been the most effective government in the U K for almost as long as it has been in power across health, education, child poverty and disability benefits. But don’t you let the facts get in the way of your SNP bad narrative.
DeleteSome areas yes , others no. On the other hand compare with labour governing Wales, Think of Austerity Cameron, May, Brexit Johnson, Truss, Sunak, labour with Blair and Iraq, Brown and Darling financial collapse. Starmer’s pathetic response to Israel, winter fuel allowance.
DeleteI take it all back. SNP has been better than all the others put together.
The SNP? bad governance you say? have you had the slightest glance at English governance like ever, and remember the so called Scottish government is only a management system in which any and every decision may be overturned at anytime by England
DeleteBlame Alex Salmond and his giant ego for this "government" nonsense
Maybe if people realized that Scottish executive is still the correct term they might understand better what Scotland actually doesn't control
Anon at 1.36. You need to urgently tell the Scottish Government they don’t exist. They have a very prominent and information packed web site referring to themselves as the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government is a devolved government. Trying to nitpick over the issue of the word Executive is a bit silly faced with the everyday reality of a fully functioning Scottish Govt.
DeleteIFS is raging and if snp win on Thursday it might just be too much for him lol.
ReplyDeleteBallot Box Scotland has the SNP on 59 and the Greens on 10 with the new boundaries. So still the potential for a pro-indy majority
ReplyDelete“……….pro indy majority “
DeleteThe pro indy majority that will really count is the pro indy percentage vote share above 50%.
Then we really are in business!
Even better news.
ReplyDeleteEncouraging numbers for independence but not so great for the SNP. If the SNP tweaked a few policies and some of their more vocal supporters stopped the megaphone shouting down of people who are concerned with current levels of immigration then the SNP's own VI might climb substantially.
ReplyDeleteScotland has never had a problem with immigration because Scotland has zero control over it, immigration is reserved to the English parliament
DeleteImmigration is England's problem.
DeleteI see ALBA is standing a candidate. Are they supporting the SNP ?
ReplyDeleteAlba has never supported the SNP
DeleteWell, when it was sensible it did. In the 2021 Alba Party Election Broadcast, there was even a depiction of a cross being marked next to the SNP on the constituency ballot paper.
DeleteIs not standing
ReplyDeleteWhy no projected Westminster seats for Reform in Scotland despite a 21% vote share? Is their support so diffuse that they never have a strong local presence to win under FPTP, unlike Labour, Tories and LibDems?
ReplyDeleteA better way of putting it is that they haven't yet built up pockets of heavily concentrated support, like the Lib Dems have in places like Edinburgh West.
Delete'I rather object to being blocked before I can reply'. But you block people before they can reply on here. Don't you t think that is a bit inconsistent?
ReplyDeleteWell, it might be if it was true. But back in the real world, there is no blocking facility on the Blogger platform - it is literally impossible for me to block anyone here. And if you are Milli (Supreme Court Shopper etc) I looked into the claim you made on X yesterday and found that was untrue too. The comment that you claimed was "rejected" was never in the moderation queue or in the spam folder. I did not delete it, you simply failed to submit it.
DeleteNow perhaps you can address what you'd obviously much rather not talk about. Why are you falsely claiming that Neil Sinclair was simply implementing a rule the members of the group agreed to, when no such vote ever took place?
ReplyDeleteFrom Wos site today -
Shug says:
1 June 2025 at 1:03pm
'Should I vote Reform to get rid of the SNP?'
Reply
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
1 June, 2025 at 1:29 pm
'Whoever is best placed to beat them where you are.'
And there you have it.
Campbell is endorsing so-called Independence Supporters voting for Reform UK or any other unionist party, to beat the SNP.
Campbell is now supporting the Union, not Scottish Independence and anyone who cannot admit that fact, is as two-faced and cretinous as Campbell himself.
Him and his small deranged clique are no longer of any use whatsoever to our Yes Movement and should be shovelled into the nearest bin, as the shit they really are.
the SNP are corpse blocking a fire exit; it needs to be dismembered to allow the nationalists through
DeleteWhy are you so threatened by his 'small deranged clique'? Do you prefer your own deranged clique?
DeleteAnon at 4.03 Sovereignty is the pari for you.
DeleteAnon at 2.26 -- I'm no supporter of the Phoney Reverend but surely he has simply answered the question correctly? Perhaps you are reading too much into his answer?
DeleteAnon @9:42
DeleteWhatever else can be said about it, "Whoever is best placed to beat them where you are" is definitely not a "correct" answer to a yes/no question.
942- Yes you are.
DeleteWoS the friend of fascists, racists, mysogenists, homophobes, transphobes- keeps him busy I suppose.
ReplyDeletebetter than shilling for paedos, death cultists, infanticides, traitors, quislings, sellouts, satraps, dykes, middle class virtue signallers, telescopic philanthropists, anglo patsies
DeleteHow many times do I have to tell you? Don't use big words like misogynist if you're too thick to be able to spell it. (And don't try to dismiss it as a typo as you do it with monotonous regularity).
DeletePoor Ifs. His fantasy world order is disappearing
DeleteIfs thinks he owns this site. I thought he was away on a permanent holiday to avoid the dss?
Delete416-more worried about spelling than the truth about angry wee men with beards!
DeleteAnon 4.05 - learn to use caps, Stu.
Delete4:57 Furious at his poor spelling being highlighted😁😁😁
Deleteeh no.
DeleteSwinney is amost four times more popular than Farage in this poll, so what does Campbell do?
ReplyDeleteTalks DOWN Swinney and talks UP Farage!
Campbell has now turned into a full blown, racist, right wing Yoon.
The weird little tosser deserves nothing but contempt from all on the Yes side.
the SNP are the union's greatest asset, they will be protected
ReplyDeleteOK IfS !
DeleteWhat complete drivel and stupid comment rolled into one.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteI see some of the demented drivellers from WoS are now drivelling on here.
Little clue for them;
No-one really gives a f#ck what crap idiots like you spout any longer.
So crawl back to the other right wing, racist, genocide excusing Farage-fanboy rats, presided over by that alter boy loving weirdo in Bath.
Meanwhile in the real world the SNP will lead this country to independence and how great was Scotland when we had 56 out of 59 MPs. Now we have 9 and Scotland is a shite hole. So everyone vote SNP and make Scotland great again Simples really.
Deletep.s. wonder why we’ve only got 9 now because they were doing such a grand job of running the country. Bloody mystery to me.
DeleteAnd who would you replace them with, exactly?
DeleteThe human excrement which is Reform UK?
Ach, there's always Liberate Scotland 😏
DeleteAnon at 8.13. A lot of things in life are a mystery to you. You’ve been dealt an unfair hand.
DeleteIs there anything more, say from 2016, that the SNP could have done to progress independence? Or did they tick all the boxes open to them?
ReplyDelete1 SNP MP or 56 doesn’t make one iota of difference to our chances of becoming an independent nation as long as our English masters say no We’re well and truly screwed but maybe Mr Swinney will have the answer this time. We live in hope more than expectation.
DeleteThen what?
DeleteFlieg, Vogel, schnarr’
DeleteDein Lied in Wüstenvogelton! -
Versteck’, du Narr,
Dein blutend Herz in Eis und Hohn!
keep asking the jailer for the key
Deleteone day it could happen
when the SNP win another mandate westminster's position will be untenable
DeleteI don't think untenable means what you think it means
DeleteThat is a good poll for the English NAZI Party Reform. The Wokes in the SNP and Greens are clueless as to how to deal with the English NAZI Party. The Alphabet Queers are useless at protecting Scotland and ordinary Scots from such malevolence.
ReplyDeleteDelusional. Schoolboy stuff. Immature.I take it your folks are a way to bed.
DeleteThe WoS dross are like midges on here tonight.
ReplyDeleteAnyone got any spare bug repellent?
I hear Domestos works well with those Maga-lite fascist freaks.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 10.49 is WOS and/or a unionist trying to breathe new life into the nasty Nat narrative.
ReplyDeleteNot nasty just utterly incompetent as are the rest of the political parties in this country. The country is falling apart in front of our eyes and the policies of our ruling classes be it Westminster or Holyrood are making things worse and no one seems capable of doing anything to stop the slide. It’s little wonder Joe Blogg is utterly scunnered with the lot of them. So depressing
DeleteAch, there's always Alba.
DeleteAnon at 9.50. The familiar refrain. They are all as bad as each other. Copyright The Daily Mail. If you can tell us when the SNP pillaged tens of billions of public funds under the guise of PPE, Track and trace and Covid more generally, and when they tried to shut down Parliament, we would all love to hear it. Or perhaps tell us about how the SNP outperformed all other parts of the UK in health care, education , child poverty alleviation, disability provision, we would be all ears. But you’d rather not. Doesn’t fit in with your lies and nasty Nat narrative. Away back to Wings and the Daily Mail.
DeleteRev Stu was always more anti establishment than pro independence and right now that means vote Reform. He clearly is pivoting toward fully endorsing Reform at Holyrood. Not sure how he squares that with his brigade of lemmings but who cares.
ReplyDeleteyes the speculator and banker Farage is not establishment. Who are you trying to kid. He is establishment supported by the right wing press. Labour is now more right wing than the tories of the 60's, 70's and 80's
DeleteMerchant banker Farage ?
DeleteThe fake rev isn’t anything, other than self serving. I warned about his from the outset. He framed and worded every supposed pro Indy piece in the lead up to the referendum in a way that gave the unionist press and the BBC all the ammunition they needed to push a nasty Nat narrative, and it worked. It’s in his interests to ensure there is no further referendum on Indy for the foreseeable future. It’s his revenue stream. And he has a bunch of mouth frothers muppets and cretins who swallow everything he tells them, even when there is clear evidence that he is talking nonsense and keep sending him money. Why would he want that to stop?
Delete11.26am stockbroker ?
DeleteI watched the latest episode of Through a Scottish Prism last night. What a crew ! They discussed the most important current matter : toilets at Holyrood, the rest was an anti Swinney chorus, oh and Zelinsky is a fascist, bombing poor Russians. The Yes Movement should give this bunch a sidestep.
ReplyDeleteWhat yes movement and if there is who’s leading it and pushing the independence agenda
DeleteYou poor wee soul. Try a bit of research and stop crying into your rice crispies.
DeleteSo you don’t have an answer either and why research something that should be bloody obvious to the afore mentioned Joe Bloggs
DeleteAnon June 2nd @10-25am
DeleteYes ...avoid them and their pleas to support Liberate like the plague.
What a poisonous wee scrote Bawheid Boy truly is! He and his panel pour vitriolic scorn on Swinney and the SNP every weekend and then have the downright bare-faced cheek and audacity to ask for unity!
Joke!
I do but think some self refection on your part might be illuminating. Snap, crackle and pop off Joe Bloggs
ReplyDeleteAye right
ReplyDeleteObviously doing some research is beyond his capabilities. Likes to be baby fed by the wos lot.
DeleteFfs there’s 2 of them or are there. This anonymous person fairly gets aboot
ReplyDeleteSays anon!
DeleteI see Tory shadow SoSS is boasting how he was a full time navy officer as the bbc politics now promoting the idea of conscription. Of course Starmer in Glasgow promoting the Brit dividend of making weapons- I’m sure I heard that somewhere before over 13 frigates! Still the bbc also had. Labour MP about the Russians chapping on our door- ps they need to get past Ukraine and nato countries first, a journalist from the torygraph and a ex labour adviser who did say that he didn’t believe they would be arriving on the shores of England anytime soon. As for Scotland, Wales and Ireland, who cares? Where do I sign up?
ReplyDeleteThe Telegraph woman on the programme seemed to be living on another planet.
DeleteWatching the CNBC news when an item on Alaska came up. Every Alaskan gets over $3000 into their accounts as part of a wealth fund from oil and gas. I am sure Labour will support such a move for Scots. Talk about being exploited.
ReplyDeleteIf u really want to scunner yirsel watch Simon Reeves tour of Scandinavia especially the one on Norway which was on last night. The wealth that Norway has acquired through oil and gas is mind boggling huge. Compare and contrast that wealth to Scotlands wealth at this moment in time. Good god it’s depressing
Deletenorwegs lack the protection of nuclear submarines parked up in Oslo
Deletethey should ask to join the UK then it would really be better together, and Norway can reach the socio economic developmental levels of Wales, and the London skyscrapers can be twice as tall.
and next time the british banks fail they can always raid the norwegian sovereign wealth fund for a bailot; it's worth about 150K USD for every norweg, no one needs that. It would just cause inflation if you spend it. The right place for that money to be safe is in the city of london, where numerous financial experts can look after it.
Deletestarmer could also use the fund money to fight russia, as britain must be protected from the cheap gas of russia delivered to their doors via pipeline from putler.
Deleteenergy company profits need protected.
england needs compensation for the viking raids
DeleteI bet every norwegian in his heart would love to be seen as a second rate type of Anglo, not totally kosher, but sort of in the club.
DeleteI am sure their youth will be dying to fight in our wars.
they could also be culturally enriched by Orange Marches (I think they are all good protestant stock) and also Islam - Norway is sadly inferior to the Swedes in this regard as there are far less stabbings and rapes going on.
Deleteas a proud Scot but britnat I have to LAFF
DeleteHA HA HA
at "norwegians" and their "money" and "fjords" and spending 40B on their transport infrastructure on the west coast
what are they like, freedom, making your own decisions
I direct debit my wages to my next door neighbour who fucks my wife so I don't need to
broad shoulders
pooling and sharing
better together
shared history
https://archive.ph/LmmED
DeleteAnd labour in Scotland supports the theft from Scotland.
ReplyDeleteNational: "Douglas Ross snubs Holyrood summit for seminar on sunny Caribbean island"
ReplyDeleteWell, in fairness ...
May I be the first to wish Dross and Krystle a lovely holiday. Why choose misty Burghead when sunny Barbados beckons and all those expenses are screaming out to be spent?
Delete