Keir Starmer is undoubtedly in trouble as a result of Labour's local elections disaster, but of course there's one party leader who is now in even greater danger, and that person is Kemi Badenoch. She's not going to easily brush off the all-time worst Tory showing in local elections, which saw her party slip to fourth place behind Reform, Labour and the Lib Dems.
I had a look at the latest betting to see if Robert Jenrick is still the favourite to succeed her, and indeed he is - but he's not an odds-on favourite.
Robert Jenrick 3.2
James Cleverly 5.7
Boris Johnson 8.8
Nigel Farage 13
Farage as fourth favourite is completely nuts. Now that Reform have overtaken the Tories, there's no way on earth the Tories are going to co-opt Farage - at most he might become leader of a merged party, but presumably that would be irrelevant under the terms of the betting market, because he still wouldn't be leader of the Tory party. Laying him is probably as close to free money as you'd ever get - although I'm not remotely tempted myself, because the stake might be tied up for a very long time and the rate of return would be poor.
James Cleverly is the name who concerns me the most, because he might improve Tory fortunes but without necessarily making Scottish independence any more likely. By contrast, a return for Boris Johnson would be Christmas for the independence movement because he's as loathed in Scotland as Donald Trump (and for similar reasons). And Robert Jenrick as leader would make it considerably more likely that Britain would leave the European Convention on Human Rights, because by that point you'd have both main opposition parties totally committed to leaving. That in turn would, I think, bring independence closer, because it would be such a jolt to the system for many liberal No voters.
Holyrood election- Pro European, pro democracy, no foodbanks, pro NHS, Pro Scotland….
ReplyDeleteAnd independence? Mibbies?
DeleteNOT pro European. That just pointlessly alienates a significant number of people.
DeleteYes, there’s no point campaigning on a pro-EU platform. It’s the modern day equivalent of the old argument about an Indy Scotland being a republic instead of a monarchy. Could well be how things turn out, but it’s an issue for the people to decide on after Indy is achieved. The first GE in an independent Scotland would be the time to nail your colours to those masts.
DeleteIn all fairness these elections are a victory for voters and not any political party including Reform. Trust and liking in politicians of any flavour is at rock bottom - we, the electorate, despise the lot. All of them.
ReplyDeleteIt's the thing Swinney got right at the ridiculous "far right" convention. It's not about far right, it's about the self-serving dunderheids in politics. Which many people think is ALL of them.
Happy Bank Holiday!
C'mon Bozzah, once again for Scotland!
DeleteYi2 a wee Tory Labourite in our midst
DeleteYIR2. They are all as bad as each other is a trope used by the MSM and BBC in Scotland to normalise the appalling conduct of unionist parties and drag Indy supporting parties down to their level in the eyes of the more gullible and uninformed in the electorate.
DeleteOh? We have bank holidays here now do we?
DeleteYIRF2 just likes to read wot he's wrote, his allegiance is to himself and his mirror
DeleteIf you're waiting by your letter box for anything from the Royal Mail on Monday you'll be there till Tuesday. A lot of companies here observe UK bank holidays - and not Scottish ones. You see couriers trying to deliver to businesses on Scottish Bank Holidays. The clue is in the word "Bank".
DeleteU.K. means england
DeleteWings will be archiving this!
ReplyDeleteAnd who can blame him? It's a cracking blogpost, even if I do say so myself.
DeleteLaying him is probably as close to free money as you'd ever get - but could you explain, I'm obviously not up on betting and am after free money!
DeleteDon't know if you're trolling me or not, but the idea is that Farage is more or less 100% certain not to become Tory leader, but the market is saying he has an 8% chance or something of the sort. So in theory you could make an 8% profit on whatever you stake, but the huge snag is that your money would be tied up until there is a new Tory leader, and there is no way of knowing how long that would be. So yes, if you're KC or the Reform troll, go for it. Stake thousands.
DeleteI am sorry I am not trolling I really do not understand. do you mean bet against his becoming leader?
DeleteYes. But don't do it unless you're happy to have your money tied up until there is a new Tory leader.
DeleteThe Tories go from bad to worse with leaders. Compared to Badenoch Truss was an incredibly competent genius.
ReplyDeleteNext Gory leader to be - David Lammy. Yes, I know.
Who cares what kind of Tory the next Tory leader is going to be? A Tory is a Tory, Farage is a rich cunt and Starmer is an arsehole!!! They are ALL lining their pockets from Scotlands rich abundant resources!!!
DeleteAnon@4:49am,
DeleteA pathetic post from a sad desperate Nat.
YIRF2 is lonely
DeleteDifference between a Brit Nat and independence supporter? The latter has a conscience
DeleteAnon@11:50am,
DeleteLOL
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Dianne Abbott seems like a sensible choice. She's good with numbers and Corbyn said she's a good ride.
ReplyDeleteRule Britannia.
ReplyDeleteProud of the Romans and their empire are we?
DeleteRemains to be seen how well Reform will do in Scotland next year, but what these local elections in England seem to confirm is that, not content with blowing both feet off with brexit, that same electorate is still as thick as two short planks and now wants to blow both arms and its head off by voting for Farage.
ReplyDeleteDumb and dumber.
Cry me a river.
DeleteThe Thames ?
DeletePiccolo dumb prick!!!
ReplyDeleteIn the end it may be impossible to achieve much but if there ever was a time for YES activists to hold their noses, rejoin the SNP, and push for the prioritisation of socially inclusive independence as the priority for '26 then it is now.
ReplyDeleteOur opponents will never be so unpopular or unattractive again. Seize the time !
BBC radion scotchland promoting Reform with 2 journalists from English based papers. So to those “socialists” out there. Independence or an extreme right wing in charge? Please don’t say I abstain.
DeleteSomeone said that the sound of a baby crying is the most beautiful sound in the world, and beauty is in the eye of the beholder. But, as my heart grows colder, and colder I just feel so tired.
ReplyDeleteSomeone once said Artificial intelligence isnt as clever as its programmer thinks.
ReplyDeleteJames appears content to take the hit so to speak in allowing a small group of unionist and SNP Baaad arseholes reminiscent of a certain ardrossan linked clique from Indy days, and closely linked with certain BBC presenters and newspaper hacks, to disrupt any and all discussion on here.
ReplyDeleteThere's a very small group of "wheesht for the SNP" who have totally destroyed and removed below the line discussion on WGD, so it's just a continual bleat about how bad Starmer Trump Musk Farage England are, and are now trying to do the same on SGP.
DeleteThere used to be great discussions on WGD; not any more.
Yesindyref2 - naebody's stopping you from posting.
DeleteI think Yi2 you got to far a up your bahookie and got called out for it.
DeleteI post about disrupters on SGP and you come on bleating and whinging about WGD and the SNP. You are a big part of the problem but you genuinely don’t seem to get it. Lack of self awareness and stupidity on your part? It does seem so.
DeleteQED
DeleteIf the brave group of poo-bag anons here are posters from WGD no wonder it's gone to the dog's
DeleteYIR2. You need to go away and learn what QED means and when it’s appropriate to use it. At least you accept that you are stupid and lack self awareness. That is progress of sorts. Toddle off now.
DeleteQED yet again. You haven't addressed my posting, you haven't addressed the article, you haven't contributed anything useful, you haven't expressed any worthwhile opinion on anything, all you've done is attack me and some others from your furtive imagination.
DeleteYOU are the very definition of a useless worthless bleating arsehole of a disrupter. Well done!
But hey, stick around so we can all use you as a benchmark of uselessness.
YIR2. What are you ranting about? You are clueless. I posted on a pertinent issue. Your default response? SNP Baaad. SGP baad. You are a cretin. Incredibly you have surpassed Idiot for Scotland. And you attempted to use a Latin phrase and simply further strengthened your position as SGP idiot of the month. Do us all a favour and feck off back to WOS and the daily Mail.
DeleteHamilton Accies wippet - soon to be Broadwood wippet.
DeleteYIR2 does like his toys but their so easy to beat
DeleteSpoilsport. But he's not the sharpest blade in the block. Not so much a Jim Bowie as an Andrew Bowie. I should probably be more merciful.
DeleteOoooft. YIR2 has been owned, lock stock and barrel. His lack of self awareness stops him being embarrassed. Interesting that not even his two wee regular (cough cough) anon pals defend him anymore. It’s entertaining up to a point but there are political developments that informed adults need to discuss, so it would be nice if he’d waddle on back to WOS. Or he could try getting a job to keep himself occupied instead of sponging off the rest of us. There’s an idea. Maybe Nige can offer him a job.
Deletepoor andra above even alba wont take him as a member
DeleteIf Scotland votes for Reform then it gets rid of the SNP and we'll all miss the Tories and Labour so much we'll want them back
ReplyDeleteWho writes the script for the Scotsman these days ? Stuart Campbell?
The reverend has no connection with the Hootsmon, though he is available to be their Somerset correspondent.
DeleteThe only way to save the Tory party (and I don't want that to happen easily) is to bring back Boris. However this would save us in England, and quite probably you in Scotland, from Farage.
ReplyDeleteFarage certainly will boost Scottish independence, but that still doesn't make it a certainty. It's quite a gamble to take.
Swinney is yet again focusing on Reform UK:
ReplyDelete"John Swinney stresses 'threat' of Nigel Farage after English elections"
but as some dude says in the National:
https://archive.is/toIoD
"... that does offer a golden opportunity to the SNP and the wider Scottish independence movement to make the case that no help is coming from south of the border, and that independence is the only way of breaking free from a dystopian non-choice between Starmer and Farage." or indeed Badenoch or her successor.
The thing is this: focus on a negative "far right is bad", and that's what's left in peoples' minds. SGP puts it better - "golden opportunity".
Which means what the SNP need to do is be positive positive positive - and even more positive. Don't treat the electorate as though we're stupid - many of us now are suffering from Westminster's policies. Even as far as couples planning just one baby as that means they can afford to spend what they like on it. How sad is that?
In no particular order, for the benefits of Independence, the SNp can instead of negativity talk about:
Trying to end child poverty
Extra child help for all
Benefits no matter how many kids
Winter fuel allowances
Zone energy prices - well, Scotland would be our own zone
etc.
It needs to be hard cash incentives, not "progressive" waffle. And yet the two are really the same thing in many ways, it's the way it's packaged by ivory tower politicos turns people off.
ALBA Party Leader Kenny MacAskill has written to the First Minister John Swinney urging him to commit to taking part in a meeting of all Independence Party leaders.
ReplyDeleteDear John,
I am writing to you and to all leaders of the pro-Independence parties, to propose that we convene a meeting of all the respective leaders where we can discuss and, I hope, chart a clear direction of travel towards delivering Independence.
We both served throughout the entirety of Alex Salmond’s government, from the historic breakthrough in 2007 through to the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum and its aftermath. I am sure you will agree that it was an exciting time for those involved, and one which we can all look back on with a great deal of pride in what we were able to achieve for the people of Scotland.
Key to our success was the ability to work with individuals with whom we did not agree on everything, but with whom we could work on an issue-by-issue basis. Alex set the tone and as Finance Secretary you played a positive and constructive role.
During your own time as First Minister, you have demonstrated a willingness to work with the Alba Party to deliver and pass your recent budget. If you are willing to convene a summit on combating the rise of populism and the far right in Scotland then surely we must be able to work together for Independence.
The need for Scottish Independence has never been greater or more urgent. In this week alone we have seen the end of oil refining at Grangemouth and it has been revealed that 80,000 children in Scotland are living in extreme poverty.
It is my assessment that the Independence movement is crying out for each of the pro-Independence parties to work together in pursuit of our common aim: Scottish Independence. Indeed that was the position I put forward during the recent Alba Party leadership election, and one to which I remain committed.
Each of our parties will undoubtedly have disagreement on aspects of policy, which is perfectly reasonable—if not desirable—in a movement that is, and always has been a broad church. However, that should not prevent us putting country before party and working together to achieve Scottish Independence.
That is why I am calling on you, and each of the pro-Independence party leaders, to commit to taking part in an Independence Summit to discuss how we make the next Holyrood Election a plebiscite election, by for example agreeing on a clear and unambiguous statement to be included in each of our parties manifestos.
I look forward to your response.
Yours for Scotland,
Kenny MacAskill
Leader, ALBA Party
Will ash Regan approve?
ReplyDeleteIn principle Kenny’s proposal is a good one but the revelations on here about his party make people very wary. The remit of the summit needs to be nailed down in advance and those invited to attend needs to commit in writing to a 100% commitment to Independence and ALL party politics, together with mobile phones and recording devices, have to be left at the door. The representatives have to disengage from their own party functions. And some who currently have no party such as Joanne Cherrry must be invited. It also needs a hard as nails coordinator willing to keep all involved in line. You can begin to understand why this is not as easy as just saying let’s do it. And FAOD nutters like Chapman and her cohort can be nowhere near it.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP cannot have anything to do with Alba, they're vote losers for the SNP and Kenny McAskill knows it
DeleteNotice how it's always about the SNP joining others but never them doing the reverse
I believe Kenny McAskill is a genuine independence supporter and should not be following Salmond's political trash strategy of trying to make the SNP look bad at every opportunity like Salmond had his chance and refused it for the promise of devo max and the English did what the English do best, they FKD him and Scotland
Kenny needs to get in the tent and pee out on the English instead of peeing into the SNP tent
Cherry was seen in Glasgow the other week in an Italian restaurant with another ex MP Gibson - plotting? JK Rowling was not there I was informed.
DeletePlotting?!? Ah - what were they eating, then we might be able to guess what they were plotting about! Pizza - they want a piece of the action. Minestrone? They want to dunk Swinney in the soup. Spaghetti? I'll leave that one to the imagination ...
Delete"Notice how it's always about the SNP joining others but never them doing the reverse"
DeleteQ: Have the SNP reached out to the wider independence movement for the purpose of working together?
If the SNP were to organise a Constitutional Convention etc I'm sure Alba and others would participate, why hasn't it?
The Alba tail to wag the SNP dog.
DeleteThe ISP tail to wag the Alba dog !
DeleteThis Reform rise in England might be a bit of a blessing in disguise for us Scots.
ReplyDeleteWe can now sit back and see those planks ruin 10 local authorities down there for the next year, before we decide who to vote for in our own national election.
Should be a fun watch.
You say that but it now means we will have Tory Labour Liberal Democrat and Reform in opposition now, and that not counting the BBC and STV parties
DeleteWe're getting battered by the English from all sides, they'll be on our doorsteps and in our houses soon like red crossed English crusader Jehovah's witnesses ramming their Spitfires and flags down our throats
That will only increase the appetite of most Scots to get away from that type of British-Englishness, by doing our own thing.
Delete“……….. most Scots………"
DeleteLOL
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