GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov / Sky, 18th-19th May 2025):
Reform UK 29% (+1)
Labour 22% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 10% (+1)
Labour 22% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 17% (+1)
Conservatives 16% (-2)
Greens 10% (+1)
SNP 2% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
The data tables don't appear to be on the YouGov website yet, so take the SNP figure with a pinch of salt - I'm getting it from the Wikipedia list of polls, but the only source listed there is a tweet from Sam Coates, and that tweet excludes the SNP figure altogether.
I've speculated for ages about a potential tipping point where Reform UK clearly establish themselves as the main right-wing challengers to Labour and the remaining Tory vote starts to melt away as a result. Are we now looking at that tipping point? If so, will Tory MPs start to defect to Reform in significant numbers?
It's also worth pointing out that Labour are still not properly in mid-term yet, so there's a very real potential for them to end up in fourth or even fifth place at some point during this parliament.
UPDATE: The data tables are now out, and although the SNP's unusually low 2% GB-wide vote share is confirmed, the Scottish subsample is OK for them: SNP 28%, Labour 19%, Reform UK 18%, Liberal Democrats 15%, Greens 11%, Conservatives 8%. It may be the implausibly high Green vote that has led to the SNP being a touch lower than normal.
It's hard faced with the continuing piety, platitudes and evasiveness of the leadership but, in present circumstances, voting SNP - even the feebler candidates is the only, imperfect, fire wall that we have against the racism and thought free desperation that Reform lives off.
ReplyDeleteSorry to point out to you alt clut but voting SNP in 2026 will not stop Farage being FM. If Swinney doesn’t get the finger out and get us out of the UK then he could be the last FM as Farage shuts down Holyrood.
DeleteSwinney is doing his utmost to dampen any hope for independence.
ReplyDeleteSwinney is a devolutionist.
DeleteIf only we had Alba in government. 😉
DeleteGod loves a trier eh?
DeleteIt is obvious to most normal people that saying a party is crap does not make another crap party any good.
DeleteLabour have not been in power for a year yet so plenty of potential for anything
ReplyDeleteIndeed. They have a long way yet to fall.
DeleteI assume they don't distinguish between Greens and Scottish Greens?
ReplyDeleteNo they don't.
DeleteLabour are at the club end of the hockey stick on the best fit curve. This should grant them some respite, but Leadership approval ratings amongst Labour voters are: Kier Starmer net -5%, Ed Davie net +17% (source YouGov). All is lost in any case, RefUK would gain a clear majority were a Westminster election to take place today. Labour are in a distant second place. The London boroughs, Merseyside, and greater Manchester are their only redoubts, and Manchester is vulnerable.
ReplyDeleteBritish Labour are a thousand times worse than the Tories and they were bloody awful.
ReplyDeleteFarage and Reform will be a thousand times worse than Labour. This life is all due to the SNP failing Scotland and not getting us out of the miserable UK.
Ach, there's always 'Liberate Scotland' !
Delete
Delete1.09….should that not be the Scottish public failing Scotland when they voted for Labour last year!!! You can’t just blame the SNP for all your woes, maybe they are of your own making!!!
Well said Anon@ 2-34pm
DeleteAnon at 1.09. What have done apart from post on here blaming someone else? SFA? Thought so.
Delete2.05 ….idiot.
Delete2.34……idiot.
5.28……idiot.
8.27……an idiot who thinks he can read the mind of posters.
Each of the above posters have all probably said the SNP is the ONLY vehicle for independence but here they are saying the failure to get independence is somebody else’s fault.
Yes that makes them idiots.
11.29…wow is that it!!! Are you still at primary school?
DeleteIt might just be noise, but I notice that Labour's drop is matched by the LD and Green gains. It's plausible that a drift to Reform from Labour encourages people to go LD and Green. In wealthy constituencies where Tory voters don't go to Reform there may be a rush to the Lib Dems. That would be collapse and you'd be left with a conservative shell, a slightly up LibDems and a powerful Reform - an openly right-wing English nationalist party. Eek.
ReplyDeleteSubsample is encouraging for SNP.
ReplyDeleteIt is indeed, 28% is excellent.
DeleteDoes Alf Baird comment on this blog or is he banned
DeleteNeither (unless he comments anonymously).
DeleteOK. Thanks.
DeleteKC that was obviously from your dream last night and confirms you live in your own unionist world.
ReplyDelete