Friday, May 2, 2025

Analysis of the English local elections - and the tightest by-election result in modern history

Just a quick note to let you know I have a new analysis piece at The National about the English local elections results and also the Runcorn by-election, which broke all records as the closest by-election result in modern history, and thus brought back memories of Stephen Gethins' two-vote, multi-recount victory in North-East Fife in the 2017 general election (although naturally the English media forgot all about that, so were instead harking back to a different example from February 1974!).  You can read the article HERE.

38 comments:

  1. How they'll miss us when we're gone…

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anon 2.13 you are a sado.

    Why are folk worried about are far right Farage government in 2029 ? The Labour PM has it under control- he is to dee mair o the same only faster: starver a few mair pensioners and pay aff the rich to the cost of the many. Simple!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Farage is the next evolution of Boris Johnson. What was once unthinkable becomes inevitable, and a great excuse to leave the union. You know, if we had a Scotgov with any interest in that sort of thing.

      Delete
    2. What's the lie? Farage is looking like the favourite to win the 2029 general election. He's despicable. So was Boris Johnson. The SNP did nothing about independence throughout his reign, and they're showing no signs of changing that now.

      Delete
  3. I agree with the first part. I think it's a long shot, where we are now. We were well snookered in 2022. It could have been done, but we were done instead.

    I disagree that it takes the demolition of the SNP to change this, however. That would only be the case if the public at large considered the SNP to be a unionist outfit working in bad faith. Someone should really poll on that. My bet is that a high percentage of people would still answer yes to the question: "Is the SNP the party of Scottish independence?"

    As long as the majority of people consider independence and the SNP to be connected, they are connected. That's how it works.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the biggest potential issue the SNP face now: Voter apathy.

      Reform is feeding on people being sick of all of the main Parties in England. Up here I don't think they'll have the same success but I can see a lot of people not bothering to vote.

      Delete
    2. Results in England are confirming the polls. Farage's lot are doing better than any of us would like in Scotland, too. Not enough to win, but enough to become a major player in opposition. They're getting elected to Holyrood in good numbers and aren't going away.

      As for apathy: I abstained last year. Lifelong SNP voter in westminster elections until now. I’m not apathetic, I’m angry at them for squandering every chance they get for independence. I wanted to send them a signal. Me and half a million others. They heard it, but have they listened?

      Four years and counting until PM Farage. Tick tock…

      Delete
    3. Ach, there's always Alba.

      Delete
    4. Not in my constituency. Only time they've ever been on my ballot was in 2021 on the list, and I voted for them then. Never had the chance to since.

      (And I wouldn't likely vote for them again, knowing what they've become.)

      Delete
  4. I’m angry at the apathetic who don’t vote but complain. What do you think would happen if you don’t vote? Personally Imsuspect you aren’t SNP but the usual britnat troll.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's a variation on " I voted Remain, but..)

      Delete
    2. Nope. Absolutely not. I've voted SNP since 1999, every time in my consitutuency (Greens on Holyrood list, then Alba once in 2021). Didn't vote at all in 2024. There was no option that wouldn't make me boak. Red Tory, Yellow Tory, Tory Tory, or Swinney's Devolutionist SNP. Boak boak boak boak!

      What do you think we should do if the SNP does nothing about independence? Voting for them to do more of the same seems as self-defeating to me as you say my abstention seems to you.

      Delete
    3. @3:36. I also voted Remain, ofc, and Yes. My principles haven't changed a bit. It's the SNP that's lost me.

      Delete
    4. SNP votes in WM elections:
      2019: ~1.24 million votes
      2024: ~0.72 million votes, a loss of ~520,000 voters – more than a 40% decline in raw numbers.

      Which do you think is more likely: 520,000 scunnered Scots or half a million agents provocateur? Does it hurt having your fingers jammed so deep in your ears, btw?

      Delete
    5. Always excuses from the 90 patriots. I don’t vote so it’s the snp to blame. If only they get independence then I will vote for them. The jump on the bandwagon groupies.

      Delete
    6. Spurred on by the Rev.

      Delete
  5. I trust the half million won't moan when Farage gets into Downing Street.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Voting SNP won’t stop him. Not a single vote in all of Scotland will. It’s the UK, remember. England decides. Only independence works.

      Hint: not just talking about independence. If he’s our prime minister, we’re all getting fucked.

      Delete
    2. And how to get independence ?

      Delete
    3. SHUT UP AND STOP GHOSTING ME

      Delete
    4. Less of the caps, please !

      Delete
  6. So vote Brit Nat? You sad labour supporter

    ReplyDelete
  7. England just voted NAZI. The SNP 1 and 2 strategy and asking the English for a Section 30 again will guaranteed we are fucked. I will see all of you in the queue for the Gas Chambers a few years down the road when Farage is England's PM. Thanks for nothing you SNP Devolutionist Yoon worms.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Chill out IFS 😏

      Delete
    2. Ifs will rescue us by stamping his feet and declaring udi.

      Delete
    3. IFS is declaring UDA ?

      Delete
  8. It's time to reform this country.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That can only be done with independence.

      Delete
  9. I wonder if Reform will be running a Holyrood coalition government next year?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No. Any other stupid questions, please do let us know.

      Delete
    2. Professor Betty GrantMay 2, 2025 at 9:04 PM

      No. They won't.

      Delete
    3. You think the SNP are going to be running a coalition government with Labour next year?

      Delete
    4. No. Don't be silly. It'll be SNP/Green.

      Delete
  10. And Rangers are gaunnie win the Champions League.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Don’t need the sectarianism. Scotland has enough divide and rule

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. OK Hamilton Accies will win the Champions League.

      Delete
  12. Neither did you mention Gethins in your article

    ReplyDelete