I've been awaiting the first GB poll since the Trump v Zelensky showdown with a degree of trepidation, because that incident has at least temporarily caused the London media to fall back in love with Keir Starmer. It's been a rare opportunity for a British Prime Minister to pose as a figure of genuine international significance (and of course the same is also true for President Macron in France and Chancellor-designate Merz in Germany). Labour strategists have been briefing the media about how Starmer has just had a "Falklands moment" that will turn the domestic political situation upside down - that's a bit of a stretch given that any British military intervention is still hypothetical, but nevertheless I did wonder if Labour might get a moderate boost in the polls. As it turns out, the new YouGov poll shows only a small margin-of-error increase for Labour, which I suspect Starmer's people will be very disappointed with.
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 2nd-3rd March 2025):
Labour 26% (+2)
Reform UK 25% (-)
Conservatives 21% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 14% (-2)
Greens 9% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 32%, Labour 21%, Reform UK 16%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Greens 6%
This breaks the remarkable sequence of four consecutive YouGov polls showing a Reform UK lead. However, in all of those polls the lead was either one point or two points, so even if public opinion had remained absolutely static, it would have been statistically inevitable that the sequence would be broken before too long due to the margin of error. My guess is that the increase for Labour may actually be real on this occasion, but it's tiny and the obvious question is "will this be as good as it ever gets for Starmer?" He can't expect the kind of generous coverage he's received over the last few days to occur very often.
And just as an aside, it's a bit troubling that Starmer's strategists seem to have the mindset that cultivating military confrontation with Russia is a legitimate tactic to improve Labour's domestic popularity. Russia and the UK are both nuclear powers, albeit with an enormous mismatch in Russia's favour in terms of the number of nukes each country has. It would, I'd suggest, be a bit of a shame if the population of this country was wiped out due to an ill-conceived attempt to bolster Keir Starmer's net ratings in Survation polls.
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SNP 32%, Labour 21%, Reform UK 16%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Greens 6%
ReplyDeleteThis is remarkable.
You'll need to explain that.
DeleteIn what way? That's fairly typical of recent months.
DeleteIt is, Reform UK seem to have come from nowhere. How did that happen?
DeleteThis has been going on for months, it's not unusual at all.
Deletewe need an "argentinian pilot in a skyhawk" moment
ReplyDeleteYou are Brian Spilei and I claim my 5 pre-mined Bitcoins.
DeleteSwinney and Forbes are the Maverick and Goose of independence.
ReplyDeleteGobbledegook.
ReplyDeleteHalf the population outright support independence.
ReplyDeleteSNP has a solid third of electorate support. Never seems to go below.
"Never seems to go below" not good at basic maths are you. 32% in the poll above is below a third.
DeleteQuick poll. Do you think a man can be a woman? If your answer is YES then INDY is fucked!
ReplyDeleteStop lying
DeleteWhy gender politics has become such a toxic issue for the independence confuses me. The only party in the Scottish Parliament to vote against it were the Tories, even Labour and Liberal Democrat voted for it. Also the arguments that are made against it tend to be rooted in privilege, which has been a factor of the the feminist movement which while it wants to challenge the patriarchy it seems to also want to maintain other social hierarchies, for instance originally poorer women were excluded and then black and other ethnic groups of women were excluded, and then in the 80s and 90s lesbians were marginalised by the movement even though they were often the group most actively involved. Feminism needs to more radical in it's approach if it ever wants to change the system and I find it laughable that a tiny group of amongst the most marginalised community there us is being labelled the most dangerous threat to biological women there is, when in actual fact 1700 women have been murdered by cis gendered men in the last 15 years 90% of these killings were by a family member or friend most commonly a current or ex partner at 61% and sons committed 9% of these murders. If you want to truly protect women the issue is not trans women it is husbands, lovers, sons, other male family members and men she already knows.
DeleteDo you really not understand what happened? The issue was hijacked by cynical hypocritical unionists and used to undermine the SNP and the broader Indy movement. It will remain a useful weapon in their armoury for the foreseeable future. If Indy is your priority you get on with arguing on policies and issues that show people the huge benefits of Indy. If Indy is not your priority you continue pursuing your divisive agenda and continue providing ammunition to the unionists. Up to you.
Delete12.29pm - It’s the SNP providing the ammo to the unionists.
DeleteAnon at 3.31. Care to explain how you come to that conclusion? Before responding, read up on cognitive dissonance.
DeleteStop lying.
ReplyDeleteThe Rev is trolling you James.
ReplyDeleteNah, he's not creative enough for that. Even when he poses as a woman, the Stu Style is unmistakeable.
DeleteIf Starmer's political legacy turns out to be nothing more than a four year buffer zone protecting us from a Reform government, that will be enough.
ReplyDeleteEnough for what? The subsequent Reform govt?
DeleteThe rev has nothing better to do.
ReplyDelete