Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Find Out Now / Herald, 15th-20th January 2025):
SNP 31% (-4)
Labour 19% (-)
Reform UK 13% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (-3)
Greens 10% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
Alba 2% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 25% (-1)
Labour 15% (-2)
Greens 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+3)
Conservatives 13% (-1)
Reform UK 11% (-)
Alba 7% (+1)
Seats projection: SNP 51, Labour 16, Greens 15, Liberal Democrats 15, Conservatives 15, Reform UK 9, Alba 8
SNP + GREENS: 66 SEATS
ALL OTHER PARTIES: 63 SEATS
SNP + GREEN MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS
PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 74 SEATS
ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 55 SEATS
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 19 SEATS
The drop in the SNP's vote in such a favourable poll for pro-independence parties is a bit of an oddity, and on the constituency vote can be at least partly explained by the unusually high Green vote. As Michael points out in the comments section below, it may well be that the Greens will not, as in past Holyrood elections, stand in most constituency seats, so even if 10% of the electorate genuinely do plan to vote Green in the constituencies (rather doubtful in my view), a lot of that vote may end up going to the SNP anyway. OK, we know there's a bit of bad blood between the Greens and the SNP after what Humza Yousaf did last year, but I do still think Green supporters are more likely to break for the SNP than for unionist parties.
Alba's list vote share and seats projection should be taken with a very, very heavy dose of salt. Find Out Now seem to have settled in as one of two polling firms that regularly show Alba on an exaggerated share of the list vote, and as things stand they remain the only polling firm showing Alba on course for list seats. The projection from the most recent poll conducted by the other Alba-friendly firm (Norstat) showed the party on zero seats.
Because Alba are far more likely to end up with zero seats rather than with eight, it's both important and encouraging that the projection from the new poll shows that the SNP and Greens are set for a majority between them, without needing help from any other Yes parties.
The Tories ought to be deeply alarmed that they've been overtaken by Reform on the constituency ballot. This reflects the pattern seen in recent GB-wide polls, and we could be nearing a tipping point where the Tory vote suddenly collapses completely due to right-of-centre voters recognising that Reform UK seem to be emerging as the leading right-wing party in all three constituent nations of Great Britain.
Although the mainstream media bizarrely portrayed the 2021 Holyrood election as a good news outcome for Anas Sarwar and Labour, it was in fact the FIFTH successive Holyrood election in which Labour's number of seats had dropped. This poll suggests that will happen again for a SIXTH successive election, with Labour slumping from 22 seats to 16. A minor technical consolation for Sarwar is that he'd be leader of the largest single opposition party, overtaking the Tories - but in fact Labour would only be one seat ahead of the Greens, Lib Dems and Tories who would all be tied on 15 seats apiece.
Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:
SNP 31% (-3)
Labour 18% (-2)
Reform UK 17% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
Greens 7% (+1)
Seats projection: SNP 31, Labour 11, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 5
(Note: I've taken the above seats projection direct from the Herald write-up, but there must be an error somewhere because the numbers should add up to 57, but don't.)
Reform's five-point advantage over the Tories for Westminster represents even more of a horror-story for the Tories than the Holyrood constituency ballot, and is arguably even more important.
* * *
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Two issues I rarely see the Scottish Press address with these polling figures:
ReplyDelete(1) Scottish Greens wont stand in most constituencies - so where does their 10% constituency vote share go? I'd guess more to the SNP than elsewhere.
(2) Will Reform stand in constituencies? They see themselves as 'replacing' the Tories - so maybe they will stand on the constituency and list, particularly if they have the cash? It seems unclear at the moment. If they do stand constituency candidates, that's a disaster for the Tories and probably bad for Labour too.
Separately (3) I note as an aside that Michelle Ballantyne (the only leader Reform 'Scotland' have had) being forced out is a sign that Reform is already full of infighting in response to being run from England as a Nigel Farage front. You can read her scathing resignation letter (only partly reported by media) here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1744756149302634?multi_permalinks=2067495113695401&hoisted_section_header_type=recently_seen
Thoughts James?
Excellent poll.
ReplyDeleteHere’s hoping future polls from the likes of Survation and YouGov produce similar numbers.
In terms of the U.K. GE part of this poll, as noted above Greens aren’t at all likely to stand in more than a few seats. I agree with Michael above, surely most of those votes go to SNP. Which would make all the difference in many, many seats.
ReplyDeleteThe poll indicates dome-heid running a coalition government with Labour?
ReplyDeleteHow on earth does it indicate that? On these numbers, an SNP-Green deal would be far, far, *far* more likely.
DeleteGood poll.
ReplyDeleteI agree that a fair proportion of the Constit Green vote will probably go to SNP in reality, boosting their vote and seat count.
Irrespective, SNP is still, by a country mile, the dominant force in the Scottish Parliament and most popular Party in Scotland - and, for a Party now approaching its 18th consecutive year in power, absolutely remarkable.
The prospect of another Majority Pro Indy Govt/Parliament is also gratifying, with Sarwar and Labour left in the sad shadows yet again.
Not a word about independence from this devolutionist diddy imposter. Bring back the real David Francis. No caps or random dots ………means you are a phoney David.
DeleteFrancis silent on the fact that the SNP is on 25% of the vote on the List for Holyrood. Yes that’s right only 25% - how the mighty SNP has fallen and it’s all down to horrible creatures like David Francis. I mean even Alba are getting 8% on the List for Holyrood.
DeleteNo, they're not, you can't even read. They're on 7%.
DeleteSo even at a supposed ebb pro indy doing well.
DeleteSecond wind of indy could do it..
"The prospect of another Majority Pro Indy Govt/Parliament is also gratifying, with Sarwar and Labour left in the sad shadows yet again."
DeleteAnd then what ya Franny?
Anon 1.21am ok I got it wrong re the Alba vote share it was 7% not 8% but I note you do not dispute the fact that the SNP is only on 25% vote share on the list which is the main point of my comment. So I can read. Pity you cannae see what is staring you in the face and you choose to ignore. Why has the SNP vote share crumbled?
DeleteTrue Indy supporters are interested only in the overall yes vote, irrespective of which Indy party they go to. Closet unionists with their SNP bad mantra don’t want Indy. Where do you stand?
DeleteAnon at 1.08pm you cannae even address your question properly.
DeleteScotland the cause.
ReplyDeleteLet's see her flourish
If the Holyrood voting system is supposed to give a reasonable approximation of proportional representation then how does a 45% vote share on the regional list for SNP/ Greens/ALBA combined give a pro-Independence majority of 19 seats - 74 to 55 seats?
ReplyDeleteTotal seats 129. 45% = 58 seats compared to the 74 quoted.
The voting system while more proportional than FPP still favours the party that receives the most constituency votes, the list system also disadvantages minor parties and requires somewhere between 3% and 5% of the vote to gain representation, when you exclude votes for smaller parties it increases the representation of larger parties
DeleteAnon at 6.02am - I am well aware of the min vote % situation. My main point is that many people say the Regional list % vote is the key/critical vote not the constituency vote. Yet the seat outcome in this poll does not back that up by a long way. So what is the true reality?
DeleteThis is obviously well over the heads of the moronic anons that usually troll on SGP.
SNP 31% (-4), SNP 25% (-1) and SNP 31% (-3) is a bit of a worry though. I wonder if there were any previous questions that could cause that like "What do you think of Swinney completely messing up X"?
ReplyDeleteThe previous 3 polls were constit 35%, 35% and 37%; list 31%, 26% and 32%. Maybe a bit if a blip?
Anon at 1:07
ReplyDeleteWrong, it was me.
I don't always have to use '.....' and
'-', pal.
And already a few very typical Albaist responses to a very good poll for all us Yessers.
They REALLY cannot stop turning every single thing on here into an attack on SNP.
Pathetic wee scrotes.
"Albaist responses"
DeleteWTF? Are you a total moron, or do you just pretend to be one?
I just copy you.
DeleteAnyone who thinks the SNP going from 62 MSPs to 51 is a "very good poll" has more than a single screw loose. Same as the SNP having gone from 48 MPs to just 9 was a "good result for the SNP" last year. Or is a pretendy SNP member of the Mars branch.
DeleteThe poll is OK for Indy but.
"PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 74 SEATS
DeleteANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 55 SEATS"
Mate, that's a good poll.
2.16am. Wow, is that the branch David Francis is a member of. The mars branch. No wonder people say he is on a different planet. Good to know.
DeleteThe ostensibly pro independence parties retaining control in our Parliament is important, and better than the alternatives, but for years now has proven to be only a defensive success.
ReplyDeleteIn what way does such an electoral outcome move us actively forward towards independence ? We are still going to need either very different leadership, with a strategy that goes beyond being 'sensible' in parliament, or a whole additional movement with a wider concept of political strategy, to make any advance.
Peter A Bell is the man.
DeleteOdd poll. Looks like an outlier to me, excepting some obvious trends (Labour in doldrums and Reform consolidating at their elevated levels , being the most obvious).
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely correct. The current SNP and Greens are only notionally pro independence. That is all. They are about as committed to independence as The National which is to say occasionally and if they've not got something else in their left wing agenda to talk about.
ReplyDeleteI remain completely unconvinced that a pro indy majority at HR26 is a better thing than a spell under a hapless Sarwar tapping into a disastrous Starmer government. The latter has far more potential for increasing indy support by the large amount we apparently need.
“ Notionally pro independence “ naw they are devolutionists more than happy with the current situation.
DeleteZzzzzzzzzzzz
DeleteJohn Swinney has led SNP to success.
ReplyDeleteAccording to this (https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/scottish-parliament?election=2021s&cSNP=31&cCON=12&cLAB=19&cLD=10&cGRN=10&cREF=13&rSNP=25&rCON=13&rLAB=15&rGRN=13&rLD=13&rALBA=8&rREF=9#Scotland) the SNP, Greens and Alba would have 75 seats, a majority of 21 seats. (The Herald piece seems to have overstated Reform by 1 seat and understated Greens by 1).
ReplyDeleteBetter than once of the aggressively pro-Unionist parties - or combination thereof - being in the majority.
But unless these supposedly pro-Independence parties actively stand on a credible plan to restore Scotland's statehood it will make no difference in terms of achieving that aim.
It's getting a bit boring in here again - so why not check out my gorgeous new Profile Pic on X?
ReplyDeleteThe account features me taking part in loads of tough political discussions with a certain scheme goblin. (And see if you can spot the contributions by my Newcastle Course personal trainer!)
And..Who is advising Ash? Cause honestly this is embarrassing. Doing no favours for Alba and I say that as a member.
When you drill down into the details you see that it projects John Swinney is going to lead SNP into another SNP-led majority government which is very successful.
ReplyDeleteeh?
DeleteIFS is raging lol
ReplyDeleteDeclan. Oh no I'm not but I am laughing at you keeping your mouth shut about forecasts for Holyrood after your credibility busting forecast at the UK GE last year. You made yourself look a fool but that is nothing new for you Skier.
DeleteLol as I said he is absolutely raging haha.
DeleteHappy Days.
ReplyDeleteVote SNP.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
DeleteLOL.
Looking at this poll suggests that we should vote SNP as they're the only political party capable of winning.
ReplyDeleteSNP doing better than I thought they would at this stage. Step up John. Your destiny awaits.
ReplyDeleteWell said. John Swinney is popular with people in Scotland.
Delete"Step up John. Your destiny awaits."
DeleteWhere's that? Prison?
No shortage of nasty wee nobody SNP badders today. Not happy bunnies. Show us the evidence, or are you just a lying wee arsehole?
Delete"Show us the evidence, or are you just a lying wee arsehole?"
DeleteEvidence for what, Mr Angry?
John Swinney has turned the SNP ship around.
ReplyDeleteYes, it's not heading for the rocks anymore.
DeleteThe icebergs are bracing themselves for impact though.
Jump into the leaking Alba lifeboats.
DeleteWhit the SNP is a ship now. Please make up your mind - people used to say the SNP was the vehicle for independence. What type of ship is the ship for independence - a trawler?
DeleteJohn Swinney has shown a steady hand in his leadership of the SNP.
ReplyDelete