Why is it that every time the SNP pointlessly chuck away a precious parliamentary seat, they get patted on the back as if they've just done something really sensible and mature?

When it emerged that Stephen Flynn wanted to challenge a sitting SNP MSP for a place in Holyrood, but also wanted to retain his Westminster seat until the next general election if he was successful, I made the point that the one thing the SNP needed to avoid at all costs was a needless Westminster by-election in Aberdeen South.  In other words, there had to be one of two outcomes: either a) Flynn had to be persuaded to abandon his plan to switch to Holyrood and instead rededicate himself to his important role as leader of the fourth largest group in the Commons (by far the most preferable option), or b) his critics had to accept his temporary dual mandate through gritted teeth.

The SNP making strategic mis-steps has become such an established pattern in recent years that it's no great surprise to me that after only a few short days they've managed to end up with precisely the worst-case scenario I warned against.  They've persuaded Flynn to abandon his plan to have a dual mandate, but not to abandon his plan to switch to Holyrood.  That makes a by-election almost inevitable - unless of course Flynn fails in his bid for Holyrood selection.  But that seems highly unlikely, because we all know what this is really about - the leadership faction want Flynn in Holyrood so he can be the next leader.  I was asked last night how long I thought John Swinney would stay on as leader, and I said "at least two more years, because the ruling faction want him to hang on until they can replace him with Stephen Flynn, preventing Kate Forbes from becoming First Minister is the one thing they care about above all else".  And the person I was speaking to gave me a look of total bafflement and said "WHY?"  I had to think about that for a moment, but eventually I said "well, because she's an evangelical Christian, and because she has certain private views about abortion...", and then I sort of tailed off and thought to myself "yeah, this doesn't really make any sense, does it?"  The SNP have got to stop tearing their own house down for factional reasons.

What does surprise me, although it probably shouldn't, is that having needlessly got themselves into this by-election mess, the SNP are receiving a big pat on the back from certain sections of the independence movement.  "Stephen Flynn got this one wrong, but the important thing is he's accepted that and put things right."  Well, no, actually, he's now got things even more wrong than before.  Far, far more wrong.  It reminds me of when prominent independence supporters both inside and outside the SNP were enthusiastically urging people in Rutherglen to sign the recall petition against Margaret Ferrier.  "Here's a helpful map showing you where you can sign, and don't forget to wrap up warm, now!"  Those sterling "efforts" led to a landmark by-election gain for Labour, which in turn generated momentum that led to the SNP's defeat at the general election.

Make no mistake - if the SNP stupidly bring about a by-election in Aberdeen South, they're likely to lose it and see their representation in the Commons cut from nine seats to eight.  It's not a natural SNP constituency.  Flynn only held it in July because the unionist vote was split down the middle, but in a by-election context it's likely that unionist voters would coalesce more behind one party, possibly the Tories.  Heaven only knows what momentum that might generate and what the long-term consequences might be.