First things first: I have an analysis piece at The National about yesterday's crop of four by-elections, and you can read it HERE.
The results were certainly a mixed bag. Labour's vote was well up in two and well down in the other two. The SNP vote was up in one and down in three. Of the two wards where Reform UK stood, they had a very good result in one and a poor result in the other. The Liberal Democrats had a sensational victory in one, but didn't really trouble the scorer elsewhere.
All you can really do in these situations is look at the average, and the average swing from the SNP to Labour across the four wards was just 2%. Because that's measured from the 2022 local elections when the SNP were twelve points clear of Labour nationally, it points to a Scotland-wide lead for the SNP of eight points - putting them firmly in landslide territory in Westminster terms.
Really the one and only genuinely good result for Labour yesterday was in Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse, which is frustrating because that was also the only ward where the SNP appeared to have a realistic chance of winning. However, even there the swing to Labour was only 8%, rather than the 9% falsely claimed by Anas Sarwar.
It does require an active campaign for Holyrood vote SNP 1 and other independence parties 2. Folk will vote for this.
ReplyDeleteI'm confused by how the SNP can be ahead nationally when they were second in the GE and from the four by elections are behind Labour in every single one. Even the one the Libs romped home in.
ReplyDeleteThese elections are not orkney, they are the sort of seats the SNP should be winning (or at least close) if they are winning nationally surely?
Am I out of line here?
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here and assume you're not KC indulging in concern trolling, but the first point you raise is directly addressed by the blogpost you're commenting on. The swing is not measured from the general election, but instead from the 2022 local elections, when the SNP were twelve points ahead of Labour. In two of the wards Labour were ahead of the SNP even in 2022, so no, these are not wards the SNP "should" be winning.
DeleteSupposedly one of the reasons for the drop in the SNP vote in the GE was Matheson hanging on. Well if true, perhaps it might be the same with Gray. He might be better to stand down as minister and in months he could be reappointed to the cabinet. Otherwise as well as bring down the SNP he could bring down Swinney. With Flynn jumping in over any bodies that get in his way!
ReplyDeleteI think the SNP are starting to recover from the incompetence issue, and it would be shame to go backwards again.
If the SNP had an 8 point lead over Labour, you could get for instance SNP 25 seats, Labour 24.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?type=scotland&SCOTCON=13&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=9&SCOTNAT=36&SCOTReform=9&SCOTGreen=4&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2024
And regionally?
ReplyDeleteThat's a Westminster projection. And I'm extremely sceptical about it, incidentally - I don't think Labour's vote would remain that efficient if they were eight points down.
DeleteSo better news for Holyrood compared to a few months ago.
ReplyDeleteIn a way its like back around the early 80s when me and a few of the lads walked along Lomond Drive do we owned it really. Kinx of the same
DeleteNothing to do with Mathieson, SNP voters are sick of sending MPs to Westminster for no reason
ReplyDeleteWhat will a new, shiny, smiley Flynn leadership do to advance the cause of independence that the other devolutionist 'suits' have not done ? While there's nothing else viable I'll still vote SNP but let's not delude ourselves that it's actually going anywhere decisive.
ReplyDeleteMost polling puts support for Indy well above 44%. I’m sure you’ll be pleased to hear this.
ReplyDeleteWhat the person who's been deleted did, was just take an average of the YES vote, for results where the undecideds were left in. So by the same method, NO averaged 47% this year (32 polls from wikipedia), and undecided averaged 9%, for an average poll size of 1,079.
DeleteThe wonders of cut and paste, and reforming spreadsheets!
The doorstep version is - if some dude quotes 44% YES on average, just tell them that NO was only 47% and their precious union is DOOMED.
Statista, even though they have a graph, seem to have taken one single poll, a yougov one.
Deletehttps://www.statista.com/statistics/1170409/scottish-independence/
Date, pollster, sample size, YES, NO, undecided, lead
29 Aug-3 Sep 2024 YouGov 1,063 37% 47% 16% 10%
Looks like their graph is ONLY yougov, which is pretty sh*te.
Ironically, with that high level of undecided (16%), even their selective result shows NO at - you're right - just 47%.
DeleteThe deleted poster was trying to be snide. I would have left his post up, to show him up for the unionist he is.
DeleteIt was KC. I think we've long since managed to expose KC as a unionist!
DeleteAlt Clut - why don't you stand for election with your upbeat messaging? Vote winner !
ReplyDeleteElsewhere aka Wings.
ReplyDeleteHis post so he can decide what he thinks is appropriate or not.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP cutting staff at its HQ from 26 to 16.
ReplyDeleteThe wheels are coming off the bus.
Unlike Alba who are still using horse and cart.
DeleteIf they thought Nicola Sturgeon invented the wheel they would walk.
DeleteWell she is looking pretty - no, not pretty - pretty old these days so maybe she did invent the wheel. Did Nicola invent anything else?
DeleteEh, James CORRECTLY used the 2022 LOCAL Election for comparison purposes.
ReplyDeleteSo.....the only thing 'bogus' here, would seem to be your erroneous related comment.
Apologies for double-posting.
ReplyDeleteBuffering probs.
Having belatedly caught up with the comment David was replying to, I realise that it wasn't just a difference of opinion, it was an egregiously misleading comment, so I've deleted it. I've no idea whether the guy was deliberately misleading people or if he just fundamentally misunderstood the calculation I made, but misleading people like that is just not on (and there have been several other comments doing much the same thing, quite possibly from the same person).
DeleteYeah taking a local election result and then translating it into Westminster elections makes perfect. Silly me.
DeleteI wish I could agree that your antics over the last few days were merely "silliness" on your part, Anon, but actually it's downright stupidity. Most people grasp the concept of swing, and how it can be used to extrapolate from one locality to another, or to the national picture, or yes, to an election for a different tier of government, within about five seconds. Despite having it patiently explained to you umpteen times, it still seems to be as impenetrable to you as rocket science. I'm sorry it's proving such a struggle for you, and I'm even sorrier it seems to have (for some inexplicable reason) profoundly triggered a deep psychological issue, but I really do have to say to you at this stage that your schtick of posing as an army of befuddled and indignant "casual readers" who don't like or understand swing and are downright *furious* to read about it on a blog, is wearing a bit thin now. Yup, I have spotted that your cast of diverse anonymous "casual readers" all have exactly the same writing style. Kindly take it elsewhere, and perhaps leave this blog for the vast majority of people who do like and understand swing and have done since David Butler first introduced the remarkably easy-to-grasp concept in the 1950s. Thanks.
DeleteSupporting evidence for SGP would be the UK or rather GB wide Westminster polling which shows Labour dropping from 35% to about 28% = minus 7. Whereas the last Scotland poll shows the SNP roughly at 31% as opposed to 30% in the GE 2024.
ReplyDelete7 + 1 = 8 QED
I'm going to be accused of trolling here, but how are people supposed to feel enthused about voting for the SNP anymore? I feel like that ship sailed two years ago.
ReplyDeleteWell you can always vote for the deposit losers (Alba, IPS 😂, NPS😂😂) or just vote for the unionists.
DeleteYip - looks like you’re trolling. The ship left 2 years ago ? You know it can return.
DeleteWhy would you feel enthused about voting Unionist Parties particularly Labour whose ship is certainly leaving port with increasing speed
Delete