Inverclyde West by-election result on first preference votes (7th November 2024):
Labour 34.0% (+7.9)
SNP 33.7% (+7.1)
Conservatives 15.2% (+5.7)
Alba 8.7% (+6.1)
Reform UK 8.4% (n/a)
The SNP have not won this election, but I don't think it can be overstated what a good result this is for them. It's not so much the increase in their vote share, because that can be explained by the absence of the independent candidates from 2022. It's more the lack of any swing of note from the SNP to Labour, even though the baseline is an election in which the SNP were 12.3 points ahead of Labour nationally. This result, for what it's worth, is consistent with the SNP being around 11.5 points ahead across Scotland, putting them in landslide territory, at least in Westminster terms.
It's also fair to say the SNP would probably have topped the first preference vote in the ward if it hadn't been for Alba's intervention, although they perhaps still wouldn't have won after transfers.
From memory, I think Alba's 9% of the vote may be their best ever showing in a local government ward - my recollection is that the previous record was 8% for Kamran Butt in the Southside Central ward in 2022. (Butt famously defected to the SNP only a few days later.) In recent weeks, they seem to have finally got the hang of local by-elections and have had a string of relatively decent results, particularly where they were able to run a former councillor from the area, as they were in this case. But there's a double-edged sword here, because the leadership will hype up this result to boost morale among members and to convince them that the party is marching towards list seats, which national polls suggest is simply not the case. Alba is actually flatlining on the sort of vote share that left them well short of list seats in 2021, and that problem can't be overcome with the type of bubble campaigning that is proving effective in local by-elections. The party needs to make some fundamental changes to broaden its national support base, and a false belief among members that all in the garden is rosy could prevent that process from even starting.
Fraserburgh & District by-election result on first preferences votes (7th November 2024):
Conservatives 36.3% (+3.9)
SNP 28.4% (+8.4)
Reform UK 25.9% (n/a)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+2.2)
Scottish Family Party 2.3% (+1.3)
The SNP's 8.3% increase isn't as good as it looks, because a substantial chunk of the vote went to independent candidates last time around, which explains why all parties have had a boost. But nevertheless, the SNP are the second biggest beneficiary out of five, so that's a pretty solid outcome, and they didn't fall all that far short of overhauling the Tories for what would have been a shock victory.
We've recently got used to strong Reform UK showings in by-elections, but 26% is extraordinarily high, and if this is a sign of what is happening in traditional Tory areas, there could be carnage at the Holyrood election.
More results to follow...
reform seem to be polling well in the NE
ReplyDeleteRegarding Reform, you have to take into account the high number of English residents in the Aberdeenshire area - most of whom are in the 'older voter' category and who probably voted for Brexit as well. I speak as someone who lives in Aberdeenshire. The one thing that these elections tell me is that there is no room for two 'Independence' parties. I do not class either the Greens or the SSP as being 'Independence' parties as Independence is not the sole raison d'être for either of those parties, but it is for both SNP and Alba.
ReplyDeleteAnon at 1.21pm says independence is the sole raison d'etre for the SNP. Laughable - not for the last 10 years. Men in skirts counselling raped women and rapists being put in women's prisons was a greater priority. 19/10/23 fool you once, shame on the SNP. Keep on fooling you, shame on you.
DeleteIFS absolutely raging that the SNP are back in business.
DeleteIFS and Peter A.Bell are going to liberate Scotland!
DeleteAnon at 4.57pm - not raging at all. So anon - putting rapists in women prisons - ok with you - yes or no? Men in skirts counselling women who have been raped - ok with you - yes or no?
DeleteInstead of trolling it's about time YOU actually put your views on the table.
PS the result above showed the SNP losing to Labour.
Same to troll at 5.23pm who is probably the same troll.
DeletePS. I have never said I was going to liberate Scotland so once again you post lies.
Ifs pleased the tories won in the NE. I would agree though you will never liberate anything
DeleteAnother lie by anon troll at 5.36pm. Thats all you got troll. Lies. Too scared to post your views on rapists in women's prisons and men counselling women who have been raped. Pathetic troll.
DeleteReform will steal SNP voters. Especially in the North East and likely rural areas like Perthshire
ReplyDeleteReform will take votes from everyone but especially from the Tories.
DeleteThe votes for Reform in Scotland are a warning of the much bigger percentage vote increases that will occur in England. The Lib Dems have over 70 UK seats but note that you can get around 80 to 1 against them being the largest party after the next GE but only about 6 to 1 against Reform being the largest party. Scotland take a warning for once, that you are NOT the decision makers about who governs the UK so have the wit to protect yourselves by leaving it to the horrors that may well come!
Agree there is a pull towards a more nationalist vote up here among some. The civic nationalism seemed fine til you were hit with an electric biker drug dealing up union St. Folk won't like hearing that but I've heard more than once the city centre looks different from 10 years ago and not in a good way. We've largely thought of these issues as English but it's starting to become evident here.
DeleteAnon at 1:45 pm -- the centre of Glasgow has changed dramatically in less than a year. I in no way wish to come across as racist but I can't help noticing what I'm seeing and wondering what is happening. It could be that the UK government has suddenly housed hundreds of so-called "illegal immigrants" in empty offices or hotels in Glasgow, and that these poor folk have nothing else to do at the moment except wander about the streets, looking fairly miserable. Is that what's happening? How it's going to develop and how local folk's voting intentions might be affected is anyone's guess. I could never vote Reform, never mind Tory, and the very thought of Farage makes me want to boak.
DeleteAnon 328 : “ I in no way wish to come across as racist ” . You do.
DeleteNo he doesn't. Visit Glasgow City centre and you'll see he's right. Shouting racist doesn't at people doesn't address their concerns.
DeleteLarge student population. Large number of tourists. 🦆
DeleteUtter nonsense to suggest saying what you see with your own eyes is racist. That's what's pushing people away to vote for these parties which we dont wish them.to do. .name.calling.
DeletePatronising. Since brexit you can visibly see Glasgow changing and it's not the european students.
Whether it's good or bad is a different chapter (I happen to have a nuanced view) but it's happening and it will render results.
My own street had an Albanian gang growing marijuana in Falkirk, went to court this year. Drug gang if illegals based in England coming to Scottish towns. It's not all a bed of roses as people liked to think. Obviously it was easier to look at the English and say they're all racists when we had hardly any. Times are changing.
DeleteYou think if there aren't Albanians that no one's gonna grow marijuana and no one's gonna smoke marijuana?
DeleteIt's all to play for for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteI said after Yousaf rightly ditched the BHA, and Swinney became leader and FM, that the priority for Swinney wasn't Indy to start with, but trying to restore the competence of the ScotGov. Well, he's been unwinding bit by bit some of the more stupid policies, and here's another bit of stupidity reversed on the way. From the Herald (cannae be bothered being 4,776 in the queue for archive dot is):
"Wood burning stove ban lifted in major U-turn by SNP ministers"
Never mind the "past", what else is needed to be done - apart from the ferries? Before going flat out for Indy in time for 2026 HE!
So far he's doing what I would have been wanting.
Not seen you on WGD for a while. Have you been given the boot by Kavanagh?
DeleteI think my last comment there was "Wow." as he justified his use of the nonsensical "adjudicated rapist" in his article by quoting a judge called Kaplan - who "explained" why a jury found that "Trump was found not liable for raping E Jean Carroll in the dressing room of Bergdorf Goodman". And Carroll's lawyer coincidentally called Kaplan was delighted with the verdict against Trump.
DeleteI was told earlier: "What part of I have had enough of your contrarian pedantry don’t you understand?". But in the US same as in Scotland, rape is tried by a jury not a judge, so there is no such thing as an "adjudicated rapist" in Law.
That term seems to have originated in the Washington Post which has, according to Wiki:
"In the vast majority of U.S. elections, for federal, state, and local office, the Post editorial board has endorsed Democratic candidates."
I can't support such a comment which shows a complete ignorance of Law and the Rule of Law, accepts the use by a probable Democrat against a Republican - and a complete disinterest in being corrected. It's interesting to note that his new article in the National doesn't mention it for some odd reason.
I daresay an apology and a correction is on its way real soon now ......
In the USA they elect a sexual abuser like Trump to be President.
DeleteIn Scotland people wouldnae vote for Salmond a man cleared of sexual abuse in a court of criminal law. Not only that but a serving FM ( Sturgeon) states publicly on TV that the jury were wrong and the media and others continue to persecute and hound Salmond to his death and beyond.
Neither of the above are acceptable conduct to me.
Yes, but the markets liked the Trump win, GBP went down to 1.29 from 1.31 (i.e. the dollar went up). And "ideals" are all too often for those who are well off and can afford it, whereas those who are struggling and with a family to feed often don't give a damn - as long as they can put food on the table, clothes on the back, and a roof over the head.
DeleteThere's also people who think Trump is better for world peace. I wouldn't go that far, but on the other hand if people think he's totally unhinged, they might not like to risk his finger on the nuclear obliteration of the whole planet.
Salmond was guilty though, everybody knows that and there is even more to come
DeleteWas it you Dr Jim at 6.44pm that Carlos Alba was referring to in his article. You making up stories again Jimbo. See when you were relating your story about Salmond to the polis did you tell them you like to assault women?
DeleteIf indy isn't on the cards, I genuinely couldn't care less about the next election.
DeleteA dull choice between parties with a leaflet of difference between them.
I'll vote snp but no enthusiasm. They've turned into a new labour type party , power for powers sake and careers.
Here is another example of the lying SNP propagandist Scottish Skier lying. Skier says on WGD:-
ReplyDelete" the 6 month anniversary of Pete M being charged with unspecified crimes "
The police did specify what Murrell had been charged with - embezzlement. As if the polis would charge you with unspecified crimes. This poster, Scottish Skier, has previously stated that he is proud to lie to protect the SNP so it's not surprising he is blatantly lying again. It's now more than 6 months since Murrell was charged. Who is sitting on the these charges in the COPFS and why?
IFS at 2.37 .. You're infatuated with Scottish Skier.
DeleteTroll at 3.05pm. I thought you said it was Sturgeon. Make up your mind. As usual trolls have NOTHING to say about the contents of the post. So are you happy for Skier to post lies?
DeleteSkier actually makes some good posts - that wasn't one of them. For instance: "Police Scotland don’t know what else to do, so have asked UKCOPS – who are directing things – for the next steps, if any." is complete nonsense, and I can't be bothered even starting on why it's a load of old cobblers.
DeleteAs far as I'm concerned Sturgeon is an ex-FM, like Yousaf, McConnell and Henry McLeish. The first being Dewar, and Salmond the one who got us Indy Ref. I'm not remotely interested in Sturgeon's interest in books - good for her but it has nothing to do with getting us our Independence.
Swinney is the quiet man - maybe we'll see what he's made of.
Charged with "unspecified crimes" is a new level of stupidity even by Skier's lamentable standards - I'm surprised the Dughoose allowed that one to pass moderation.
DeleteHe's absolutely infatuated with Scottish skier. Almost at a stalker level.
DeleteDeclan you should be calling yourself Plonker. Try looking up the meaning of infatuated. What a plonker. He makes a fool of himself over his forecast for SNP MPs and now the plonker disnae even know the meaning of the words he uses. If he does know the meaning of infatuated then he is an even bigger plonker.
DeleteEmbezzlement of what and from whom? Since you know the precise charges. Looking forward to this one. It is self evident that the Crown are struggling to libel a charge sufficiently to allow a prosecution to proceed. The police have passed this one on and given the problem to the Crown. Your ignorance is palpable. Spend less time on here and educate yourself.
DeleteAnon at 8:09 AM
DeleteThe answers to your badly worded questions are all out there, why not spend some time on google?
https://www.google.co.uk/
My troll says " it is self evident " no it's not it's only in his troll mind.
DeleteAs yesindyref2 suggests try using google - start with the meaning of embezzlement. For someone who is always claiming others are ignorant you never actually provide any posts that demonstrate you are not the most ignorant on SGP.
Your go to approach is always to tell people to go away using a range of arrogant terms like jog off. You really are a pretty nasty character but then most trolls are.
Laughable that you think Google will supply an answer, but it certainly explains a lot. Your ignorance and stupidity are a toxic mix. A simple question has been asked. What specific charges have been levelled? Your inability to answer speaks volumes. Go away and spend three to four years getting an education. Then come back.
Delete1.25pm - who are you to tell anyone to go away. It’s not your blog. If anyone should go away it’s you. You pollute SGP with your continual trolling.
DeleteNo answer? As I said, laughable that you rely on Google for an explanation of embezzlement under Scot’s Criminal law. Educate yourself. You’ve been found out. And your pal. Pair of ignorant loudmouths.
DeleteMy troll at 1.25pm demonstrates all the hallmarks of Scottish Skier the WGD numpty who is too cowardly to post under his WGD moniker. I say my troll because he disnae troll others who say the same as me. Skier - I have been pointing out the lies and downright nonsense you have been posting for years.
DeleteFrom google. "Embezzlement - theft or misappropriation of funds placed in one's trust or belonging to one's employer. "
Or especially for you Skier from google. " What is embezzlement in SIMPLE words? Embezzlement is a type of financial fraud where someone takes money or assets that were entrusted to them and uses them for a different purpose than for what they were intended. "
Where is the ring fenced £600k Skier?
Why park a brand new luxury motor home on Murrell's mother's driveway for years that nobody knew about? Beattie the SNP Treasurer at the time said he didn't know anything about the motor home and then later on said he did. Just how do you forget an approx £100k spend when you are the Treasurer?
Dictionary /Wikipedia copy and paste. As I said, laughable. The question being asked is simple. What specific charge(s) have been levelled against Murrell. You do not know, despite what you say. Found out. Education, education, education.
DeleteWhere is the ring fenced fund of £600k Skier?
DeleteJust how do you forget an approx £100k spend when you are Treasurer?
If a burglar has been charged with burglary that is a specified crime. The same with embezzlement. If that is too difficult for you to understand Skier best stick to posting on WGD where the numpties let you post any old crap and lies.
The only person found out is you Skier. You and Dr Jim - both cowards posting on SGP with your trolling crap.
And it is obvious Declan at 12.04am above is also Scottish Skier. Skier your ludicrous forecasts as Declan gave you away. I'm guessing you ain't contributing to the SGP fundraiser these days but are you still touring the public toilets?
DeleteR u one and the same. Yi2 has had battles in the past. Hint of a right wing military theme runs through you.
ReplyDeleteDon't talk shite, cowardly Anonymous, though I know who you are.
DeleteJust to add to that, this isn't the blog where ad hominems are allowed to stand AGAINST me, whereas my replies are deleted.
DeleteWho?
Delete“ I smell 💩”
DeleteDon't be silly, you're not going to crash. Take your head out from between your knees.
DeleteWho is he? Oh you don’t know. You are lying again to look important and knowledgeable. Sad wee man.
DeleteThe reform candidate is a rather eccentric well known local character for what it’s worth
ReplyDeleteHe has a pencil moustache?
DeleteIs he a brigand?
Delete