Saturday, October 26, 2024

Find Out Now! Find Out How? Find Out HOLY COW!!! A majority of the Scottish public want independence in bombshell new poll

It's actually only four months since the last time an opinion poll showed a clear pro-independence majority - that was a telephone poll conducted by the UK's gold standard firm Ipsos, no less, but a lot of water has passed under the bridge since June, particularly the SNP's setback in the general election.  So it's incredibly heartening to discover that Find Out Now still have Yes in the lead.  I say "still" because for years Find Out Now polls have tended to show Yes majorities, as indeed have Ipsos polls - if those two companies are right, we've been in 'settled will' territory for quite some time.

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Find Out Now)
 
Yes 52% (-)
No 48% (-)

So far I haven't found the fieldwork dates, but they must be fairly recent because the poll is billed as being "the first since Alex Salmond's death".

As far as I can see this is the ninth poll Find Out Now have conducted on independence, and of those no fewer than eight have shown a pro-independence majority.  The sole exception was the poll commissioned by Independent Voices in September 2023, although oddly some sources list even that one as showing a Yes majority.  That'll be because of the way the data was presented by the client at the point of initial publication, which must be an almost unique example of a pro-independence client, as opposed to a unionist client, pulling a fast one and getting away with it.

Essentially the message of this poll is that the general election has had no effect - pollsters that have previously shown a small Yes lead can be expected to continue to show a small Yes lead, while the bulk of online pollsters that have tended to put Yes in the high 40s can be expected to continue doing that too.  So for all of KC's endless propaganda about "Statista polls" ("Statista" is not a BPC-affiliated polling firm, you won't be surprised to hear), it looks like the popularity of independence is untouched.

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SCOT GOES POP FUNDRAISER 2024: I took a prolonged break from promoting the fundraiser during the general election period, but I'll have to make some serious progress over the coming days and weeks if the blog is to remain viable.  Many thanks to everyone who has donated so far.  Card donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE, or direct donations can be made via Paypal.  My Paypal email address is:  jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk

62 comments:

  1. Ipsos will be please you call them gold.

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    1. Maybe not when Israel start claiming they're hidden under a hospital.

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  2. Who the heck is KC?

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  3. just sayin even 100 to 0 for YES means feckall if the referendum is never happening

    so how will you make it happen?

    "win another mandate"

    (stop it, I will piss myself)

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  4. So what is your plan?

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  5. Do you happen to know who this poll was conducted for James?
    If it was for a neutral organisation, then this is tremendous news.

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    1. Afternoon, KC! I know you're just joking there, because if you were being serious you'd be giving yourself away as utterly clueless about how the polling industry works. As you're well aware, the identity of the client does not affect how voting intention questions are conducted. The question wording and other methodology remains exactly the same.

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  6. It's almost certainly an outlier. I wouldn't get too excited.

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    1. LOL. How can a poll be an "outlier" when it shows exactly the same thing as seven of the previous eight polls in the series? Nice try, KC, but it would have needed to show a No lead to be an outlier.

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    2. Compared to polls from other countries he probably means, James.

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  7. I see John REDACTOR MAN Swinney has been hard at work at his day job and it ain't getting rid of the GERS report or anything to take advantage of a majority for independence. The FM for cover ups has been wielding his black pen again.

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    1. What a corrupt shower in the Scotgov. Their own lawyers telling them that the staff appointed ( supposed to be neutral/independent) to assist James Hamilton were reporting back to Ministers on what Hamilton was doing and how to counteract it isnae going to go down well if exposed. Sturgeon put her own spies in his supposedly neutral civil servant support team.

      Surprise surprise Swinney has redacted the name of the person who was the head of the (so called independent ) civil service team ( secretariat ) that was helping Hamilton. The James Hamilton that was investigating Sturgeon. You couldnae make this stuff up. Comes from too long in power and thinking you can get away with anything, particularly if Westminster has your back.

      Perhaps this blacked out name was " Beyonce "

      This is not the sort of governance I ever imagined would happen under an SNP government years ago. It is a Westminster Britnat style of governance - do bad things and end up spending public funds and years attempting to cover it up. Sturgeon and Swinney's Scotland.

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    2. You are making it up and then embellishing it even more

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    3. Unsurprisingly there are calls for Sturgeon to face a new Inquiry in to whether she broke the Ministerial code. Hamilton's report was compromised as was the Fabiani farce. Personally if this means listening to Sturgeon lying her face off again for eight hours I will happily give it a miss.

      The FOI pages, all 101, are more evidence against Sturgeon's gang to be used in the outstanding civil court case. No doubt Westminster will pay out any monetary award given against them.

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    4. Anon at 8.01pm - too many SNP carrots eaten. Your brain is mush if you cannae even see how stupid that statement is.

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    5. You can’t make this stuff up says IFS. But of course he just has.

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    6. What has he made up about it. Nothing that I can see. Look for the information elsewhere and it’s the truth. A truth that obviously you don’t want to know

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    7. Anon troll at 11.48am - here is another truth that you'll want to stick you head in the sand about. Only coming up for air to munch some SNP carrots then back in to the sand goes your head.

      James Hamilton in his very redacted report actually said Sturgeon broke the Ministerial code but he then said in the same report that she didn't because she didn't mean to break it. It's like an embezzeler getting caught and saying to the polis but I didn't mean to embezzle the money and polis saying well that's ok then. A pathetic fudge by Hamilton who was, as we now know, being monitored by Sturgeon's spy in his camp.

      Corrupt corrupt government.

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    8. These SNP trolls are really pathetic human beings. If they don't look at papers/reports/evidence/facts then in their minds it isnae there so people are just making it up. Reminds you of 3 year old infants.

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    9. Anon at 12.54. Feel free to provide credible evidence. Not personal opinion and speculation. In your own time.

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    10. It's my personal troll again at 4.59am - he eats way too many SNP carrots. This is the diddy who said I was Campbell, then he said I lived in Bath but was a friend of Campbell, then he said I was Alba's McEleny, oh and he also said I was our host James Kelly. He probably said I was many other people as well. No wonder he hides as an anon. He posts nothing but trolling nonsense. He just loves telling other posters to jog off etc etc. This latest post in the middle of the morning is a cracker - the troll who posts nothing but trolling is telling another poster to provide evidence. The troll who has never provided any evidence for anything he posts.

      All the evidence is in the 101 pages that the Scottish government were forced to issue after wasting public funds over a 3 year period to try and refuse a FOI.

      My post above at 1.23pm sums up this troll.

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  8. Give it a break - your are boring.

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    1. Not as boring as you.

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    2. Anon at 4.47pm - keep eating your SNP carrots I've heard they are delicious with the side effect of turning your brain to mush.

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    3. The redacted name is woman A from the trial, you can tell from the size of the blacked out areas.

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    4. IFS is absolutely raging that the SNP have pushed Scotland closer to independence. He might just choke on some nuts.

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    5. Anon at 7.07pm - keep eating your SNP carrots I've heard they are delicious with side effects of turning your brain to mush and removing your ability to detect any wrongdoing.

      The SNP are preventing independence.

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    6. IFS, absolute bull, and fine you know it.
      Only the SNP can lead us to independence. Clearly there is no viable alternative.

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    7. Ifs thinks we will all vote for his 1 person party

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    8. Anon troll at 7.59pm - there is no party and if there was I wouldnae want people like you voting for it never mind be a member. You are a lowlife troll.

      Anon troll at 7.57pm says the SNP will lead Scotland to independence - is that before the sun expands and eats the earth - just checking for my diary.

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    9. These SNP trolls show a remarkable similarity to Trump supporters. They will accept any wrongdoing by Sturgeon's gang and that makes them contemptible.

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    10. Ifs- actually you are doing what the right wing always tries to do and twist the narrative. I think ,odt folk on here have seen enough of your boring repetitive posts to make up their mind if you would ever deliver anything of value.

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    11. Anon troll at 8.57pm - gibberish - too many SNP carrots - mush brain. Try dealing in facts.

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    12. Anon8:57 I've seen enough of your boring moaning posts to last a lifetime. If you haven't anything more to say, say nothing.

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    13. Carrots? Time to go vack on the meds, I think.

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  9. Like the headline :-)

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  10. SNP on a downer and indy support a majority and certainly among the young.

    Union in 15 years?

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  11. Interesting poll. activists split into those who believe in the SNP and those who think the SNP are toxic. But both groups are committed to independence. This poll suggests (in line with many previous polls) the possibility that the wider public are also split into these two groups. I.e. The behaviour of the SNP government isn't often seen as a reason to abandon independence. The decoupling of the popularities of the SNP & independence is perhaps an indication that the Scottish voting public has a higher level of sophistication, which is in itself reassuring.

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  12. There does seem to be a path via the young to independence in the next 10 years or so. How it's galvanised is another thing.

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    1. The problem is the young grow older and tend to be less inclined to favour independence as they age.

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    2. Sure, but the 65 year olds of today were never a pro independence cohort. I.e their peers were unionist through life. Not so for the younger generations. So the situation is different from before.

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    3. I don't think that's the case. I accept that what you say is thexway things are normally explained, but there hasn't really been any investigation into why a majority of over 65s favour the union and remember it is not all of them. I would guess that you are partially correct but I think they also need guarantees over their pensions. Working with the elderly this is something that quite often comes up. It's a genuine worry for them and I'm afraid to say no one ever seems ready to always those fears. Perhaps if an independence party would assure them that pensions would be guaranteed after independence there might be some movement. The elderly need reassurance on the present as much as the young needs a vision of the future.

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    4. Should read: no one seems ready to allay those fears

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    5. Oh i absolutely agree older people is where the conversations need to be had.

      What I mean is younger people who were already pro independence are more likely to be pro independence in older age than elderly who never were.

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  13. As if Starmer who is happy for pensioners to freeze this winter, so he can save a few bob, is going to payout slavery reparations to foreigners.
    It's the same as when the Tories were happy for England's school kids to go hungry ( until Rashford intervened ) and at the same time claim that Scots were given loads of extra money by Westminster compared to England.

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    1. Seen a growing number of economists in recent years saying Scotland would be better off independent.

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    2. Not surprised. Liz Truss demonstrated that "the Union" is the economics of the madhouse.

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    3. "Seen a growing number of economists in recent years saying Scotland would be better off independent."

      Those economists are smart cookies. Good on them for speaking out.

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  14. Well was it or not.? You don’t know so make it up

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    1. An example of a numpty troll talking to himself🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡What a clown.

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  15. This poll is a welcome boost.
    Only last month we had a Survation poll which put the Yes/No split at 41%/59%.
    Here’s hoping the Find Out Now poll is the more accurate.

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  16. DF David Fraser pops up on SGP claims he has been a supporter of independence for decades and despite him seeing all these failings in Salmond's character claims he was in the motor cavalcade behind Salmond's hearst. DF like Declan disappears again. Does DF really stand for Declan Forecasts and as Declan has demonstrated all to well Declan disnae forecast very well.

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  17. Pretty sure the moronic trolls on SGP who troll me are the same people who used to claim year after year that:

    ' Sturgeon has a secret master plan to deliver independence.'

    To be fair to them they were nearly right. They just missed out one word.

    ' Sturgeon has a secret master plan NOT to deliver independence.

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    1. Thing is IFS, nobody can deliver independence!
      It’s well and truly a busted flush. In the words of the late great Roy Orbison, “IT’S OVER”.

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    2. Anon@5:54pm, your sneering comment is uncalled for, however I sadly have to agree with you re independence.

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    3. KC - you are severely lacking in imagination.

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  18. It pains me to say this, but I find it very hard to get excited about a poll on independence by Find Out Now, conducted for the Alba party.

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    1. Aye, it was hardly going to show a No majority was it.

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