It was a "festival of democracy", not a trauma: ten years on, YouGov poll shows the Scottish public resoundingly believe holding the independence referendum was the right thing to do, and that they want another referendum to be held within the next ten years

Unsurprisingly, this week's tenth anniversary of the indyref has brought about a flurry of polls on independence, which is quite helpful because for the last two months we've had relatively limited information on the impact of the general election on Yes support.  Of the three new polls I'm aware of, two are positive for Yes and suggest that there is a higher level of support for independence now than there was on referendum day a generation ago.  The exception is YouGov, which is quite like old times, really, because during the long indyref campaign YouGov were consistently the least favourable online polling firm for Yes due to the notorious 'Kellner Correction' that was artificially imposed on the headline numbers because Peter Kellner refused to believe the evidence of his own eyes and insisted there had to be some sort of bug that meant No was further ahead than the raw results suggested.

I'm not aware of any similar 'correction' that YouGov are making now that would suppress the Yes vote in their polls, although it can't be completely ruled out that something is going on that we don't know about.  Their new poll has No ahead by 56% to 44%, which would be the first sign of what I feared at the time of the general election, ie. that there would be a temporary drop in Yes support due to a Labour honeymoon effect.  Frankly, though, I don't take that notion too seriously anymore, because the other two polls suggest that Yes support has held up admirably.  More in Common appear to have No ahead by around 52% to 48%, although that's my own rough recalculation from the figures with Don't Knows left in - I can't find the definitive numbers in the data tables.  With Opinium the No lead appears to be a wafer-thin 51% to 49%.

Although the YouGov poll is on the whole disappointing, there are a couple of really encouraging results within it.  You might remember that during the indyref campaign, most people were finding it such an exhilarating experience (it led, after all, to the highest voter turnout since the introduction of universal suffrage!) that unionist politicians and commentators felt compelled to embrace the holding of a referendum as an overwhelmingly positive thing, and the campaign itself as a "festival of democracy" (Tom Holland's words on the eve of polling day) that the rest of the UK needed to learn from.  But within a year or two, the exact same people were shamelessly gaslighting us by trying to implant false memories that the campaign had instead been a national trauma on the scale of a small war and that families and friendships had been torn apart by it.  The YouGov poll suggests the gaslighting has deservedly failed, and that by a resounding margin of 52% to 33%, respondents feel that holding the referendum was the right thing to do.  They also, by a narrower margin of 43% to 40%, want a second referendum to be held within the next ten years, although there's more hostility than in some previous polls to the idea of holding it within the next year or the next five years.

The poll also shows that voters would overwhelmingly back independence (the Yes advantage would be 56% to 32%, or roughly 64% to 36% without Don't Knows) if it meant Scotland would rejoin the EU - which, let's be honest, it probably would.  This suggests that, contrary to John Swinney's dismal claims in the Salmond/Sturgeon documentary, the SNP missed a trick by not bringing the independence question to a head after the EU referendum.  The mistake was not, as Swinney believes, to push too hard but to not push anything like hard enough, and to back off at the first sign of any resistance from 'Tyrannical Theresa'.  Even now, it appears the window of opportunity to use voters' horror at Brexit to win independence has not yet closed, but clearly there is no prospect whatever of taking advantage of that opportunity for as long as Swinney remains SNP leader.

Also of interest is that a greater proportion of people who support independence say they feel strongly about their views (90%) than those who oppose independence (78%).  That leaves open the possibility of a significant future net swing to Yes.

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