Well, this is a turn up for the books. There's been no particular evidence in recent times that Savanta are an unusually SNP-friendly pollster, so these numbers have to be taken seriously - although bear in mind that one swallow does not make a summer, and in any individual poll there's always a chance of an illusory trend caused by margin of error noise.
Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Savanta, 21st-26th June 2024)
SNP 34% (+1)
Labour 34% (-4)
Conservatives 14% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (-)
There is a perfectly reasonable argument to be made that if you have two polls within 24 hours of each other showing movement in opposite directions, the most logical thing to do is split the difference and assume nothing has changed. Yesterday's Survation poll showed the Labour lead increasing from four to six points. However, even if you average out the changes in the Survation and Savanta polls, you'd arrive at a small swing back to the SNP. And you can't completely exclude from the mix yesterday's two MRP projections, which were also very favourable for the SNP.
Meanwhile, the run of polls showing the Tories on 14% continues, suggesting they could be on course for their worst general election result in Scotland in the democratic era.
* * *
I've previewed the constituency race in Lothian East for The National - you can read the article HERE.
It still amazes me that there are still people - 1 in 7 - who support the Tories in Scotland. Given the phenomenon of 'shy Tories', known to pollsters, this percentage is probably higher. Given that there is a fair chunk of the population that has done very well under austerity - i.e. the tansfer of wealth from the most of us to a small clique, it is not surprising. Sadly, the bigger chunk that is expressing support for Labour would substantially vote Tory 'to keep out the Nats'.
ReplyDeletePS Does anyone else find Starmer's oft-repeated pledge to 'SECURE Scotlannd's place in the Union' somewhat threatening and Orwellianly colonialist?
Prolly all that talk of a defacto ref and Douglas Ross being only one to step up ; )
DeleteWhat they all agree on is that the SNP is polling substantially lower than YES. Approximately a third of the pro indy vote is too scunnered with them to think they are worth voting for. Are they going to learn their lesson in time for 2026? Are they even interested in trying to win these votes back or will they be too complacent to think it is even worth bothering?
ReplyDeleteNice attempt at trying to keep SNP votes down. So all those independence supporters out there will you support the main party in the General Election who can win seats? If no, you benefit the unionists who detest Scotland
DeleteGies action on Indy and you’ll get our vote. 😉
Delete“Our vote” . How come you have more votes. Are you a collective?
DeleteAt 2:02pm, it's the foremost policy on the SNP's manifesto this year. This is the first time it's actually been on the manifesto, for an active election, in the form of "if we win we will open independence talks."
DeleteAnon @ 4:33PM
DeleteHow's it different from their 2017 election plan?
Back then it was: Winning a majority of seats would give the party a "triple lock" of mandates to call a second referendum on independence and that the UK Government would find it "democratically unsustainable" to continue to oppose another referendum.
The UK in the form of 4 PMs have found it very easy to sustain their undemocratic position because Scotland is England's colony and being a colony Scotland only gets the democracy England allows it. The SNP stance is a fake independence policy. They know the sec 30 will be rejected by Starmer and they know it will be rejected by whoever replaces Starmer. If you think this is an independence policy I have a chocolate teapot to sell you.
DeleteTwo potential numpty replies - the get aff your arse character and the what's YOUR plan then. To the first ignoramous - don't even bother replying. To the second likely reply I have been posting my suggestion on SGP since 2020.
In any other European country under PR they'd be saying SNP doing quite well across the country.
ReplyDeleteIt would allow people to vote Alba as well.
FPTP is there to keep the status quo
I think we need to recognise that the vagaries of FPTP can create the large swings in seats between parties. It system is designed for a 2 party state. Insert a 3rd party and the results can swing. More confident now that the SNP can win a majority of seats in Scotland if the ( I cannie be bothered brigade) turn up. If labour come 2nd that will declare a success. Months ago they would see it as another defeat. I wonder if the 30% independence supporters in that party now feel they can move to SNP with the assurance that England will toss out the tories for the other brand of red tories?
ReplyDeleteSpeaking as one of the scunnered: I’m withholding my until now solidly SNP vote to startle Swinney and his party. I don’t care about labour or any other shade of Tory. England picks them for us anyway, as that’s the nature of this unfair union.
DeletePersonally he won’t be startled, he will just ignore the stupidity.
DeleteI'm curious why was my post that pointed out what this poll projects in terms of seats was deleted?
ReplyDeleteBecause a) your post was a flat-out lie, and b) you are KC. Hope this helps.
DeleteElectoral Calculus has the SNP on 23 seats on their latest update. It has the Tories on 60 UK wide which is incredible.
DeleteI don't object to people using the tool on Electoral Calculus to convert poll results into seats, because although it's flawed it's a useful rough guide. But the individual seat predictions on the site are pretty meaningless as far as I can see. Some people treat them as if they're some sort of MRP projection but to the best of my knowledge they're not.
DeleteActually punched the air when I read about this vote. All along I have told the doubters the SNP will come good. Time for the final push and extend that lead up to 2019 numbers now.
ReplyDeleteI'd settle for 2017 numbers at this stage. Given all the crap thrown at the party over the last two years that would be a major achievement and see some torn faces amongst the Unionists.
DeleteRemember Declan you said the SNP would actually GAIN seats so they'll have to surpass 2019 levels. You seem to have gone quiet on that front.
DeletePlease note HandandShrimp that the crap has not been thrown at the SNP they have dumped it on themselves.
DeleteTo be fair to Scottish Skier ( Declan ) he has been saying this for a while now.
@ 1.22 pm
DeleteI would disagree with that. While every political party comprises of human brings and human beings make mistakes and error of judgements, for example Ferrier, the weight of media pressure applied to the SNP is disproportionate compared to the treatment of other parties. That will likely change somewhat once Starmer is in office and the guns of the overwhelmingly right wing media are trained on Labour. However, the SNP have sustained almost nonstop negativity in the media. How often have you seen a positive news story? It is remarkable that despite all this they are still in this election battle with a chance.
Problem is loads of the labour vote is in the swing seats while SNP is more national.
ReplyDeleteYou prob need to be ahead to win the majority but a good 5 or 6 points.
Smarmer is smarting that's good news at least.
DeleteThe MRP stuff seems incredible. Tories on 60 seats. To be honest I'm ignoring them, too daft.
ReplyDeleteWhy would any sane Scottish person vote for Geoffrey Stammer. See what I did there. But seriously he is an English nationalist like Farage. He is just another enemy of Scotland who refuses to accept democracy.
ReplyDeleteRefusing Scotland's right to self determination may well be the last refuge of unionism. They want what they want, and they'll do what they need to secure it.
DeleteBrit nats think they are superior. Get over it. Your not.
DeleteAll very encouraging for the SNP.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the support you have given our party. It is very fair-minded of you to put aside partisan interests and speak objectively.
As an SNP member , I second that . Next 22 months will have me considering whether to vote Alba on the list.
DeleteAlba gu brath
I'm sure you mean well but the fact that you'll 'consider' a list vote for Alba over the next two years doesn't fill me with confidence that you will ever vote for them.
DeleteAll depends on how the SNP do.
DeleteI mean , that is , it depends what the SNP has done to forward the cause.and what is in their manifesto. Is that not what we should all be looking at? By the cause I mean independence , of course.
DeleteWe should back the SNP's manifesto!: Winning a majority of seats would give the party a "triple lock" of mandates to call a second referendum on independence and that the UK Government would find it "democratically unsustainable" to continue to oppose another referendum.
DeleteNo wait... that was their 2017 Manifesto.
So easy to confuse them.
Aye , I'm saying it depends on what action the SNP are actually going to take to enforce the mandate . Probably Swinney needs to go first.
DeleteIt was probably fortunate for Swinney that Sunak called an early General Election rather than having it in October as expected.
DeleteIt can now be argued that any losses the SNP suffers will be Humza Yousaf's fault and that Swinney wasn't given enough time to turn things around.
Anon at 3.38. You do not fill me with confidence that Alba will make the changes needed to become a viable list only party come 2016.
DeleteUntil recently I wasn’t convinced about Alba. However listening to Alex Salmond launching the party’s election manifesto has convinced me. The real focus on independence stands out for me, and all serious independence supporters in the 19 constituencies where Alba are standing should, without question, vote for them.
ReplyDeleteThe problem of course, is what indy supporters do in other constituencies where there is no Alba candidate. I’m sure some will vote SNP, despite the party’s total lack of progress on Indy in recent years, however I wouldn’t blame anybody if they decide to abstain.
Nae Alba here in Moray West.. . Do I want to help the Tories by abstaining : NO. I will consider Alba 2nd vote 2026 depending on the progress or lack of it by the SNP.
DeleteAnon at 425. Does Salmond. Accept ALBA will not win 1 seat in the whole of Scotland? Does he accept the ex SNP MP’s who jumped ship will not be re-elected? Does he accept ALBA if lucky will poll 2% of votes. Less than the tories, less than Lind dems and Greens.
DeleteSorry but an ALBA vote is a wasted vote.
@5:17,
DeleteSo you’re just going to vote SNP, for more of the same!
Don’t you want independence?
Anon 5:24,I am voting SNP and I do want independence.As a 78 year old,I am sure that I have wanted it far longer than you,so I can appreciate the struggle and contribution of the SNP to get us into a position where independence is possible.That will; depend on the independence movement standing together.I find some of the assumptions on this site that contain logical flaws to be very sad,The misleading assumptions that the SNP do not want independence are factually incorrect,and probably come from frustration about the delay in achieving it.I get that.While it is critical that the SNP holds many of their seats in the general election,I will not join in the attacks on other parts of the independence movement.I have great respect for Alex Salmond,and in a recent council election,I gave Alba my second vote.I just wish that everyone would take a more relaxed of the diversity within the independence movement.
DeleteAlba should be standing in all Scottish constituencies FFS if they want to be taken seriously. They’re going to fizzle out to nothing in the next few years. Even Reform are putting up a candidate in every seat without a snowball’s chance of any of them getting elected as an MP.
DeleteI think some original ALBA believers are beginning to recognise this hence their desperation. The election will tell the real story I suppose for all parties. No more hiding behind polls.
DeleteA reminder that posters on SGP and other blogs said in 2021 Alba would be finished in 2 years (that would be 2023 for the numpties that cannae count). Most of them were the same numpties that said Sturgeon would deliver independence in 2021 then 2022 and then 19/10/ 23. Their forecasts based on previous history isnae worth a bean.
Deleteiis - nice to see you back. I remember ALBANISTs thought they were on a roll and would increase their share. Believed their own hype encouraged by the britnat papers and media. Still a week to go and the public will decide.
DeleteAnon at 9.29pm if it is nice to see me back try using my correct moniker then or is saying Independence For Scotland something the SNP has forgotten to say. What hype by Britnat papers? The Britnat media ignore Alba and Sturgeon and her gang carried out a criminal plot against Salmond.
DeleteIndependence is on the first page of their manifesto. But it’s not on your list of priorities. Will WOS not take you back?
DeleteYougov poll has Labour only 36% UK wide!
ReplyDeleteThe 49% of people who support Independence should have realized what a britnat Starmer is, he hasn't proposed anything for Scotland during this election
ReplyDeleteI've noticed a couple of sub/samples have the SNP on 4%. Maybe there is a late swing towards the SNP and in the coming days the polls may pick up on it.
ReplyDeleteWhose he?
ReplyDeleteI assume they mean James.
DeleteJames , I understand is ( and I'm sure he will put me right if I'm wrong) takes the nuanced position that it's best to vote SNP at this FPTP election and wait to vote Alba in 2026. Except , I presume, in the seats where Alba is standing.
DeleteSaor Alba
I see the original posts have gone anyway but I'm pretty sure that was who they meant
Delete