In spite of the Ipsos poll showing the SNP level, I was becoming a tad despondent about the general election this morning. I'd had a look at YouGov's latest Scottish subsample which showed a really big Labour lead, and although the margin of error on that was enormous, it did appear to make it less likely that the SNP had made any progress during the campaign so far. The Ipsos poll didn't change that equation, because as I pointed out a few days ago, Ipsos telephone polls have consistently been more favourable for the SNP than online polls from other firms, so level-pegging in an Ipsos poll would tend to correlate with a Labour lead in other polls.
For that reason, today's new poll from Opinium is the more significant of the two, because it's the best result for the SNP in an online poll since the election was called, and offers some hope that they may actually be getting somewhere in this campaign.
Independence is running at around 50% so there has to be a lot of independence supporters backing Labour. It's up to the SNP to appeal to these voters and tell them Labour will get in even without Scotland such is there large lead in England over the Tories.
ReplyDeleteAs a unionist, what disillusions me is that the gold standard polls from Ipsos always seem to show a majority for independence.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I'm a lifelong unionist too, and the Ipsos polls depress the hell out of me. Game over, it seems.
DeleteI agree, although I'm HEARTENED by the Ipsos polls because I'm NOT a unionist.
DeleteI’m with you on that, and I’m even more heartened because other polling companies have also recently showed support for independence above 50%. Not just depth - but breadth too.
DeleteThe numbers for all the parties in both polls are very similar which would suggest that they are detecting something tangible out there.
ReplyDeleteThe actual SNP vote on Election Day is ALWAYS lower than the percentages they get from polling companies in the run up to the election - James this can easily be confirmed by looking at the relevant data from the last few elections.
ReplyDeleteThe last 6 Scotland only polls before the 2019 UK general election. SNP 40, 44,44,39,41,43.
DeleteActual election 45%.
I think the curb your enthusiasm music would be appropriate.....
Does anyone know why Redfield & Wilton polls seem to have dried up?
ReplyDeleteNot sure they have dried up, Anon at 10.55, but I gather they appear as often as Tory donors can afford them.
DeleteAh OK, that makes sense. Thanks for that info, Anon.
DeleteI am not sure why unionists are depressed by the positive Yes polling. Surely it shows the majority of Scots don't value the Union. Given the shit show over the last 10 years. It baffles me why any Scot would think the Union was serving them.
ReplyDeleteMy message to unionists is. Why persist in backing a failed system. Why not drop your fundamentalism , and instead use some logical thinking. Or does your British ness cloud your judgement?
It baffles me why any Scot would think of voting SNP after the shambles of the last few years.
DeleteSNP are far from perfect , however , shambles is hardly fair. The truth is that the Britnat establishment and media has been painting an exaggerated picture of any problems . Many of the perceived failures actually stem from Tory/ Labour austerity. I mention Labour because it was Gordy Broon that let the guilty bankers aff when he saved the world , sorry the economy. He set up it up and enabled the Tories to squeeze public services to impoverish us all.
DeleteSoar Alba
Having a First Minister resign and then having the next First Minister resign just over a year later over the same issue is hardly a sign of a stable Government.
DeleteI wasn't talking about the SNP. Scotland's independence has nothing to do with one political party. They come and go.
ReplyDelete