Ironically I'm currently sitting in an Alba candidate adoption meeting in Airdrie (where Alex Salmond has just predicted the SNP face doom beyond what opinion polls are suggesting), so I'll have to finish this post later, but here are the More in Common MRP numbers. Remember 29 seats is the target number for the SNP to retain a majority.
Labour 382 (+180)
Conservatives 180 (-185)
SNP 35 (-13)
Liberal Democrats 30 (+19)
Plaid Cymru 3 (-1)
Greens 1 (-)
Conservatives 180 (-185)
SNP 35 (-13)
Liberal Democrats 30 (+19)
Plaid Cymru 3 (-1)
Greens 1 (-)
* * *
"Dave Doo-gan, Dave Doo-gan, riding through the Glens..." I've previewed the race in the evocatively-named new constituency of Angus and Perthshire Glens for The National - you can read it HERE.
I've also previewed the race in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. I can't find it on the website (maybe I'm looking in the wrong place), but it was in today's print edition, so if you're a subscriber you can find it in the digital edition. Obviously for that one I was always going to mention either Bob Servant or Arbroath smokies. Bob Servant got the nod on this occasion, but I can report that I went to Arbroath a couple of years ago and had a smokie, and it was delicious.
Very encouraging poll.
ReplyDeleteAgree!
DeleteWho *really* thinks they’ll hold onto largest Scottish party?
ReplyDeleteAnd even then, what does it do when the Lib Dem beat them for 3rd place “nationally“ and take away all their prominence? (Prominence the party mostly squandered through all these years anyway.)
It doesn’t feel like I am Getting a chance to vote for independence in this election.
DeleteIt feels like I am being asked to contribute to another Scout badge for a crooked party that has played me and half of all of Scotland for fools.
Grow up and control your petted lip.
DeleteJeepers! The 1st Battalion of Moaning Minnies have jumped into the breach with alacrity
DeleteAnd what will you do when free prescriptions free eye tests, no tuition fees, no 2 child limit go and the bedroom tax is back?
DeleteIts not all about your selfish ways me me me.
Lots of people will be affected if snp seats collapse ahd direct ruke is reintroduced.
Just continue being Selfish selfish!
And even then, what does it do when the Lib Dem beat them for 3rd place “nationally“ and take away all their prominence? (Prominence the party mostly squandered through all these years anyway.)
DeleteWhit? The poll has the SNP in third place
Agree -- great poll for SNP in light of recent polls. Encouraging!
ReplyDeleteThe 3 MRPs in as many days from YouGov, the joint Electoral Calculus/People polling and this from Find Out Now all show markedly different results.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the YouGov one, it has the SNP down on 17 seats but gaining Mid Dumbartonshire and Orkney/Shetland from the LibDems. Retaining Dundee Central but loosing Falkirk, their safest seat in 2015 and top 5 safest in 2019 and a larger majority than the Dundee seat, hence my suspicion of that one in particular.
This Find out Now one and the one Electoral Calculus published a couple of days ago do appear a bit more plausible than the YouGov one in terms of expected LibDem gains and Labour gains..
Will be very interested in your analysis here James.
Regards,
Michael.
Brace yourself Christine....the Lib Dums are projected to sec
Deleteure one (1) seat in Scotland......probably the liar in Orkney.
So this latest YOU GOV poll reckons lib dums will only retain one seat in Scotland.....it has to be the liar Carmichael.
DeleteLooks like my predication the whole time is slowly but surely coming true. Who would have thought that?
ReplyDeleteNobody except you.
DeleteSpot on
DeleteHang on, you're original 'prediction' was that the SNP would actually GAIN seats. Are you sticking to that or have you sobered up since?
DeleteI'll stick by my prediction, 35 seats today could possibly be 49 seats in just over a month's time.
DeleteOnly a fool
Deleteboasts about winning a race miles out from the finish line.
I don't understand this projection. Where's the DUP, Sinn Fein, Reform?
ReplyDeleteEspecially first two.
It's a GB projection so excludes NI parties. Reform are missing because they're not projected to win any seats.
DeleteThe NI seats not included in this projection.
DeleteI hope for the best but labour being ahead nationally in Scotland suggests they are pulling away in the battleground seats.
ReplyDeleteI feel SNP need to he ahead to really be in contention in central belt. Am I wrong?
You're wrong to some extent. The SNP wouldn't be wiped out in the central belt if they were just slightly behind Labour in the national popular vote. The losses would be severe but they would still have central belt seats.
DeleteOh I'm sure they would but being the largest party? I don't see it unless they're ahead of Labour nationally. Labour get like 7% in some places in Scotland while SNPs votes are more spread.
DeleteDon't think it would be a wipe out, of course, but I don't see a path to keeping many central belt seats.
Well, that's a bit of a circular point, because presumably on the More in Common numbers the SNP would have the lead in the popular vote anyway.
DeleteWill Labour get found out? When people realise they're so little different from the Tories and much of their pitch is of things they'll change in England?
ReplyDeleteWill they get the vote out? When people realise England will vote the Tories out anyway?
The thing is, while Labour have circled back to Blairite territory, the Tories are no longer what they were in 2010 to 2015 and have lost the sort of voter who would never back a left-leaning Labour... but would back a Blair or Starmer over Truss in a heartbeat.
DeleteOnce they get into power, they'll be there until the Tories have circled back themselves, rendering both of them barely distinguishable again.
Polls/projections today have put the SNP on 13, 17 and 35 seats.
ReplyDeleteAll three can't be accurate.
They can in a way: minor vi shifts can lead to major effects on seats under fptp.
Deletehttps://www.moreincommon.org.uk/general-election-2024/mrp/
ReplyDeleteMy word... I've changed my mind about John Swinney!
ReplyDeleteHe kicked ass tonight and Slab with Cole scuttle forming a pact in front
of our very eyes!!!!
Yep.....well done John boy!
Very encouraging performance by Swinney.
DeleteDid he turn in to Captain Scotland? The new Marvel superhero
DeleteThe best first minister Scotland has ever had apart from Nicola.
DeleteAt present I'd rank Swinney below Jack McConnell.
DeleteIn choice of kilts?
DeleteTwo thirds of respondents were in April, before GE was called.
ReplyDeleteSince then the direction of travel has been to Labour.
This poll should be treated with caution.
If you read carefully, the data is weighted to favour more recent responses.
DeleteSo James
ReplyDeleteDo these televised debates make a difference?
IMO Swinney was excellent tonight.
Who knew Slab and the lib dums were ALREADY trying to form a pact....lol
ReplyDeleteMarie Black on Newsnight going on about trans rights and losing the SNP votes was so bad I had to turn over and watch Scotland play Gibraltar in an empty stadium. Nice one Adams. Black also said Sturgeon should campaign in the election. What’s she going to campaign for? Improved visiting rights for prisoners and men in women prisons.
ReplyDeleteUnderstand what you're saying anon @ 11.o8
DeleteI'm in my 70's and tend to think this is a generational issue though I agree with you for the mostpart.
VOTE SNP ON JULY 4th
And what are you campainging for?
DeleteA return to direct rule?
If its does happen what will you do carp on a blog from the side lines, or man the barricades on the streets.
Thats what it will come to either react or be complicit with the yoons!
Anon @ 11.08PM You're wrong about the empty stadium, one side was well busy, and wrong about what Marie Black was doing, young people want to know about such stuff, and wrong about Nicola Sturgeon, the former FM is a vote winner, always was and still is
DeleteYou hate her if you want but do remember you've been wrong on everything else so far and you're still wrong
Anyone who thinks Black and Sturgeon are assets worth voting for should be certified and locked up for the good of society.
DeleteAnon at 4.30am - just taking Dr Jim at 1.00am away from whatever devices he uses to post his junk would suffice for me.
DeleteWhy would she vote for men in women’s prisons when she personally vetoed it happening in the case you are presumably referring to? Can you give any other instance in Scotland? Thought not. Liar.
DeleteI'm campaigning for an Independent Scotland.
ReplyDeleteVOTE SNP 2024
Dead right! there is only the SNP if you want Scotland protected as far as can be done from what Westminster always does
DeleteHow does voting SNP lead to an independent Scotland? Hasn't done so for the last decade, how will that change in the future?
DeleteThe Unionists see the SNP as an existential threat to the Union and are constantly banging on about SNPOut and use all the forces at their disposal to try and oust them. I have no desire to return to the 80s and 90s. This road may not be as short as we would like but it is at least a road, the other option is the wilderness.
DeleteHandsndshrimp
Deletewe have been in a wilderness for 10 years under the SNP. The SNP is now a party of devolution. The unionists have taken over the SNP.
Anon at 6.42. It will change when you and your fellow naysayers on here get up off your wee fat lardy asses and get out and campaign. Not holding my breath on that happening Take responsibility you tosspot.
DeleteAnon @ 2:20 PM doesn't answer the question though.
DeletePast elections have shown people have gone out and campaigned for the SNP, they've won election after election but it hasn't made a difference.
I agree with those who are encouraged by this poll. Winning the majority of seats will place SNP in an excellent position. It is now time for everyone to vote SNP who wishes to.
ReplyDeleteSeems Starmer is going to avoid more TV debates? How cowardly.
ReplyDeleteAt least Corbyn had the courage of his convictions.