Rutherglen & Hamilton West by-election result:
Labour 58.6% (+24.1)
SNP 27.5% (-16.7)
Conservatives 3.9% (-11.1)
Liberal Democrats 2.9% (-2.3)
Greens 2.0% (n/a)
Reform UK 1.3% (n/a)
Scottish Family Party 1.0% (n/a)
Scottish Socialist Party 0.8% (n/a)
Independence for Scotland Party 0.7% (n/a)
Trade Union and Socialist Coalition 0.6% (n/a)
Independent - Daly 0.2% (n/a)
Volt UK 0.2% (n/a)
Independent - Love 0.1% (n/a)
Independent - Cooke 0.0% (n/a)
I'm sometimes accused of being robotically hostile towards Humza Yousaf and never giving him credit where it is due, but I can honestly say that at the start of the night, when the gossip was about a narrowish Labour victory margin of around seven or eight points, my planned title for this blogpost was "Damp squib for Labour: they win Rutherglen but with underwhelming swing". When it started looking as if the margin might be more like fifteen points, I was going to say it was the nightmare outcome, because the result was bad enough for the SNP to suggest that they were on course for defeat at the general election, but not quite bad enough to shock them into rethinking the leadership question. But I can only react to the numbers that are actually in front of us, and they are truly shocking for Yousaf. Very few people saw a 30+ point Labour victory coming.
It should never be forgotten that this was a needless by-election that the SNP played a key role in bringing about. There was previously a pro-independence MP in place and she would have stayed there until the general election if the recall petition had failed, which came closer to happening than expected. It's impossible to know whether the SNP swung the balance with their decision to actively campaign alongside Labour to persuade people to sign the petition, but the possibility can't be ruled out. If so, the SNP leadership were the authors of this calamity in a very literal sense.
I've seen people trying to argue this morning that all that's happened is that Labour have turned out their voters from 2019 whereas three-quarters of SNP voters from 2019 stayed at home. I mean, come on. Differential turnout will have been a factor but it simply doesn't occur at that scale. There will have been plenty of Labour voters who didn't show up for this low-turnout election, meaning there will have been a substantial shift of votes from SNP to Labour, and indeed from Tory to Labour.
It's a sign of just how poor the politicians were at 'reading' this result in advance that the Greens were suggesting it would show them on course for a second list seat in the region. Instead they ended up with 2%, which wouldn't be winning them anything at all on the list.
If Yousaf survives this setback and remains leader (and it would be far better for the SNP if he doesn't) it's now essential that he brings his rivals Kate Forbes and Ash Regan back into the Scottish Government in senior positions, and introduces a more collective style of leadership. Factional rule with a B Team government has been tried, and unsurprisingly it has failed. But above all else Yousaf needs to start convincing voters that a vote for the SNP in the general election will directly lead to Scotland becoming an independent country. Anecdotally, the reports from Rutherglen suggested that pro-independence voters were drifting to Labour because they felt that independence was no longer really on offer to them.
Labour got nearly the same votes as in the GE in 2019, but the SNP just one-third. And that says it nearly all, except the article from the National on 4th Oct which had me nodding my head - "I went to Rutherglen to ask who people are voting for in the by-election" - because I've heard similar just from ordinary folk in Ayrshire:
ReplyDelete"fielding candidates that are only out for their own advancement"
"broken promises from politicians as a reason why they wouldn’t be voting"
"the conversations were very different to those being had by politicians and media commentators"
"Enough to bet that one option will attract more voters than any other: Abstention"
But particularly from the SNP who were talking cuckoo spit.
We'll have had our Independence then, and the useless SNP will be annihilated in the GE and the HE. Oh well, maybe in another lifetime. Onwards and Upwards!
Apparently from Yousaf on twitter, blurt, excuse and nonsense:
ReplyDelete“Circumstances of this by-election were always very difficult for us,”
“Collapse in the Tory vote, which went straight to Labour, also a significant factor. "
You were humped you total twit, because you're useless. You double-talk garbled garbage, and the SNP Indy vote stayed home. No wonder.
I hope this is a watershed moment for the SNP, there's a lot of p*ss to flush away. And that includes the "First Activist" who doesn't act or speak at all like a First Minister which is what he should be, or a leader.
Well done on speaking pro-independence common sense, James. You're one of the few people who seems to know who the enemy is these days.
ReplyDeleteNot only has the FM to go, but all the "suits" and most of the "payroll" go with him.
ReplyDeleteThey've destroyed my party.
I had a vote in this by-election and abstained.
I think this sentiment towards the SNP has become fairly common now. Those of us that saw it coming have been ridiculed by the hardcore faithful that support the SNP, and indeed the extremists that have infected the party from within too.
ReplyDeleteIf this is a sign of the routing to come, and I believe it is, then I think Alba need to seriously think about standing candidates against the SNP all across the country. The SNP lost its heart and direction and they both now reside within Alba.
The time for Alba to seriously consider running against the SNP was at this by election. Alba does not have the resources or widespread support to challenge the SNP across the country in a national election. And if you think the SNP get squeezed out of the discussion during Westminster elections, just wait to see what happens to a party that struggles to get more than a couple of points in the polls (at best).
DeleteThis was THE golden opportunity for Alba to seize the narrative, and the results bear that out. Dreadful turnout, a woeful performance from the SNP, and a large albeit tepid win for Labour by default.
An insurgent populist campaign by Salmond could have blown this by election wide open. He could easily have come a strong third, possibly even squeaked second, given how truly appalling the SNP result was. The political context, the logistics, and the constituency profile were quite literally as good for Alba as they were ever going to get.
Instead they have totally squandered their chance to put themselves on the map. And those chances don’t come around often for minor parties.
No, I’m afraid that Alba’s chance has come and gone, and they baulked at the opportunity. UKIP didn’t bleed concessions from the Tories by occasionally getting 3% in a council by election. They did so by standing in every national by election they could, registering large amounts of support, building momentum outside of national elections and then using that support and momentum as leverage in national elections to shift the narrative.
What leverage is Alba left with after this by election? None at all, and that’s entirely their own doing.
I read in one report that the SNP "had struggled to motivate activists during the campaign". Not at all surprised at that, if you want people to stand on street corners, post leaflets and knock on doors you need to give them something worth doing that for, and that doesn't exist in the SNP these days. I was an SNP member over 20yrs ago, had a gap and came back after the Indy Ref. I've helped post leaflets and knock doors with candidates, but I've not at all been active for the last few years. Still a member but to be honest I'm not sure I'd even vote for them at the moment, or if, for the first time in my life, I'd just not vote at all. Can't see any party that deserves my vote.
ReplyDelete"but to be honest I'm not sure I'd even vote for them at the moment, or if, for the first time in my life, I'd just not vote at all. Can't see any party that deserves my vote."
DeleteThat's exactly where I am. I told both my MP and MSP this and had a nice long chat with my MSP and he told me to watch the governance review. However the draft report he said was possible in June didn't emerge and from what I read the full report won't be presented at conference and has been kicked into the long grass of 2024 so everyone forgets about it.
An honestly stunning result. You only need to look at your expectations post yesterday to see for comparison. This is a result on the scale of Hamilton 1967 and Govan 1973 and 1988.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP are in a really tough situation. They are going to really struggle right across the Central Belt with Labour, and there is likely a close to 0% chance that tactical voting is going to hold together their coalitions in rural seats - likely preventing any gains or even making losses possible to a Tory party’s vote share is likely to be down, but by less than in England.
SNP/WGD numpties like to say that the SNP is the vehicle for independence, the only vehicle. Well Sturgeon's gang are running the vehicle into the ground and going nowhere. Time for a new team. A new vehicle. As long as all these moral free grifters are in charge of the SNP independence will remain nowt but a dream.
ReplyDeleteA new vehicle? Where was that in Rutherglen? Down on 0.7% of the vote, or too feart to even run?
DeleteThe SNP is the vehicle. It's rotting from the head down, as we all know, but whenever Scots go to vote it's the only game in town. The change must come from within.
Not that I’m optimistic it'll come soon. Humza won't quit for this. His faction needs him to remain at all costs, they came so close to losing power in the leadership election.
Is there enough will within to drive that change? As you say the parts of the SNP who are in power are just going to try to cling to power. I think the party will react with a mixture of burying their heads, making excuses and focussing on electability now. Fixing the independence vehicle for the rest of us will be the last thing on their minds this morning.
DeleteThe message from this by election is crystal clear.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP have lost the trust of the people. No ifs or buts, it's that simple.
Contrast the SNP under Salmond with today and you can see how the SNP can deliver neither good governance or independence.
The combination of careerism and middle class, gender politics sectarianism marginalised independence within the SNP some time ago. We all knew it and scrabbled about trying to find ways to reconnect with the pro independence electorate before voters grew exasperated and abandoned the SNP.
ReplyDeleteWell, that shift has started. We haven't retaken the SNP and we haven't got a viable, and widely recognised alternative. What lies in the future ?
Self neutered Starmerism for one term while the tories fully go 'fascist lite' giving themselves a louder and louder far right dog whistle.
I guess we must keep trying, and I'm in no great hurry to check out but, I'm glad I'm not any younger.
Yes, it is idiotic, and at that swing the calculators will be coming out with every sitting SNP MP.
ReplyDeleteAlba's decision not to stand is vindicated. The failure here is the SNP's and Humza Yousaf's.
I suspect that before Christmas we will see a few more announcements on MP retirements.
I always think that it's wrong to look at the share of the vote until the absolute numbers of votes have been analysed and conclusions drawn. The SNP shed at least 15,000 votes. That's a catastrophe that is only due to their performance.
A final comment is that ISP polled so badly that they were beaten by Reform and TUSC.
"Alba's decision not to stand is vindicated."
DeleteThe opposite of that statement is fairly obviously true. It would only have been vinidicated if the result had been narrow. There was a clear opportunity here for Alex Salmond to try to pick up pro-independence voters who would otherwise have abstained or gone to Labour, thus preventing a Labour surge being the sole story, which it now is.
If Alba had stood then the SNP would have attempted to lay the blame on them.
DeleteI've not changed my view that it would've need to have been Alex Salmond or no one.
Yes I’m sure a few more SNP MPs will jump before they’re pushed.
Delete"I've not changed my view that it would've need to have been Alex Salmond or no one."
DeleteWell yes of course, that's what I meant.
I'm not sure about that James, I see it like jacob72, as the Greens were also standing as a (so-called) pro independence party. ALBA's decision not to stand has left them blameless. Imagine the WGD folk had they picked up a sizable vote. This way clears the way for them to stand in future for what we have seen is a 'de-facto' rejection of the SNP.
DeleteTo be fair SNP are still WELL up on 2010.
ReplyDeleteThat's the problem with accepting devolved administrations, when you go into government you risk losing votes, it's a trick played by the controlling State.
ReplyDeleteAn Independence party should contest elections but abstain from taking government positions, especially when the devolved parliament has so limited powers
I agree partly with this, but I think abstention from Holyrood would be a mistake. Better I think to force Labour to have the Tories support them at HR and oppose constructively by publishing what you would've done differently.
DeleteA full Holyrood parliament term where Labour had to govern with Tory votes while the majority (or more likely largest party) SNP sat in opposition would probably do more to boost indy if the SNP focused on competent review and criticism of the minority administration.
Glad you got an article in the National, haven't got time to read it till later.
ReplyDeleteIn all of this it is important to remember that the support for independence in opinion polls is undiminished and remains about 50 percent or thereabouts. That is reassuring because we should not think of the fall in SNP support as being a sign that there has been a fall in support for Scottish independence in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely correct, all Humza needs to do is call the de facto vote on seats won and the real voters for independence will vote for it as long as they know no more MPs will be going to Westminster to waste their and our time
DeleteWe choose Scotland's government in Scottish elections, with Westminster we only choose abuse
I hope Forbes is busy talking to the people who will lose their seats at the GE .
ReplyDeleteTaxi for Humza.
I don’t think Forbes is the answer, she’s too in thrall with the growth commission, Freeports etc and oresided over the Scotwind giveaway as finance security
ReplyDelete