A belated look at last week's Survation poll showing another boost in support for independence - but more grim numbers for the unpopular new SNP leader Humza Yousaf

I'm not firing on all cylinders because of my injuries, so please forgive any spells of radio silence.  However, I did promise to have a belated look at last week's Survation / True North poll (I believe it was published on Wednesday), so let's quickly do that now.  It follows the familiar recent pattern of showing good news for independence support, but bad news for the SNP under their unpopular new leader Humza Yousaf.  Nevertheless, the previous Survation poll was unusually decent for the SNP, so the drop in SNP support in the new poll perhaps needs to be seen in that context.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 48% (+1)

No 52% (-1)

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 38% (-2)

Labour 31% (-1)

Conservatives 18% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)

Greens 2% (+1)

Reform UK 1% (-1)

Alba 1% (-)

Seats projection (current boundaries, with changes from 2019 election): SNP 32 (-16), Labour 16 (+15), Conservatives 6  (-), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)

The SNP are just about retaining their majority in Scottish seats at Westminster on these numbers - they would have 32 seats and unionist parties in combination would have 27.  In the real world, though, that's too fragile an advantage to bring to the table in a Westminster election, which is an 'away fixture' for the SNP and a 'home fixture' for both Labour and the Tories.  If the SNP don't change their leader before the general election, they face the very real prospect of losing their Westminster majority and of slipping into second place behind Labour.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 39% (-3)

Labour 30% (-)

Conservatives 19% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 32% (-3)

Labour 26% (+1)

Conservatives 19% (+1)

Greens 10% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 7% (-)

Alba 3% (n/a)

Reform UK 2% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 51 (-13), Labour 36 (+14), Conservatives 24 (-7), Greens 10 (+2), Liberal Democrats 8 (+4)

The pro-independence majority at Holyrood would be lost on these numbers - the SNP and Greens in combination would have 61 seats, and unionist parties in combination would have 68.

Humza Yousaf's net personal approval rating in this poll stands at -13, which puts him eighteen points behind Anas Sarwar, and fifteen points behind Keir Starmer.

I was specifically asked on Wednesday if it was true that the poll has Alba on 6% of the list vote in Glasgow.  Technically the answer is "yes" but to be absolutely blunt I regard regional subsamples in Scottish polls as totally unreliable and meaningless.  To get an idea of whether Alba have a chance of nicking a seat somewhere, you need to look at the national figure, and admittedly on 3% it's just about possible, albeit unlikely.  On 4% there'd be a better chance, but what Alba really need to do is push up to 6% of the national list vote, on which they could expect to take something in the region of 6-8 seats.

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