What will happen to Labour's GB-wide poll lead if the bafflingly strong Reform UK vote starts to return to the Tories?

I was beginning to wonder a couple of days ago if Labour's GB-wide lead was melting away. A survey from Deltapoll stood out in particular...

GB-wide voting intentions for the next UK general election (Deltapoll, 9th-12th December 2022):

Labour 45% (-3)

Conservatives 32% (+4)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)

Greens 6% (+2)

Reform UK 4% (-)

SNP 3% (-1)

UKIP 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 40%, Labour 36%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Conservatives 12%

(Note: Unusually, the Wikipedia list of polls seems to have the result of this poll wrong, at least in part - the above numbers are taken direct from the Deltapoll data tables.)

That certainly does not look like a decisive Labour lead with eighteen months or longer still to go until a general election, bearing in mind that an unpopular government will often enjoy a swing back in its favour as polling day approaches.  At around the same time as the Deltapoll survey, there were also polls from Kantar, Savanta, Omnisis and Redfield & Wilton which showed Labour leads that were a bit less commanding than we were seeing a few weeks ago.

But now we're suddenly seeing more polls with really awful numbers for the Tories - for example, the following from YouGov...

GB-wide voting intentions for the next UK general election (YouGov, 14th-15th December 2022):

Labour 48% (-)

Conservatives 23% (-1)

Reform UK 9% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)

SNP 5% (+1)

Greens 5% (-1)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-1)

Scottish subsample: SNP 46%, Labour 27%, Conservatives 12%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Reform UK 5%, Plaid Cymru 1%

(Before anyone asks, no I don't know why Plaid Cymru have 1% of the Scottish vote.  Possibly a Welsh person on holiday.)

Perhaps the new Tory dip is caused by minds being concentrated by the nurses' strike in England, or perhaps the appearance of ebbs and flows is just an illusion caused by sampling variation.  Either way, what does occur to me is that the hole the Tories are in is only as deep as it is because of the current baffling strength of the Reform UK vote.  We have to assume that most Reform UK voters would still choose the Tories over Labour, so if those voters 'go home' in the same way that Brexit Party voters returned to the Tories as the 2019 election approached, the Labour lead could be cut quite drastically.

I know some people will argue that any such effect could be offset by Green voters drifting to Labour, which is true to an extent, but the difference is that the Greens are a much more established and familiar part of the political furniture.  I do wonder just how committed some of these supposed Reform UK voters truly are.  Is it really credible to think a relatively new party led by Richard "who?" Tice is ahead of the Liberal Democrats?

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