"The SNP's Stephen Flynn has insisted 'a number of options were being floated' about the route ahead to indyref2"
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) December 10, 2022
There is no route ahead to indyref2. That option is gone and we're now moving forward to a plebiscite election. Anything else is what is known as a "massive U-turn".
In the hours after I posted the above tweet, a few people claimed that Stephen Flynn's words had been misconstrued, but I've read the interview and unfortunately that's not the case at all. He's clearly suggesting there might be alternatives to the plan of using the next Westminster election as a de facto independence referendum - which would be fine if he was referring to the overwhelmingly sensible alternative option of using an early Holyrood election at some point in 2023, but that's the one option he explicitly rules out. He pejoratively dismisses the idea as "collapsing Holyrood in a cost of living crisis which I think would be utterly absurd". That's a complete nonsense, by the way - if there was a Holyrood election scheduled for next year, nobody would describe that as "the scheduled collapse of Holyrood" and nobody would suggest that democracy should be suspended just because we're in the middle of a cost of living crisis.
But nevertheless, that's the daft spin he's putting on it, which logically means the alternatives he's referring to are reduced to just two: a) abandoning the idea of a de facto referendum altogether, which in the light of the Supreme Court ruling is tantamount to abandoning support for independence itself, or b) twiddling our thumbs for the next three and a half years until the next scheduled Holyrood election comes around in May 2026. Either of those would be a total betrayal of solemn commitments made by Nicola Sturgeon to SNP members and to the wider independence movement. Using the 2024 Westminster election as a de facto referendum is sub-optimal for reasons that have been well-rehearsed, but if for self-interested reasons the SNP are determined to rule out an early Holyrood election, then Westminster 2024 it will have to be. Apart from the breach of faith that waiting any longer would entail, the idea that we would wait an entire decade after the 2016 EU referendum to give people a choice on independence is self-evidently crazy and strategically inept.
It's impossible to escape the conclusion that career interests are distorting the SNP's decision-making at every turn. SNP Westminster MPs are worried that unionist tactical voting in a 2024 plebiscite election could cost them their seats, while SNP Holyrood MSPs who thought they were safe in office until 2026 are horrified by the thought of "unnecessarily" facing election before then. Guys, it's supposed to be independence before personal interests, not the other way around. Maybe that should be number one in any AIM indy pledge, ahead of all the "transphobia" stuff.
Incidentally, as far as I can see the Herald are just plain wrong in claiming that the Alba Party want the 2026 Holyrood election to be used as a plebiscite. I'm no longer on the Alba NEC, so I can't tell you definitively what the position is, but everything I've heard suggests that Alba are calling for an early Holyrood election well before 2026.
The SNP certainly seem to be doing their best to prove Rev Stu right.
ReplyDeleteNot even the SNP are capable of that. "The Yes vote has been flatlining on 47% for the last six years", remember.
DeleteYes. He’s full of crap. But he’s probs right on this issue to be fair.
DeleteCan't we just ask him? It seems that the only people who don't have any access to ask our representatives about their stance are independence supporters. There are questions I would like to have answers to, but the media never asks them.
ReplyDeleteWT - I wrote to my MP Oswald in October no reply. Tempted to write to her and suggest now that she is no longer deputy Westminster leader she may have the time to reply to her constituents. I wrote to her in 2020 expressing my concern about Sturgeons speech in Jan 2020 and got a very condescending reply basically telling me not to worry my little head that the SNP were working very hard to get Indyref2 and Scottish independence.
DeleteJust how many last chances are the SNP going to be given by independence supporters? If you are not feeling embarrassed by the SNP by now then you must be a Britnat or a numpty.
"If you are not feeling embarrassed by the SNP by now then you must be a Britnat or a numpty."
DeleteIn Skier's case it's both.
I had the same when I wrote to mine. No reply.
DeleteThey don't reply to anyone who is not a true believer. It's cultish behaviour of the worst kind. They'll have you down as Alba supporters or, even worse, readers of Wings.
DeleteNo referendum - de facto or otherwise - soon no support or votes for SNP. They'll certainly lose their seats that way.
ReplyDeleteWhy is Stephen Flynn re tweeting and commenting on the England/France game in an England supportive manner?
ReplyDeleteI am seriously disturbed by the current snp official behaviour.
I very nearly replied to him to say that there's this other team I quite like, called Scotland.
DeleteSeems like Flynn is getting cosy feet, doesn't want to be on the frontline in a de facto referendum and hoping England win the next world cup. It's a good job he is "driving home a positive vision for Scotland's future" after three consecutive polls showing a majority for independence.
DeleteI do have a worry about collapsing the Holyrood government, unless it is built up carefully as our only route to Independence. There have been occasions in the past where sitting governments have been punished for calling an early election. In your next polling effort you could explore how people feel about that.
ReplyDeleteBill. - Johnston collapsed Westminster parliament to get Brexit done and got an 80 seat majority. Sturgeon could collapse Holyrood to get independence done if she really wanted to get independence done but she really wants to get GRA done.
DeleteWorth considering Bill too that scheduling a collapse for a specific date a year in advance will seem a bit odd to an electorate. Not saying it's insurmountable, I don't know, but isn't the same as collapsing a government in the usual way this occurs.
DeleteThere is a lot a stake for the SNP leadership, both personally and politically, so I understand the caution. However, we are now at the stage where events may overtake them. Many people still voting SNP understand they are stalling and will put up with it for so long (but no longer). The longer this stalemate continues, the more likely the UK establishment will have time to devise a cunning plan to nueter the SNP completely and delay independence for another 10 years. They must act now. Last chance saloon time.
ReplyDeleteI suspect that the situation may be even worse than suggested.
ReplyDeleteYesterday I raised the question of 'which election' with a prominent, local YES activist who told me that word from a recent Believe in Scotland meeting was that a Westminster election was the one because it would have more credibility with international opinion. The given reasons seemed vague and very far away from the downsides of restricted franchise and distant likely date.
BiS has seemed to me the best we've got for an over arching group that doesn't dictate to local Yessers.
If accurate as reported where do we go from here ?
Worse still, the SNP will be viewed as indecisive, weak and cowardly - nobody will vote for such a party - it will be the end for the SNP in terms of power in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteTrue enough. Does anyone have any insight into the relationship between BiS and SNP power holders ? I've thought for some time that eventually a bid would be made by the latter to neuter the former.
DeleteAs many readers of SGP will know I continually banged the drum for a de facto referendum for the May 2021 Holyrood election. I said a true party of independence would make a vote for the SNP a vote for independence not a vote for a referendum.
ReplyDeleteI now believe that Sturgeon will ditch the UK GE and state it will be a de facto referendum for Holyrood in 2026. The only question outstanding is WHEN she will announce this. Numpties will then go along with this quoting demographics and liar Skiers Ski slope graph and saying "time is on our side" etc etc. which is code for doing nowt.
This will mean Sturgeon will have achieved the not insignificant task of retaining power for 12 years using a promise of a referendum which she will never actually deliver.
In summary, Sturgeon is a parasite on the independence movement and like all parasites should be removed asap.
I agree with the ditch 2024 WM bit.
DeleteI'm not sure whether she'll do a 2026 call.
But either way I don't think she will do a Yes Alliance at Holyrood as that would jeopardise SNP domination by giving Alba credibility, the thing the SNP wants to avoid the most. And a Yes Alliance is absolutely necessary to doing it. And I don't think the "de facto" thing will have any teeth partly as a consequence of no Yes Alliance. She won't be willing to declare UDI which she will have to do as WM will not negotiate or recognise the plebiscite.
More she'll push back to 2026, Labour will get in in 2024 give some Broon devomax shite which SNP accepts and then 2026 gets buried.
The 2026 call would be just more time wasting. If she announced it in 2024 she can say it is only two years to wait. Sturgeon is the master of time wasting and kicking the independence can down the road.
Deleteoh I know all that about her - have done for years. But if she states 2026 holyrood then this is battle stations for Alba. 2024 is difficult for Alba as they have to be seen as constructive and standing in a fptp election could be seen as divisive for indy movement by folk that cannae think.
DeleteIt's a harder line for her to argue for 2026 given the list vote. I think they could still try to: 1. argue both votes SNP and pretend it's a pleb not saying what they'd do after 2. renege upon the 2026 "commitment" 3. Not say anything about 2026. 4. do 2026 yes alliance wuth a route to UDI when WM doesn't recognise it
I think option 1 is the most likely scenario. She won't do option 4. and I think option 2 "reneging" would see her get huge criticism as holyrood is widely considered the venue for the pleb.
She could just sayin nothing i.e. option 3 (and maybe even leave), but I think there's more can kicking to be had in calling it a pleb without it being a pleb as robertson said on newsnight after the initial westminster announcement of "fighting the next uk general election with independence as "the main issue" if we absolutely must".. I think the pretend pleb is the next can kick,
Good to see you and Stu on the same page for once.
ReplyDeleteI gather there is now a 4th poll showing a YES majority.
"Stu" and I are not on the same page - he is actively willing the independence campaign to fail, and will almost certainly attempt to sabotage a plebiscite election if it occurs by telling his readers to either abstain or vote for unionist parties - just as he disgracefully did on the day of the 2021 Holyrood election.
DeleteI didn't know that (not been interested enough to visit WOS since he announced shutting up shop and only then only rarely) - he can fk off then.
DeleteI did, however, enjoy him making the Dug's life a misery.
DeleteA passing thought : all Stuart Campbell's headline stories are about him (and have been so for a while) - indy is not about personalities.
DeleteI am beginning to think Flynn's mantra may well be " We will not be dragged out of Westminster against our will."
ReplyDelete"Please, I beg you, chers MPs, do not let Scotland out now."
DeleteBig boy dugger Bob Lamont thinks that indyref2 is on the way after the recent polls. One more mandate Bob that's all we need, they're bound to cave in then. Vote SNP.
ReplyDeleteIf Flynn doesn't want to be on the front line in a de facto referendum then surely he must want a...... oops no
ReplyDelete"one of which I do vehemently disagree with, which is the idea of collapsing Holyrood in a cost of living crisis which I think would be utterly absurd."
And then there's the timing..
It's just never a good time, Brexit negotiations ongoing, Save the UK from Brexit with a second referendum, Covid pandemic, Ukraine war, Death of the Queen, Cost of Living crisis............
Maybe best to ride the green benches chairlift up Skier's ski slope and wait for that inevitable referendum, obviously the world by then will have become a utopian paradise in which all harm and suffering will have ended. And who knows when we get there we might not need a referendum in any case because Scotland will be enjoying a golden era, the "best of both worlds" but we'll keep one just over the horizon in case things get worse.
Enough of this sh**. Vote Alba
I think I'm right in saying the last two council by elections have seen a drop in support for the SNP by 4 or 5%. Just council by elections of course [low turnouts etc] but maybe a sign that pro-indy voters want to send a message to the SNP leadership to stop faffing about on independence.
ReplyDeleteTheir message should be quite clear: where did they take their votes? Was it Alba? No. Hmm. Maybe not so keen then. Especially if they went for the Brits. Wasn’t Lab the biggest net winner?
DeleteThis whole "Let's suspend democracy because there's something difficult going on" is deeply worrying, and whilst we might expect it from the Tories it's quite shocking to hear it from the SNP as well. There was a general election in the middle of WWII FFS!
ReplyDelete"In the middle" is a stretch, because it was after VE Day, but admittedly the war against Japan was still raging in the Pacific.
DeleteThe reason Scotland is in this mess of a union is because we had self serving politicians back then 1707 and still have self serving politicians now 2022 , there a very few politicians who genuinely work for the peoples best interests Alex Salmond was one but the far reaching tentacles of Westminster put him in a freeze.
ReplyDeleteA Hero is needed
Flynn isn’t one
Like Robertson and the others he is a success in his career
His career is what’s important
Not Scottish independence
Is there a Hero that will free us and fight the corruption within and outside
5th Yes lead - YouGov New Scottish Independence poll, YouGov 6 - 9 Dec (changes vs 30 Sep - 4 Oct):
ReplyDeleteYes ~ 47% (+4)
No ~ 42% (-3)
Don't Know ~ 8% (+1)
Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
Yes ~ 53% (+4 / +8)
No ~ 47% (-4 / -8)