Here's why the Sun's claims of "plummeting independence support" should be taken with a heavy dose of salt

Someone asked me on the previous thread if I had any analysis of the new poll in the "Scottish" Sun.  I hadn't heard about it, so I looked it up and found the headline "UNION POLL BOOST: Support for Scottish independence plummets since Queen's death".  Now, I must admit that for a second or two my heart sank, because we're living through an unprecedented period of BBC-led state propaganda seeking to ruthlessly exploit the Queen's death in order to weaken the independence cause, and it's far from implausible that would have had some effect, at least in the short term.  However, you won't be surprised to hear that all may not be quite as it appears.

The "exclusive" poll was conducted by Deltapoll, and supposedly finds 42% would currently vote in favour of independence.  So the first issue here is that the Sun are weirdly vague on whether that number is before or after Don't Knows are stripped out.  It's probably the latter, in which case 42% would indeed be unusually low for recent times, but I'm certainly not going to take that as read until we have confirmation - it wouldn't be the first time a newspaper has cynically led us up the garden path about an independence poll.  (Never forget Scotland on Sunday and #Matchettgate.)

Even odder, though, is the Sun's claim that 42% represents a 7% drop in the Yes vote.  I don't see how that can possibly be true, because there's no sign of Deltapoll having previously conducted an independence poll for many years.  Presumably the Sun must be making an apples-and-oranges bogus comparison with a poll conducted by a different firm using different methodology.

The reality is that major events such as the one we're currently living through can often produce unusual polling figures that are reversed within a few weeks.  Even if the Sun's claims turn out to have a partial grain of truth in them, what will matter far more is what the polls show once the BBC hysteria has died away.

UPDATE: Here's another gem from the Sun's appallingly-written report on the poll... 

"Close to two thirds of respondents in our poll, 57 per cent, said they expect to watch the Queen’s funeral on Monday."

Er, I don't know how to break the news to you guys, but 57% is closer to one-half (7% away) than it is to two-thirds (9.7% away).

I'm becoming increasingly suspicious of this Deltapoll survey supposedly showing the Yes vote on 42%. I can't find any mention of it from the likes of Britain Elects, and why do the Sun give the Yes figure but not the No figure? I'll await the data tables with interest.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) September 18, 2022

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We've already seen since Nicola Sturgeon's announcement that the overwhelmingly unionist mainstream media are attempting a 'shock and awe' campaign to try to kill off independence - and the misuse of polling is playing a key part in that.  If you'd like to balance things out with polling commissioned by a pro-independence outlet and which asks the questions we want to see asked, one way of doing that would be to help Scot Goes Pop's fundraising drive - see details below.

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