This way of thinking could lose us a plebiscite election. Worry about the betrayal if and when it happens, not when we're trying to win a mandate.https://t.co/V6b2sa3O5Z
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) July 23, 2022
Explain to me, how every vote for Tory, Labour or Lib Dem is counted towards support for the union. But only votes for the SNP would count towards votes for independence? Because you’re talking about completely different rules for the two sides. Which is bonkers.
— Mel 🇪🇺 (@meljomur) July 23, 2022
Eh? The pro-independence side has benefited massively from a split unionist vote for the last three general elections. If anyone can explain to me why it would be a GOOD IDEA to throw away that massive advantage, then believe me, I'm all ears.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) July 23, 2022
I'm not understanding, are you saying the SNP need to win a majority of seats and votes?
— Cath's new account (@scarycath) July 24, 2022
I'm away from home at the moment and in a place with very intermittent signal, so blogging will be light for a while. However, I'm going to struggle my way through a short blogpost because I'm becoming increasingly exasperated - and frankly alarmed - at the willful naivety on display on social media about the idiotic idea that we can somehow afford to be more relaxed about splitting the pro-independence vote at a plebiscite election than we would be at a normal election. As opposed to, y'know, the self-evident truth that a plebiscite election is a hundred times more important than a normal election and that we will therefore have a hundred times less scope for destructive self-indulgence.Dear God, if there isn't a pro-indy majority of seats *at a minimum* we haven't got a hope in hell of pressing home the mandate. So the answer to your question is 'yes', but I'm not really sure why you'd even need to ask it.
— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) July 25, 2022
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Every UK general election I've voted in has been a plebiscite one. Scotland doesn't have a meaningful representation at Westminster, even for unionists, so Independence is the only policy that matters.
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can see, the last UK general election that could reasonably be considered a plebiscite election was 1997, because that was the last time to date that a major party has sought an outright mandate for independence at a general election.
DeleteEvery time I vote it is for Independence.
DeleteThe reason that the last plebiscite election was 1997 is because it predates the reformation of the Scottish Parliament. So it seems to me that a Scottish Parliament election is the more appropriate occasion for a plebiscite election. If, however, the dominant party in Scotland wants a plebiscite election at Westminster, I agree we should accommodate them. I joined Alba to further the restoration of Scottish national sovereignty and if this is what does it, I don’t care who gets the credit (yes, it will be quite insufferable for a while).
DeleteNow, if the Scottish National Party fails to start delivering immediately after the 2024 election, it is incumbent upon Alba to do all in in our power to remove the SNP/Green coalition from government in 2026 and replace them with a government that will do what it says in its party constitution.
Splitting the vote guarantees failure - just look at the history: even in the 'tsunami election' of 2015 the SNP achieved a fraction less than 50% of the vote. (It was 49.97% to be specific). However, including Green voters that year the total was 51.3% - good enough, just.
ReplyDeleteSo there has to be a 'Yes Alliance' at any plebiscitary election. Even if they are all SNP candidates they need to stand under a banner that is unequivocal in indicating that a vote for YA is a vote for Independence.
The problem is that Nicola Sturgeon has left this ambiguous: In her announcement of 28.06.22 she said "my party will fight the UK general election" on the single issue of Independence. (See https://www.yes.scot/nicola-sturgeons-full-statement-announcing-the-2023-independence-referendum/). Whatever her intention it needs implies that this is SNP only.
The FM needs to be crystal clear that it is not 'SNP only' but it is 'YES only' and that there will be a single pro-Independence candidate standing in every constituency under a "YA for Independence" banner.
I am struggling to feel anything but despair at Nicola's latest stunt. I do understand why we need to come together. But look around you. Do you see any excitement , does anyone truly believe we are getting a referendum, or the GE will be used as a plebiscite?
ReplyDeleteThe good feeling lasted about a week. Then people realised it was just another Nicola ruse. Look at the timing, right before parliament
recess. It gets her a free pass for the summer. It just doesn't feel right to me, and to be honest I can't be bothered with anymore mibbes aye, mibees naw.
I don't think we are any further forward.
"Imagine the pro-indy side gets 50.4% of the vote at a plebiscite election. Although that would be a narrow victory, it would be hard to quibble with, because the conduct of a general election will be beyond reproach and it will produce a high turnout - perhaps not as high as the 2014 indyref, but if it's good enough to elect a UK government, it's good enough for any other mandate."
ReplyDeleteAnd good enough for independence regardless of the britnat media, britnat Westminster and any fearties in the Scottish government. Since should Westminster continue to ignore that result and with it Scotland's desire for independence [and, in my opinion, it's a fair bet it will] then the only thing left for Scotland, its government and its people will be to declare UDI.
Sturgeon's repeated desire to obey Westminster law doesn't exactly fill one with independence fervour.
The SNP and Scottish government are putting up electoral barriers not to fight behind but to hide behind. But aye, even after all that, I'll still vote for the SNP at the next GE. And don't they know it.
I thought Robin McAlpine's article was brilliant. Making many of the same points that you have made here, James.
ReplyDelete1) Candidates must NOT take their seats. They are not standing as candidates for a Westminster seat. They are standing for independence.
2) Indy parties must NOT produce a manifesto for Westminster. They can produce a manifesto for independence
3) All candidates should have a 'FOR INDEPENDENCE' or a Yes logo instead of a party logo on the voting slip. They are not standing for their party this time, they are standing for independence. Ideally you present just one candidate.
Hold firm to that plan, and we can win.
https://robinmcalpine.org/how-to-make-this-work/
Absolutely, we need to unite for independence. If we get the vote, and the SNP then squander it, shame on them. But I’ll do my part to make sure they get a mandate for independence in 2024 and have no excuse for delivering anything less.
ReplyDeleteA fair number of voices out there wishing to have multi-indy parties. They're not true indy supporters. They're agents of the British State and not to be trusted. Every true indy supporter knows that if we are to have any chance of winning this (and that includes in the eyes of the international community), then Scotland MUST work as one like we have never done before. Stop being our own worst enemy. Stop listening to these voices that want to divide us.
ReplyDelete