Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta ComRes / The Economist)
Yes 49% (-1)
No 51% (+1)
That's a trivial, margin of error change from the January poll which still leaves us with a statistical tie (ie. due to the margin of error, the poll is essentially saying that either side could have a slight lead). What none of the MSM reporting of this poll takes any account of is that ComRes have been on the No-friendly end of the spectrum over the last year, sometimes producing quite substantial No leads, so in a relative sense, a 49-51 split is a decent result for Yes.
I haven't found the fieldwork dates yet, and those will be crucial. If the poll was conducted in whole - or even in part - after Russia invaded Ukraine, the numbers will look even better for Yes, because international crisis situations would typically be expected to reduce support for constitutional change at home, if only temporarily.
There are supplementary questions asking about the timing and circumstances of an indyref. I'm going to ignore the unionist spin on those and withhold judgement until I see the exact question wording and the detailed results.
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For Alba members out there, just to let you know we had an NEC meeting this morning - that's the sixth we've had so far. The reason I haven't been reporting about them on the blog is simply the confidentiality rules, but rest assured they've been taking place regularly and I've been attending them. I think you'll be really excited when you see how credible and extensive a challenge Alba will be mounting at the council elections in May.
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Please bear with me as I continue promoting Scot Goes Pop's fundraising drive. Opinion polls are so expensive that since I started commissioning them, fundraising has almost become like painting the Forth Bridge. If you'd like to help this blog continue for another year, or to help us commission another full-scale poll like the six we've commissioned over the last two years, here are the various options for donating...
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I cannot find the dates of this poll, however here is a link to the article in question. A lot is wishful thinking.
ReplyDeletehttps://archive.ph/JYVVw
" I think you'll be really excited when you see how credible and extensive a challenge Alba will be mounting at the council elections in May."
ReplyDeleteI really hope so James.
I have been getting somewhat disheartened by the division within the Yes movement, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine seemingly even splitting pro-Alba and non-SNP parts of the Indy community.
We need that like a hole in the head as we already have the schisms over SNP/Alba, GRA reform/Hate Crime act, Section30/Plebiscite election/Treaty of Union dissolution/etc routes et al.
Alba really need to perform well in the local authority elections. My concern is that the lack of coverage for Alba will hurt. In addition it is difficult to see things getting better until the plot against Alex Salmond is revealed and out in the open, with the conspirators brought to book.
I hope that I am wrong though.
Duncanio
DeleteIt's a matter of fact that a good national independence leader should strive to maintain unity amongst all those who want independence. Sturgeon has failed dismally and that's a fact as well.
Whether or not she is doing it on purpose or not is up for discussion and a matter of opinion. Many years ago I thought she was not very good as a leader for Scottish independence now I think she is a very talented worker but for the Britnats. Full marks to Sturgeon for being very good at her real job - destroying the SNP.
Aye James, you must up your game the WGD numpty Capella beat you to publishing the poll results earlier this morning.
DeleteMore Cognitive Dissonance from a WGD Numpty.
ReplyDeletePoor old Hamish 100 has a go at you James and Alba. He also says nobody should give Alba a vote in May. SNP and Greens only.
Now if the numpty is so confident of Sturgeon holding Indyref2 anytime soon and winning it then what the hell does it matter who votes for whom in May. We will be independent. So the truth is for Hamish and the rest of them it is all about the party and fawning over the great leader. Voting for Sturgeon will, at best, deliver a wee bit more devolution of powers.
Now for those of us who think Sturgeon will never deliver independence and is a Britnat then we want her gone by voting for a genuine party of independence so the voting is important.
🙈🙉 - sums up the WGD numpties when evidence/information appears that challenges their mindset.
DeleteThe accompanying Economist article tries to spin the poll as showing Scotland would decisively vote ‘No’. Not a great change from their ‘Skintland’ approach some years ago. For a magazine with an international reputation, its approach to Scotland is very London metrocentric.
ReplyDeleteI admire your resilience IfS, venturing into that WGD den of Sturgeon cultists. I used to occasionally visit the site but it's not good for my blood pressure. What will it take for these people to wake up?
ReplyDeleteA Bruce
DeleteI have no idea what it will take for them to wake up. I am not a psychiatrist but I do know that they are being led by phonies. I would feel sorry for them if it wasn't for all the disgusting stuff they have written about Salmond/James Kelly etc. One of the phonies is Mr Kavanagh who knows fine well what Sturgeon did to Salmond but acts otherwise.