There was an attempted comment on the blog a few days ago which I didn't let through because it contained a potentially offensive word. However it asked me a question which I think I was intended to take seriously: how many council seats do I expect the SNP to lose to the unionist parties in May due to the GRA reform controversy? Well, if we're talking about net losses, the answer is pretty straightforward: it's zero. On the basis of the available opinion poll evidence, the SNP should actually be on course for substantial net gains. Although by now it's beyond all credible dispute that the Scottish public are overwhelmingly opposed to the proposed GRA reform (multiple recent polls all tell the same story), the issue doesn't seem to be shifting many votes as of yet, and that's unlikely to change by May unless the Scottish Government are strategically naive enough to bring matters to a head before polling day.
Nevertheless, there is still a health warning to be put on any predictions about the election result, given that the SNP vastly underperformed expectations at the last local elections in May 2017 by essentially flatlining in the low 30s. Because that phenomenon has never been adequately explained, ie. because we don't have a clue why it happened, it's impossible to exclude the possibility that something similar could happen again. It remains the case that the only poll thus far with a voting intention question specifically about the 2022 local elections is the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll from October, which had the SNP on 45%, the Tories on 22% and Labour on 21%. But we can already say with near-certainty that the real result won't look quite like that, because the poll didn't pick up the likely significant percentage vote for independent candidates. Adding a generic 'independents' option to polls wouldn't be any kind of silver bullet, because hardly anyone is a generic supporter of independent candidates - unless the menu of options somehow specifies who the independent candidates will be in each respondent's own ward, the vote share any poll reports for independents is going to be pretty meaningless. In any case, the wildcard factor of the independents cannot explain the opinion poll failure from five years ago, because unionist parties are no less likely than the SNP to leak votes to independents.
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You never know what's going to swing a vote.
ReplyDeleteAs I've stated here before the SNP's inaction over independence had led me to decide to vote Alba 1, Greens 2, and SNP 3 in the knowledge that the vote would almost certainly ultimately transfer to the SNP in the end, but still send a message, in as far as any single vote can, however...
The decision to press ahead with workplace car parking charges has made me reconsider. Don't get me wrong, I'm actually in favour of green policies in general but I live in a rural location and the car is the only means by which I can travel to work. If the SNP/Greens re-introduced public transport that I could use to get to work then fair enough, but otherwise it's just another unjust tax. It's yet another urban-centric policy that completely ignores the rural economy. Combine that with the huge financial impact that I have suffered during lockdown and my vote in May will now be Alba 1. That's it.
The Numpties think everybody votes SNP because Sturgeon is just wonderful. As ever they don't have a clue. A lot of people vote SNP for Scottish independence. A lot of people do not see a vote in council elections having any relevance for independence so the SNP vote is fragile.
ReplyDeleteLike Stravaiger I will vote Alba or ISP if they are standing. The SNP and Greens have lost my vote. The Greens for good and the SNP until the current Sturgeon gang of devolutionalist/ unionists are well gone and some are enjoying the same hospitality from Her Majesty that Craig Murray enjoyed.
WGD nicophant numpties like Bob Lamont, Capella and Tam the Bam are all voting for Sturgeon and SNP to keep the blind faith, while
ReplyDeletethe mad liar Skier whose Ski graph ( a bit like a crystal ball except it only tells Skier what he wants it to say) continually reports that independence is inevitable if we only wait long enough.
This is the idiot who is incapable of composing his own words. Nothing but a sad imposter.
DeleteThe SNP has already called [in its usual half-hearted way] for a big vote for them in order to add impetus for independence support. [Don't laugh]. I can't help feeling there will be the usual low turnout anyway. Is there any sign at all, or do you have a gut feeling, about an increase in this year's turnout?
ReplyDeleteThe nasty WGD Numpty Dr Jim is getting his knickers in a twist because Boris Johnston has said there will not be an independence referendum because it would be a disaster for the UK, but he keeps the blind faith that St Nicola can persuade him to deliver one.
ReplyDeleteIt's a common belief among activists in Argyll and Bute that our council is so democratically degraded that appointed officers, rather than elected councillors, make the decisions on many matters. The region is a nonsense for one council to run - smaller is potentially more beautiful.'Local' government in Scotland needs root and branch reform.
ReplyDeleteMaybe a subconscious awareness of this among some voters leads them to support the can't be bothered party in local elections ?
The broad shoulders of the UK. A term used by better together and Britnats. Well who used it on Debate Night this evening? Was it the Tory MSP or Anas Arwar Labour in Scotland leader? No it was the SNPs very own Britnat Pete Wishart.
ReplyDelete“ doing it properly making sure that the broad shoulders of the whole UK covered this”
Pension Pete so absorbed in to the UK he even uses their terminology.
The nicophant WGD Numpty Collatin says:
ReplyDelete“ God I count the days ‘til we drive BBC from our land.”
Sturgeon on the other hand says the BBC is a valued institution. What do the numpties like Collatin have to say about Sturgeons love of the BBC. Nothing.
A perfect example of Cognitive Dissonance.