Last Sunday, I was very, very close to trying to raise funds for a snap opinion poll, because there had been no independence polling for well over a month, which seemed crazy given that the SNP and Greens have only just won a resounding mandate to hold an independence referendum. In theory there could have been a marked swing to Yes and we'd have been totally oblivious to it. Literally a couple of hours after I had that thought, the Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times appeared right on cue, so there's no longer any great urgency. However, it looks like the monthly ComRes polls for the Scotsman have been discontinued now the election is over, and with the SNP leadership and the mainstream media seemingly reaching an unspoken agreement to jointly take independence off the agenda for the foreseeable future, we may well find that polls are few and far between during the rest of the year. I think it might be an idea to try to have some funding ready to go so I can fill at least one of the long gaps. I'll keep an open mind about the exact timing - just the most suitable moment that crops up over the next few months.
Apart from the independence question, there are quite a few other subjects that I think should be asked about - for example, attitudes to the renewed mandate to hold a referendum and whether people think it covers all Plan B options, voting intentions for the local elections next year, the issue of the Royal family's interference in Scottish politics, and perhaps also the devolution of broadcasting to tie in with our petition. And if any or all of these subjects are adequately covered by other polls before I run mine, there are plenty of other questions worth asking.
Because the Scot Goes Pop general fundraiser for 2021 hasn't reached its target yet (I stopped promoting it before the election so as not to distract from fundraising by pro-indy parties), I don't think it would be a good idea to have two fundraisers underway at the same time, so I've once again done what I did earlier in the year - I've increased the target figure of the general fundraiser by a few thousand pounds, and any money that is donated within the next couple of weeks, up to a total of £5000, will be set aside specifically for the next poll.
Part of the reason I've decided to get the ball rolling is that Scottish Skier has been trying to blackmail me with the notion that donations will dry up now that I'm no longer running the blog in a way that he approves of. (He in all apparent seriousness believes that Scot Goes Pop is now an "anti-Yes blog" run by either Stuart Campbell or the British government.) He might well be right for all I know, so let's find out! Seriously, though, I'm sure you all know me well enough by now to realise that I try to handle these polls responsibly, and that I always ask questions that will be of interest to the whole pro-indy movement.
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I'm relieved that you said that the money would be "set aside specifically" for the next poll.
ReplyDeleteIf you had declared that it would be "ring-fenced" I'd have been worried ...
That thought actually occurred to me. "Ring-fenced" would have meant I'm buying a luxury yacht.
DeleteIndeed - you could always claim that "the money is still available, I have an understanding with the bank manager", and then slip in: "there will be no opinion poll until we have dealt with the effects of Covid-19 pandemic", as you quietly sail off in the sunset.
DeleteI am heartened to read about the paroxysms the skier is having. Oh, what he always believed was his blog has been invaded by the bodysnatchers. And of course Wings just must be behind it, the scary villain who refuses to die, apparently. Lol
ReplyDeleteYou should definitely include Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions, even if it increases the overall cost. Curious to know if there is a "buyer's remorse" effect now.
ReplyDeleteSomething about GRA reform is also relevant. Not worded as an abstract principle, but spelling out the practical consequences like single-sex spaces. Also a question about approve/disapprove of ScotGov funding and supporting Stonewall after the recent scandal(s). I wouldn't even mind if you chose a Campbellian wording here.
Preferably with a Somerset accent.
DeleteJames, if and when you get round to commissioning another opinion poll, you might want to consider the european issue. It is important to know how exactly this is affecting support for indy. I am concerned that the SNP are going to come out with something silly like "independence to rejoin the EU". Sure many folk are keen to return, but over one million scots did vote to leave the EU - many of them former YES voters. So why not leave the EU (re)joining issue aside for an future, independent Scotland to decide at a later date? "Independence to return to the EU" will only provide our unionist opponents an opportunity to spout the usual "checkpoints at Gretna!" nonsense.
ReplyDeleteALBA's approach (apply for EFTA membership) appears to be far more sensible IMO, at least in the short term. This was one of the reasons that I voted for them in May (not the only one, but a biggie nevertheless). Like the issue of the royal family, the EU can wait until we are fully independent.
Maybe something on the effects of Covid-19 lockdown and how it has affected people's perception, expectation of independence would also be interesting and useful. Just a couple of ideas. :)
Have you ever asked if the people of Scotland want its pro-indy MPs to leave the Westminster cesspit for good even before indyref2 has taken place?
ReplyDeleteAnd now Indyposterboy who produced some great campaign material is the latest to announce his withdrawal from active campaigning due to his loss of hope in the current SNP - is there anyone left apart from Wee Ginger Dug?
ReplyDeletePaypal ?
ReplyDeleteHow about a poll on whether people believe the GERS figures?
ReplyDeleteA question asking if people accept that Scotland is bankrupt or not?
A question asking when people had their murrell epiphany?
Good question!
DeleteIndy Poster Boy (Colin Dunne) has now retired from the fray, totally disillusioned.
ReplyDeleteIt would be good if disillusioned bloggers and well-known activists like Indy Poster Boy could get together to issue a joint statement.
Maybe a job for Phantom Power?
Anyone got the contacts to organise that?
Excellent result for England. Time for them to rise now and be a nation again. Johnson should tell the civil service to talk about England as a proud, independent (if it wishes) nation. If they are not that, how can they win the Euros?
ReplyDeleteI expect that Boris Johnson has already ordered a lovely, gleaming white suit generously adorned with blood-red St George's crosses. Whether or not it ever gets worn will depend on the outcome of the next two games. IMO England are a very good team, and the players and coaches seem like a nice bunch of guys. As a neutral, I wish them well.
DeleteAs for the media, politicians and the rest of those pathetic wagon jumpers, however - pass me the paper bag. :)