For Episode 7 of the Scot Goes Popcast, I was joined by Chris McEleny, the Alba Party's lead candidate in the West Scotland electoral region. Before joining Alba, Chris was leader of the SNP group on Inverclyde Council, and has twice been a candidate in elections for depute leader of the SNP.
We discussed a broad range of campaign issues, but in particular I asked him about the penultimate result in the Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, which I can now reveal...
If the pandemic hasn't completely ended by 2022 or 2023, do you think it would be reasonable to go ahead with an independence referendum on the same basis as the current election, with safety measures and social distancing?
Yes 43%
No 44%
With Don't Knows removed -
Yes 49%
No 51%
The virtually even split among the whole sample is startling enough, because there was a slim anti-independence majority in this poll, and you'd expect most No voters to be opposed to holding an indyref at any time, let alone during the pandemic. However, among Yes voters and SNP voters, the results are remarkable...
If the pandemic hasn't completely ended by 2022 or 2023, do you think it would be reasonable to go ahead with an independence referendum on the same basis as the current election, with safety measures and social distancing?
2019 SNP voters only:
Yes 75%
No 16%
2014 pro-independence voters only:
Yes 73%
No 18%
Current pro-independence voters:
Yes 81%
No 10%
The SNP leadership have thus far set themselves against any prospect of a referendum until the crisis is totally resolved - witness Nicola Sturgeon on the leaders' debate tonight talking about a referendum "in due course, in the fullness of time", which as someone pointed out to me is language that is used almost word-for-word as a euphemism for "never" in an episode of Yes Minister. But it appears SNP supporters take a radically different view and can see no reason for an indefinite delay. Which is perfectly understandable, given that we're in the middle of a Scottish Government approved demonstration that a democratic event can be conducted in a safe and orderly manner in spite of the circumstances.
You can listen to the podcast either via the embedded player below, or at the direct link HERE.
Good show!
ReplyDeleteI said it before I think. The SNP are hiding behind Covid 19 like currs. Just another Yoon party without a spine in essence now. Sturgeon must go!!!!!
ReplyDeleteHonestly, whatever one's opinion of the best route to independence, my impression is that Sturgeon is just worried that if an indyref is held soon it may well be lost.
DeleteIt's fine to disagree with that approach, and I actually disagree with it, but there's no need for all this discourse to the effect that she's a unionist who doesn't want indy.
That's where I don't quite buy the Craig Murray view of things, much as I love his writing.
I think a lot of this comes down to people's psychology and the associated political strategy.
Wish everyone could debate and disagree without assuming people are secret unionists.
You can tell unionists; they support a vote for unionists parties. Such as for the constituency vote in e.g. some Glasgow seats the snp hold.
DeleteSadly the current SNP leadership cannot be trusted to deliver independence. That's why returning as many Alba MSPs as possible is essential. Their job will be to keep cutting the long grass.
ReplyDeleteI (reluctantly) asked Alexa to tune in to BBC Radio Scotland and listened to their pre-election summary.
ReplyDeleteThe commentator was ostentatiously pro-Tory taking time to explain how Ross was being bullied by all the other parties and how Tory policy on privatising care of the elderly was actually right.
Went on to say how embarrassing it was to see Salmond make such a poor showing in the election and how he could be expected to come in a bad last to George Galloway and that claims of media bias were all pish. Reminded me of why I campaign for people to stop paying the licence fee.
SHAME ON STU CAMPBELL. – The blackout of Alba and Salmond is the issue Wings should have tackled in this election – Alex could have done a lot better with a bit more focus from Wings over Scotland
Please God, Alex will get a seat tomorrow and leave the BBC eating their hats – and then have a chance to change the policy on Stu’s mono-manic mind
Campbell is advising a vote for unionists to reduce the % for Yes parties, something Salmond would never do.
DeleteAdding Comres (with its heavy Yes downweighting - 54% saying they voted Yes in 2014) and Survation to my PoP sees the SNP share on the constituency rise a little. Currently 49.4%.
ReplyDeleteGreens and Alba remain on 10% and 3% for the list respectively.
A very steady picture as previously noted.
Com Res don't have a history of polling in Holyrood election that I could find to see what their success rate was. Now with the Ipsos-Mori figures now in I would now expect the SNP Constituency vote not to be lower than 45%. It is now down to GOTV.
DeleteJames writes: "But it appears SNP supporters take a radically different view and can see no reason for an indefinite delay [of indyref2]"
ReplyDeleteWhich gives me not a little hope that many SNP supporters will give their List vote [bearing in mind the circumstances of their own voting area] to Alba to reflect their desire for nae mair faffin aboot by the SNP leadership.