You can read my analysis piece in The National about yesterday's two opinion polls HERE.
Friday, April 23, 2021
IndyLive Radio interview
Just a quick note to let you know that I'll be on the Daytime Show on Indylive Radio today, which starts at 11am. The interview was pre-recorded on Tuesday night. They're also speaking to Professor John Curtice and a number of SNP and Green candidates. If you happen to be around, you can listen HERE. I believe the interview will also be uploaded to Soundcloud at some point, so I'll try to post a link to that when it's up.
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No ALBA candidates?
ReplyDeleteThe last few polls released I have found slightly concerning.
ReplyDeleteWhen AS launched ALBA my reaction was torn, on one hand surely its a good thing that those that aren't happy with the SNP have a party they can support and also for people that think the party will further the drive for independence. On the flipside I did worry that the effect of AS returning to frontline politics would be the hardening of soft nos and soft yessers flipping.
All of the pro indy parties have spoke alot about independence over this campaign (probably in part because of ALBAS political launch) so it's disappointing that no appears to have edged into the lead. I am skeptical that it is due to the oppositions election campaigning on indy. Labour have barely mentioned it, the lib dems almost seem an irrelevance and I think it's unanimous that Douglas Ross has not had a good campaign so far. Tbh I actually think the arguments the unionist parties are using against indy should actually be am asset for indy when it's put to any scrutiny.
I have seen from alot of people online that they were now only going to vote for the SNP because of ALBA and them urging there supporters to do so which made me hopeful that we would maybe have seen support for SNP rising in constituencies (perhaps unreasonable given the high starting point) and it would seem that the support is actually on a downward trajectory.
For disclosure I am broadly happy with the SNP leadership and think the strategy has been to court no voters, be as pragmatic as possible, go through the motions almost and control the narrative of why there should be another referendum and then ultimately persuade as many previous no voters that yes is the right choice this time. I sort of felt that ALBA sort of burst on to the scene just as this strategy/pursuit was nearing its endgame (and I think was working).
I know there's plenty of people that don't agree with that strategy or who doubts their even is one and I totally believe its not right to just expect them to shut up and go along with it so purely for the fact it allows people to support the party that represents them most and is pursuing what they want then for that reason alone it has to be a good thing.
I know I'm only speaking about 2 or 3 polls so I'm not trying to reinforce what I already believe and my fingers are crossed we see the opposite in the next polls but I am concerned that the polls could be slightly overestimating SNP support like in 2016 and they could potentially end up losing seats and the pro indy parties have a net loss compared to 2016 which would set a terrible narrative. Sadly it seems in politics the most important things are personalities and what the narrative is.
The Sav/Res poll had 11 pages of questions and 574 pages of data set analysis. Me thinks there has been a lot of creative manipulation of the results.
DeleteAlso as JK has said there is usually a dip in the YES % in the middle of an election. The absolute imperative is to get a majority pro indy MSP's on 6th May
Ally
Savanna Comres poll has others on 8% ,and 8 seats on the list?
ReplyDeleteWhat is going on with this poll?
george galloway is going to take 7% of the list vote across Scotland by standing in one constituency.
DeleteSee, there's a perfectly sensible explanation for everything.
The treatment of Alba and Alex Salmond is what real voter suppression looks like. Not requiring ID and only giving people 3 weeks to vote before election day.
Unsurprisingly, not a word about #cummingsgate on 'Wings over I love England and prefer it to Scotland.com'.
ReplyDeleteJust 'people with medical sex dysphoria want to destroy all women after raping them in the swimming pool loos, watched by a cackling Sturgeon and Harvie'.
Cos, you know, #wheeshtfortheunion
I note he's endorsed the Alba manifesto, which is like handing someone the wrong grail to drink from in an Indiana jones movie.
I have to say, your constant downplaying of the very real risks to women entailed in proposed legal changes is really disturbing. I notice people on shaky ethical and argumentative ground tend to grossly misrepresent views they dislike and then take great pleasure in rubbishing them.
DeleteWhen Campbell started going off on one about all of this, I thought he'd lost the plot.
DeleteThen I noticed the thoroughly unpleasant Twitter types pushing extreme gender id ideology.
For a while, this just confirmed what I had originally thought about Campbell. These posters were so clearly 'troubled', I couldn't imagine they'd be taken seriously by anyone, let alone define a social debate.
But then, the grandees of the Greens and SNP started advocating in favour of their dangerous, reality bending lunacy, without a hint of critical thinking, and actively cancelling the genuine and reasonable concerns of level headed and reasonable voices.
This worries me enormously. And I know that's also true of many others. Cancel culture of any kind is an affront to civilised society. Cancel culture which insists that left is right, that calling for appropriate safeguards is socially conservative, and that men can be women because feelz is end-times material.
And you're making light of it? Not a good look.
Sorry, but I don't see a self-centred teenager with some minor anger issues who dresses outwith the conservative norms preferred by right-wingers from the south of England such as Campbell as a grave and immediate threat to the Scottish nation. The video reminds me of Kevin and Perry 'It's so unfair I hate you!'.
Deletehttps://wingsoverscotland.com/nobody-said-it-was-easy/
This is pure hard right dog whistle approach to this issue. It's like finding someone who's an erse who happens to be jewish and saying 'This is what jewish people are like and they're a threat to the country'.
Personally, I fully support the preservation of sex based rights for both sexes. I'm voting for Christine Grahame and Joan McAlpine for example, even though Wings has tried get me not to.
I personally think maybe gammons should stop mansplaining to women what women's concerns should be. The SNP are, after all, the most popular party among women voters by a country mile. My wife and daughter don't need some angry tory from Somerset telling them what's best for them.
Men should maybe focus on how the GRA affects them and their sex based rights. After all, surely if willies in the ladies are a concern, boobs in the gents is a worry too? Or maybe it's just there's more scope for right wing dog whistling in the former case.
Wings isn't remotely concerned about this issue and isn't interested in measured debate on a complex and sensitive issue around people with sex dysphoria. He's just trying to find a stick to beat the SNP and its female leader with with.
If he cared about Scotland, he'd be writing articles about the real dangers to Scotland which come from the Tories in the South of England. Like him.
But hey, #wheeshtfortheunion