So I've been catching up with the news that the Airdrie and Shotts by-election for the newly vacant Westminster seat will apparently take place the week after the Holyrood election because of safety concerns. This is potentially the nightmare scenario. The reason this needless by-election is happening at all is of course student politics on the SNP's NEC, designed to scupper Joanna Cherry's hopes of switching to the Scottish Parliament by creating an artificial rule that would have required her to prematurely abandon her Westminster seat and trigger a by-election. Ms Cherry was successfully deterred, but the rule applied to other MPs too, and here we are, staring down the barrel of losing one of the seats that was so hard-won in the 2019 general election. It might not have been so bad if the vote had taken place on the same day as the Holyrood election, because it wouldn't have been a by-election in any real sense - it would have been subsumed into the national election, probably with very similar trends. But a week later the dynamics will be totally different. Firstly the turnout will be much lower, and in a North Lanarkshire seat there's a fair chance that'll favour Labour. And secondly momentum will play a part. If the SNP perform more poorly than expected in the Holyrood election, their supporters will be demotivated a week later, which could magnify any swing against them.
If the SNP have pointlessly thrown a seat away and allowed Scottish Labour back into the game at Westminster, some individuals may want to take a long hard look at themselves.
Those individuals won't, unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteApart from to admire their reflections, of course
DeleteIf the SNP do well in Holyrood the week before, I can't see a 14% lead being overturned.
ReplyDeleteIt's not like it would be a mid-term by election when the honeymoon period is over.
Still, would have been better on the same day.
Britain Elects
ReplyDelete@BritainElects
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2h
Almond & Earn (Perth & Kinross) result:
CON: 51.2% (-8.4)
SNP: 37.3% (+7.7)
LDEM: 7.5% (+1.9)
LAB: 4.0% (+4.0)
That represents an eight point gain for the SNP and an eight point loss for the Conservatives from the last vote in that ward. Well done SNP. That kind of swing on May 6 will wipe out the Tories in all their constituency seats.
DeleteI’m sure that Nicola will view it as acceptable collateral damage.
ReplyDeleteDo people think Douglas Ross should give up his Westminster seat if he is elected as an MSP?
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see him give it up before being allowed to stand as an MSP myself.
DeleteIt's the Holyrood election which matters most. If a pro-indy majority is the result Airdrie/Shotts will be a minor detail.
ReplyDeleteIf it's a pro-indy majority the SNP will have zero excuse to hesitate further in the fight for independence. We must all make sure to put maximum pressure on the pro-indy parties to deliver.
Alba!
ReplyDeleteLove the name. Not so sure about the pronunciation!
Is Salmond about the split the vote and kill the dream?
ReplyDeleteTalking of student politics the Splitter compulsion is never far away. Popular Front of Judea strikes again.
Well, if anyone can bring the sufficient numbers of voters over on the list, it's him. Even now.
DeleteIs he aiming list only or is this a more comprehensive swipe at Nicola? If list only then OK this could actually work. I can't see the Toons being happy if takes 20 list seats and is the opposition party.
DeleteWeird times
What's the difference between ISP, AfI and TAP? They all seem to be offering 'a left of centre social democratic independent Scotland'. Basically the SNP manifesto with a selected policy they don't like removed. 'Vote the SNP-GRA Party!' The Greens by contrast are their own party with their own ideas.
DeleteThe Alba Party looks a wee bit too much like 'the Alex Salmond Show', sorry 'Party' for me, I'm disappointed to find myself saying. Why start it now? Why not build up a proper alternative after he was cleared last March? Seems a bit like an attempt to steal the limelight rather than having the nation's future at heart.
I'm South of Scotland anyway where I might as well use my list ballot as bog paper unless I vote SNP.
List only. Fortunately! Though, yes, I'd rather they didn't run in South of Scotland due to the SNP seat there.
DeleteSalmond's currently talking about independence negotiations with Westminster let alone Plan B. Things are changing gear as we speak!
Look to the east on the fifth day, Salm has risen from the dead, a list only party formed 6 weeks before the election, what could go wrong?
ReplyDeleteHe's just thrown a hand grenade into Scottish politics, 50 polls in favour of Yes and the SNP, up in the air, wtf.
His press conference is a bit chaotic on Youtube. However this might actually help in the long run of things. It gives more publicity for the SNP. Gaels groaning everywhere. He should learn to pronounce the name properly, it is not Alba as you read it in English but Alapa.
DeleteI suspect the polling won't change at all. He's got a loyal following, but as James has noted previously, it's borderline in terms of being able to get a seat and that's just probably for him standing alone. If people know he's standing in their region - which they will from the news - he might get in himself. However, I can't it happening elsewhere - people have no idea who they'd be electing.
DeleteThe public are very aware from UK elections that voting for minnow parties helps the opposition. It's why these don't get anywhere, certainly not out of the blue, and folk end up voting for one of the larger parties. The Greens have managed to start to build up support but it's taken time and they are clearly not a one man vanity party which Alba looks a bit like.
True. Here in Lothian, the Greens are still probably the right choice, and I may well vote for them yet again. (Have done since 1999.) But Edinburgh is not Scotland as a whole.
DeleteWhich region is Salmond standing in? The presser's live feed is a bit chaotic.
Oh god, please tell me he's not selling the we can 'game the PR system' myth.
ReplyDeleteWe don't need a supermajority, just majority.
I will never vote for a party that tries to sell this lie to me.
Your list vote is for the party you want in government. It is your most important vote and forms the basis for the allocation of all seats in parliament. If you want Salmond as FM, then by all means vote Abla, but you cannot game PR.
We'll see about that very soon!
DeleteWhy do you lie?
Delete1999 Scottish parliament elections, was the government decided by the list or by FTPT seats.
2003 Scottish Parliament elections was the Government decided by the List or buy FPTP?
2007 An exception where the List SNP MSPs outdid labour's FPTP, and by 1 seat.
2011 The Government decided by FPTP seats.
2016 The Government decided by FPTP seats.
If every single SNP voter had switched the the Greens in 2016 there would be at least 30 of the colourful wee blighters in Parliament.
A supermajority gives the ability to call an election at any time. An election where a majority means independence for instance.
DeleteDo you know anything about politics? Your handlers should be ashamed for wasting their share of the stolen £600,000 on you.
Aye. I vote Green for that as much as their environmentalism.
DeleteBut getting enough voters on board is the hard part.
Can Salmond? Maybe. All eyes on the polls now!