Just a quick note to let you know that I've written some analysis for The National of the YouGov poll showing Yes support soaring to a record-breaking 53%. You can read it HERE.
Incidentally, just to address the complaint Peter A Bell has left in The National's comment section: no, support for indy has not "soared from 54% to 53%". That's an apples-and-oranges comparison between a Panelbase poll and a YouGov poll. The last comparable YouGov poll had Yes on 51%, so it's a two-point increase.
You can feel the mood changing.
ReplyDeleteMuch less opposition to Independence compared to a generation ago in 2014.
UK ministers aplenty paying their love bombing visits.
Is this where England's oil comes from? Can I shoot a grouse?
It's nice here,, I'm coming back for a holiday! I might need a native guide though. Where's that rotter fellow Ross when you need him!
This feels like a turning point. Once pro-independence becomes the assumed default view, it will become incumbent on the anti-independence side to justify their view—something that they haven't had to do much of thus far. The pro-indy people will also need to keep making their case since they are still advocating for a change from the status quo, but they have a lot of experience doing that, and the tenor of the conversation will have to change (hard as the media may try to maintain its current tone) once it's clear that they're speaking for the majority. Simply sneering and uncritically repeating unionist claims won't win people back.
ReplyDeleteJames have you thought about making the SgP version of the Wee Blue Book? I feel like you know who would rather kick trans folk, Nicola and the SNP than campaign for Indy any more
DeletePeter A Bell?
ReplyDeleteComplaining?
Surely not.
Less snark please - we are all on the same side.
DeleteOur best shot is approaching - things are moving.
ReplyDeleteFor example our local YES group is starting to set up, properly distanced, public events co-ordinated with the group 'next door'. We are about to launch a new, locally aimed Indy blog and get into the 'Believe in Scotland' network.
Nothing remarkable but if equivalent stuff happens here there and everywhere then momentum will build towards 60%.
The big question- will Cummings allow little Bobo to let us have an election next May or will it be disallowed as a Covid risk ??
there is only a 5% swing available to no or yes there is no chance of yes getting near 60% for that reason likewise no cant get more than 55%
DeleteTargets should always be a wee bit high.
Delete"ringobrodgarAugust 13, 2020 at 11:14 AM
Deletethere is only a 5% swing available to no or yes there is no chance of yes getting near 60% for that reason likewise no cant get more than 55%"
A year ago I might have agreed with this but not now. Yes is now consistently around the 54% mark, and that's with the bedlam of a No Deal Brexit mid-pandemic yet to come.
Will we get over 60% in the next year? I doubt it. But we can certainly get near.
60% isn't the magical figure anyway. 57% is, in my opinion. When the split is consistently 57-43 or better then we're in a completely new realm of possibility.
Or will Douglas Ross overrule Cummings in pursuit of becoming First Minister of Scotland next May?
ReplyDeletePolitics can sometimes make ye laugh!
As top of the Tory list in the NE, Ross is a shoe-in as MSP.
Never forget that it was the LibDems and Labour that thought up this voting system for Holyrood,resulting in the dross on the opposition benches today.
I really enjoy reading your blog its very informative, iv nvr posted before but read avidly but feel i can post now that all the nobsense stuff has gone . Thanks james
ReplyDeleteSomebody should tell Peter Bell that when the Berlin Wall started to fall nobody stepped up to put it back together again.
ReplyDeleteA pro-YES gap of 6 to 8% is causing panic in London. So it should.
When those who thought the Union was unsinkable start to see the possibilities of independence and move to YES nothing London does will stop independence.
In Peter's World "every silver lining has a cloud". "when one door shuts, another slams in your face"
ReplyDeleteWe have dozens of "generals" on every blog now. Unfortunately most seem to be focused on negative campaigning.
We only need 50%+1 on the day. No country has ever went back to London Rule.
Peter is perfectly able to defend himself, but I want to point out that we don't want a 'Peoples Front of Judea' versus a 'Judean Peoples Front' situation to build up. As long as people have the same goal, it is counter productive at this point to promote divisive sniping. Please stop it.
DeleteThe irony of defending Mr Bell with a plea to stop "divisive sniping" will be lost on few.
DeleteMichael, have you actually ever read Mr Bell's stuff when he "goes off on one"?? He is the no 2 "snark" behind Stu Campbell when it comes to being an unpleasant twat.
DeleteHave you tried going on to Mr Bell's blog to make the same plea? I suspect that his response will be markedly more snarky than James.
Refreshing to see Prof, m’lud John Curtice see and state so clearly what many in the movement refuse to countenance:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thenational.scot/news/18647081.independence-plan-b-take-pressure-off-fm-john-curtice-says/
By all means have a Plan B. But if you’re sharing it in public, it’s not a Plan B. The political moment must come first.
Aye, only a prize idiot (or a unionist) would demand the SNP share their plan B with everyone.
DeleteWell said Skier! REPEAT REPEAT
DeleteREPEAT Tam Dalyell style.
could we have got another percentage point with 16 17 year olds?
ReplyDeleteQuite possibly - James?
DeleteThe poll included 16 17 year olds
DeleteYou can find all the details in this PDF. The numbers for the 16-24 age group are amazing
Deletehttps://docs.cdn.yougov.com/l0arqcm4ea/TimesResults_200810_ScotlandV2_W.pdf
Are we to take it that the figures tagged "18 - 24" are, in fact, "16 - 24"? The note at the side says "16+", but the figures actually given run from "18 - 24".
DeleteApologies Bob you are right it is 18-24
DeleteJames can you confirm that 4% is an unusually wide gap between SNP vote and Independence support in a poll. Might this indicate an increasing perception that unionists may safely vote SNP with no fear of that leading to Independence?
ReplyDeleteI am aware that polls have always shown some SNP voters who would vote No and some other voters, especially Labour, who would vote Yes. But in general the net effect has been the SNP vote number very close to the Yes vote number. I am asking if 4% is an unusually wide gap, in the full knoweldge the two sets of people are not identical.
The datasets from the poll shows that of those who intent to vote SNP and 2019 SNP voters, 93% would vote yes and 7% would vote no
DeleteA 4% gap between SNP support and independence is within the margin of polling error.
DeleteBoth figures are hugely impressive.
The question that London will be asking is "What support will there be when the Scots actually begin to campaign for their freedom?"
Also "How do we stop them"
Will Rennie and Leonard have to resign too, for failing to protect the precious Union.
For the PERFECT example of hypocrisy, compare the two links below:-
ReplyDeleteAt the time when the first one was written (Aug 2015), polls showed support for independence sitting at 53% - just as it is now, so nothing has changed - except the Bathman....
https://wingsoverscotland.com/ams-for-lazy-people/
https://wingsoverscotland.com/how-to-waste-your-vote/
Aye. Top up seats *topping up* parties who got a lot of votes but won bugger all on the first round? Shocker. Proportional representation is right there in the name!
DeleteImagine the alternate scenario where blue Tories and red Tories got their act together, and one of them ran exclusively on the list. Vote red *and* blue, Better Together! Don’t say we wouldn’t be furious at them for cheating the system. It’s obvious abuse when you’re running shadow parties.
The SNP is going to win the coming Holyrood election big time, scoring a majority all by themselves, no gaming required, or even Greens for that matter. The polls are clear and the momentum is with us. The fundies and the Nicola sceptics will be clutching their pearls and worrying, loudly and incessantly, what that spells for Scottish independence. They’ll do that anyway. They’ve been in denial since we all lost in 2014. That No vote is what set us on the long road. You don’t get to indy without getting the majority of Scots (not just Yessers!) aboard for the ride. They’re coming now, but only now.
I’ll point out that I’m a Green voter myself. (Represented here in Edinburgh ever since the first parliament in 1999!) So I’m absolutely in favour of other indy parties, with policy platforms and manifestos of their own.
DeleteIf this supposed new party were to have it’s own position on all the major issues, I’d wish them well. The independence movement is broader than the SNP. But the way Stu etc. always lay it out is no, no no no! No policies on anything at all besides that weird obsession about public toilet use and cajoling Nicola Sturgeon to stop getting on with the day job and get back to independence.
Doesn’t sound helpful at all. In fact, the party it reminds me of is Nigel Farage’s lot at the EU parliament, where they did bugger all of any use to anyone besides fill their boots and showboat for the cameras. That’s the last thing our cause needs in our own parliament.
Another positive development..... Foreign nationals will have the vote in Scotland and Wales from now. That includes my wife.... A hard Yes for Scotland!!
ReplyDeleteIs that for all elections now? That's great news
DeleteI am no expert Mike - just read the website and it says for all Scottish elections (and Weslh one). I am not sure about an independence referendum but I think the same electoral rules as the Scottish Parliament apply.... Would the real James Kelly please confirm...?
DeleteI think that is for all elections held in Scotland except Westminster elections.
ReplyDeleteYes, England denies minority groups in Scotland the right to vote in 'British' elections affecting Scotland due to straightforward racism.
Delete