Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll: Sensation as Scottish voters, by a 3-1 margin, say that the Scottish Government's handling of the pandemic makes them "more confident" that Scotland will be well-governed as an independent country, and that the UK government's response to the crisis makes them "less convinced" that Scotland is safer as part of the UK

The primary responsibility of any government is to keep its citizens safe.  One of the reasons the Dominic Cummings scandal was so damaging for the UK government is that it was blindingly obvious that ministers were sacrificing public safety to protect the power of one man.  If the lockdown legislation had to be hastily 'reinterpreted' to make what Cummings did OK, they had absolutely no problem with that, even if they knew a laxer regime would cost lives.

It's one thing to put the public at risk because of policy misjudgements, but to do it intentionally and with so little subtlety...well, that's a whole different ball-game.  This poses a particular problem for those who want Scotland to remain part of the UK, because one of the main arguments against independence has always been that Scotland is "safer" with London rule.  You don't want to take any chances with your livelihoods, your pensions, etc, etc.  But if people start to feel that Westminster is actually putting them at direct risk, where else is there for the anti-indy campaign to go?  I decided to use the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll to find out how severe the damage is.

Does the handling of the coronavirus crisis by Boris Johnson and the UK Government make you more convinced or less convinced that Scotland is safer if it remains part of the UK?

More convinced: 20%
Less convinced: 59%

That's an ouch with a capital OUCH.  And no-one should be under any illusions that it's only people who already believe in independence who are reflexively saying they are less convinced.  Let's look, for example, at the figures for those who actually voted No in 2014...

2014 No voters:

More convinced: 29%
Less convinced: 41%

Or how about people who voted Labour in the 2019 general election?

2019 Labour voters:

More convinced: 18%
Less convinced: 63%

Or people who wanted Britain to leave the European Union?

2016 Leave voters:

More convinced: 33%
Less convinced: 43%

Of course none of this would matter very much if there was a similar lack of confidence in Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government.  If you think all governments are as bad as each other, you're not going to bother with a major constitutional change.  So I also used the poll to ask a very similar question about the Scottish Government.  The results are nothing short of breathtaking - the polar opposite of the verdict on the UK government.

Does the handling of the coronavirus crisis by Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government make you feel more confident or less confident that Scotland will be well-governed if it becomes an independent country?

More confident: 59%
Less confident: 22%

Once again, you might be surprised by some of the groups who say they are more confident about the good governance of an independent Scotland.  Take, for example, people who were born in England...

English-born voters resident in Scotland:

More confident: 43%
Less confident: 26%

Or No voters from 2014...

2014 No voters:

More confident: 39%
Less confident: 36%

Incidentally, even 25% of people who say they would vote No in a new referendum are more confident.  Last but not least, let's take a look at people who voted Labour in December, and who Richard Leonard probably thinks are the last people who would have any "appetite" for independence...

2019 Labour voters: 

More confident: 56%
Less confident: 26%

So you're probably starting to see why I said yesterday that I strongly suspected that the 2% boost in the headline Yes vote, relatively modest though it may be, is a genuine increase and not a quirk caused by normal sampling variation - and also why I think there's scope for further progress.

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There are several more questions to come from the poll, so follow me on Twitter if you'd like to stay updated. You can also read my piece in The National about the headline independence results.