Based on experience in the last few elections, we can say a few things about the upcoming exit poll, which will be theatrically announced by the broadcasters at the stroke of 10pm. It's likely to be highly accurate, it's likely to contain some sort of surprise, and there's a 50% chance we won't like that surprise. If the worst comes to the worst and the projected number of seats for the SNP is a lot lower than we're expecting, the only slight consolation is that the margin of error may effectively be higher in Scotland due to the large number of ultra-marginal seats. Even an exceptionally accurate exit poll can't be expected to correctly call races that are within 1% or 2%.
While we're waiting for the moment of torture, just a quick punt for my last three constituency previews in The National - Perth and North Perthshire, Glasgow South-West and Glasgow North-West. I've now covered all 59 constituencies - it's been an epic undertaking, so I hope you've found them interesting and useful. But actually, come to think of it, rather than reading the last batch I'd prefer you to ring round your family and friends and make sure they've all voted SNP, or will do by 10pm. Let's not allow this one to slip through our fingers.
40-anything seats for the SNP is good to excellent. 30-anything seats for the SNP is poor to catastrophic.
ReplyDeleteLet's not do the unionists' work for them by setting expectations too high. 20-something was within the 95% confidence limits of the YouGov MRP (although admittedly so was 50-something).
DeleteYou're not sounding very confident there James ?
DeleteIt means no more or no less than what it says - there was a very high level of uncertainty in the MRP. The upper level was 55 seats, and I think the lower level was about 24.
DeleteMy hunch it's been a good day for SNP but from bitter experience I know not to raise my hopes.
DeleteAgree 40 seats or above is a good result 45 seats is a very good result.Here's hoping
ReplyDeleteThink it could be anywhere from 35 to 45 seats.
DeleteSo many combinations to prove punters wrong and do the work of the bookies. (I speak from experience.)
Oh James you've made me even more nervous than already am. I can say for certain there was no exit pollster outside my polling station when I voted or my Wife and Son and we all voted at different times. I live in a rural/urban constituency how on earth can they predict a whole constituency when its so diverse ?
ReplyDeleteThe Exit Poll is conducted at selective polling stations at each election usually the same ones so they can see the change in support for each of the parties.
DeleteAnything that is less than as many seats as the media make up will be a disaster for the SNP anyway you look at it, 50 they were hoping for more disappointing, 45 the SNP will be seriously worried about this lack of support 40 a disaster for the SNP as it leaves their ambitions for Independence in tatters, what now for Sturgeon will she resign and they'll have Ruth Davidson who's never won an election to tell us all why she should go and go now
ReplyDeleteMaybe they'll get the Arsehole from Bath who's been Tweeting constantly every day against the SNP to make a comment about his Wingless idea of being a politician like Swinson leading a campaign from another country
My daughter was "exit polled" in Forres , Moray. She had voted SNP.
ReplyDeleteWord is that turnout is very high.
ReplyDeleteIf Boris gets an overall majority and the Nat sis do not get more than 50% of the popular vote in Scotland the Nat sis will have no legitimacy to call for another referendum which they could lose. It is pissin of rain just now so most poor Nat sis will be huddling up at home now watching soaps.
ReplyDeleteAnd you're at home posting crap on here as usual.
DeleteYour next post will be about political parties in the UK getting more than 50% of the vote.
DeleteBut you might find it best not to put Al Johnson and legitimacy in the same sentence. At least not in the next 90 minutes.
I voted Labour for a Labour government not Johnson or the Scottish Nat si Yellow Tories. The only reason we have this election is because the fascists would not respect the legitimate EU referendum result. We could end up with the Tories for another decade because of you idiots.
DeleteLabour would not respect the EU referendum result. The only major party campaigning to do so were the Tories. Another fail.
DeleteLabour did not respect the referendum result although they said they would. However every political party that participates in a referendum should respect the result.
DeleteWe had a referendum on European membership in 1975,so by your logic there shouldn't have been another vote in 2016.
Deletereflecting only on the near closing of the polling places, I note that over the last two weeks or so of this horror show, the BBC have taken to showing NS as 'one of the UK party leaders'
ReplyDeleteeven now the shortbread front page on the mobile app is a picture of JC/BJ/NS/JS.
I'm not sure what that means but it is interesting
People in mental institutions get respect it doesn't mean anybody should do what they say
ReplyDeleteEvery population of every country has the same percentage of idiots,10%, that means that England has more idiots than Scotland has total population, that's what outvotes us every time, which takes us back to our percentage of idiots that are much less but every bit as stupid
And here you are every day proving it
They are not called mental institutions anymore although idiots are endemic in the Scottish Nat si party. Independence in the EU for instance as an example.
DeleteTen minutes left to drag the Nat sis oot the pub tae vote. Putting an x oan a beer mat disnae count jockos.
ReplyDeleteJeez I hope that exit poll is correct! 55 seats for SNP!
ReplyDeleteMy jaw just hit the floor. Swindon predicted to lose her seat too, lol.
DeleteSwinson
DeleteSNP Landslide is word from hear.
ReplyDeleteFrom the Guardian
ReplyDeleteExit poll
And here are the full exit poll results.
Conservatives: 368
Labour: 191
SNP: 55
Liberal Democrats: 13
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1
Brexit party: 0
Others: 22
GWC cat got your tong?
ReplyDeleteTongue
ReplyDeleteSo SNP did better than I thought they would. Shame Moray voted for a Fascist. Take away the postal vote and they don't win. The Fascists that is.
ReplyDelete