Friday, September 13, 2019

SNP break through 50% barrier in sparkling subsample from YouGov

The Scottish subsample in the latest GB-wide YouGov poll is worthy of note, because it's the first time that I can remember for a very long time that the SNP have been above 50% in a YouGov subsample.

SNP 52%, Conservatives 19%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Labour 8%, Brexit Party 7%, Greens 3%

Of course it's extremely unlikely that the SNP are really on 52%.  Assuming that YouGov still structure their Scottish subsamples correctly, the margin of error would be in the region of 8%, so the true vote share for the SNP could easily be something like 44% - a much more plausible figure.  But nevertheless the SNP wouldn't be getting results like this, even as a freakish one-off, unless their vote was holding up exceptionally well.  They'll take particular heart from the underwhelming showing for the Lib Dems and the disastrous showing for Labour.  There's no scenario in which the wheels can truly come off for the SNP (by which I mean that they would do worse than 2017 and fail to take a majority of Scottish seats) without there being a pro-Labour swing.  As things stand, it looks like Labour are going to have to make up huge ground over the course of the campaign just to get anywhere close to being back to where they were two years ago.  Nothing is impossible, but it seems pretty unlikely that the SNP will be losing any seats to Labour this time.  Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are polling lower in Scotland than in any other part of GB, in spite of having a shiny new Scottish leader.

*  *  *

You may have seen the comments by Tory rebel Oliver Letwin suggesting that there is now a majority in the Commons for holding a second EU referendum before the general election, which he thinks could be delayed until next year.  I'd suggest this should be taken with a pinch of salt, because we've heard confident claims many times in the past about the inevitability of a second referendum, but whenever it's been put to the test parliament has voted against the idea.  One major obstacle is surely that the Labour leadership want any referendum to take place after the election.

But let's suppose for the sake of argument that Letwin is right and that a Referendum Bill is passed in this current parliament.  What does Boris Johnson do then?  He can't strike legislation down by decree, but by the same token it would be unthinkable for him to allow the 31st October deadline to pass and a second referendum to take place on his watch.  That would be a humiliation that would surely finish him as leader of the Tory party.  Which leads me to an inescapable conclusion: he would preempt matters by submitting his resignation as Prime Minister.

And then what?  One of the stupid things about the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is that the resignation of a Prime Minister or government does not in itself set in train the 14-day deadline by which parliament will be dissolved unless an alternative government can win a confidence vote.  A dissolution can only occur if MPs vote to bring it about by one of two specific mechanisms.  If they choose not to do that, the current parliament continues and there has to be some sort of government.  By convention, the Queen is supposed to appoint a Prime Minister who can command a majority in the Commons, but even if no such person exists, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act would effectively force her to appoint somebody anyway - she wouldn't be able to do the sensible thing and simply dissolve parliament with a view to finding a PM with a clear mandate.  If the Tory leadership have vacated the pitch, and if the Labour leadership continue to show no interest in Jo Swinson's ideas for a compromise PM, the Queen would presumably have to appoint the available person who is closer than any other to enjoying the confidence of the Commons, and that person would be Jeremy Corbyn.

So that might well be the last-ditch plan to overturn any Referendum Act that is passed.  Boris Johnson resigns, allows Jeremy Corbyn to become PM for a few days, and then seeks to bring him down by simple majority in a confidence vote - which would start the clock ticking for a general election under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act.  The Tories would then stand on a platform of scrapping plans for a second referendum.

99 comments:

  1. What's the chances of Labour finding candidates to fill all seats for the GE. The Times saying they are struggling with recruitment. Don't we need them in place to split the unionist vote

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    1. From the above, you can see where the disillusioned Labour vote is going.

      Labour's problem is they have been trying to be a hardcore unionist party competing with the extreme British nationalist right when their (post 2014) remaining voters are pro-indy to soft no / devo max, centre to left, Scotland in the EU backers.

      Lib Dems have already hoovered up the remainer softer Tories with smiles, while Lab is losing to the SNP. No labour candidate? Vote SNP again like you did in 2015!

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  2. This seems like its likely a stupid question, but why not have a 2nd EUref at the same time as the General Election? That doesn't sound that hard. Its not like people need time to think about whether they are for or against Brexit.

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    1. In Scotland, it could be a proxy iref. If Scotland voted Remain and the rUK votes to leave in some way (e.g. with the deal on the table), Scotland goes independent.

      Obviously this would not detract from the existing Holyrood mandate to hold an iref if deemed necessary.

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  3. I find it interesting that its taken as a given that Boris can't take a simple act of democracy. Boris is going into this election viewed as a person who can not be trusted AND who has attacked the concept of democracy. Boris won't quite get the votes that are predicted, because that combo is likely to mean that the middle ground voters won't vote for him and the people who aren't zealots behind him will vote in lower numbers. Meanwhile, Corbyn hasn't even taken his turn at bat, because his message always gains during the campaign. Boris pulls up lame in the stretch, while the charging Corbyn hits the line at full stride. Then SNP makes takes their new seats and they play letss make a deal.

    That Fixed Term Parli Act is truly a disaster. The problem is that the broke the mainspring of parliamentary democracy, in that the people acting as the executive should always have a majority in the parliament. Cameron's act broke that connection, or at least bent it to the point where now the whole thing has stopped working. Hope they don't close the borders before a Swiss watchmaker can arrive to fix it.

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  4. If the greatest supreme court on the planet lets him off, the message will be that English law is superior, and cancelling democracy for political gain is fine in greater Englandshire.

    If the Court upholds the court of session view, it will suddenly be a very Scottish court, showing the equality of union of union, but proving the current PM is a budding dictator. In Scotland. In England, the sweaty sock scum will be scuppering the 'greatest country on earth' England's independence!

    Either way, this is a Yes vote generating machine, both north and south of the border.

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    1. I don't know if it is true, but , I read somewhere, that when the Supreme Court meets to adjudicate on the Cherry Case from the Court of Session, they will do so under Scots Law. This is because, Ms Cherry and her group won their case under Scots Law, and, the Act of Union guarantees equal status to English and Scots Law. This will meant he Scottish judges on the Supreme Court panel will have greater influence. If this is indeed the case, it will be very-interesting indeed.

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    2. Sure, but Andy Murray is British when it suits.

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    3. Yes indeed Scottish Skier, but I believe in this instance there is no such thing as British Law - but I'm no legal expert. I do agree with your earlier comment that whatever the outcome this is a win-win situation for Independence.

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    4. The 'UK' supreme court can only be 'Scottish' if that somehow reflects badly on Scotland, and/or is a problem for England/the UK.

      The legal reality is irrelevant.

      Distinctly Scottish things are never good for/useful to Scotland or the UK. You should know this by now.

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    5. It is theoretically possible for the Supreme Court to deliver two different judgements, one under Scots Law and the other under English Law. In which case, the court would then have to decide which prevailed, and prudence would surely require that they choose the one most protective of Parliament, presumably the Scots one.

      However, on past behaviour, the court is far more likely to settle on the pusillanimous English "stay out of politics" one.

      This is the "Supreme Court", after all.

      Errm...

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    6. This is what I understood. If a UK-wide action is illegal in at least one of the UK's legal jurisdictions, then it's illegal for the UK government to do it.

      So, it could be judged fine in England, but the supreme court sitting under Scots law judges it illegal.

      Which would be one way to accelerate the breakup of the UK.

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    7. It's almost like that's part of the reasoning from the SNP taking this approach!

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  5. There seems to be a flaw in your argument re the situation with a 2nd EURef, James. Although I'm highly sceptical myself of the chances of it ever happening, if a majority were to develop in the Commons for having another vote (which is the only way of definitively resolving the current mess, after all), the same majority would also be available to sustain the consequent alternative government through a confidence vote after the resignation of Boris. This "alt-gov" need only last long enough to implement the plebiscite, so it need have no other policy to cause dissent among its supporting MPs.

    Whether such a coherent majority of MPs will actually emerge in the first place is another question entirely, of course.

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    1. "the same majority would also be available to sustain the consequent alternative government"

      On the face of it, that's not the case. Swinson and some of the Tory rebels say they would never facilitate a Corbyn-led government. In the scenario I suggested, Johnson and the Tories would be putting that to the test.

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  6. So what if the SNP won all 59 Scottish seats out of 650 UK seats? Nice as it is for the SNP, it achieves NOTHING. In 2015, winning 56 out of 59 MP seats in Scotland achieved NOTHING for Scotland.

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    1. True, on the face of it. The built-in democratic deficit of the Union. But even a substantial resurgence to 50+ MPs absolutely trashes all the previous BritNat gaslighting about their "win" in 2017.

      A substantive win for the SNP as anticipated will demonstrate to everyone - friend, foe or neutral alike - the continuing utter predominance of the SNP and the increasing decay of Unionism. So although it's ultimately a distraction, in this case it's one with a very sharp cutting edge.

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    2. Winning 56 out of 59 in 2015 was just too soon after Indyref1.
      Many thought it was unrepeatable but polls prove it can be repeated and the difference this time is that the UK state is crumbling around us.
      Scotland's GDP is 99% of the UK's and we have a Scottish parliament which balances the books every year.
      This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Let's do this.

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  7. Well, support for indy in Wales now greater than it was in Scotland 2012.

    Only a minority backing the union.

    https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2019-09-13/more-than-a-third-support-welsh-independence-if-it-meant-staying-in-the-eu/

    48% Wales should not be independent from the UK to remain an EU member
    33% Wales should be independent from the UK to remain an EU membe

    That's 41% ex DK.

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    1. 41% Yes to Welsh indy in the EU that is.

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    2. Classic unionist:

      Neil Hamilton, AM for Mid & West Wales and Leader of UKIP Wales said, “Welsh Independence is a dangerous fantasy dreamt up by Plaid. It would only make Wales even poorer. ”

      Than it is as part of the UK....

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    3. Is this the guy?

      "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neil_Hamilton_(politician)"

      It seems bizarre that he is still around.

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  8. So, a quick poll round-up
    51% Yes to Scottish indy the morn, even if the UK is still in the EU
    51% Yes to Irish reunification the morn, even if the UK is still in the EU
    41% for Welsh indy in the EU if brexit goes ahead.

    And probably...

    52% for English indy if Scotland/N. Ireland block brexit for another few months

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    1. Scottish Skier
      >So, a quick poll round-up
      >51% Yes to Scottish indy the morn, even if the UK is still in the EU
      >51% Yes to Irish reunification the morn, even if the UK is still in the EU
      >41% for Welsh indy in the EU if brexit goes ahead.

      >And probably...

      >52% for English indy if Scotland/N. Ireland block brexit for another few months

      It's not impossible now to picture Scottish, Welsh and English people marching together through London calling for the dissolution of the Union.

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  9. I see that Boris is back in Northern England trying to win over the towns that the Conservatives decimated in the 80's.

    Therein lies the problem, the Conservatives are going to loose seats in Scotland to the SN and remain areas in England to the Lib Dems. So he is left with the leave voting areas in the Midlands and North England. Except those hate the conservatives with a passion. I mean who are they going to send up there that would relate to the voters in those areas Reece Mogg?

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    1. Poor Adam harking back to the eighties when Thatcher was transforming a burst economy. We are now in the 21st century son and the Tories and Blair increased prosperity in the UK. The Scottish Nat sis have embraced Tory capitalist policies.

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    2. For all the GWC time spends on here rambling and SNP poll above 50 %. Haha. What a waster.

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  10. My union is tearing itself apart. Working class white Tory scum like myself have only ourselves to blame. Trailer trash we're called in the US of A .

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    1. Taig impersonator. The Paddies are running Scotland.

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    2. Bientôt mon ami.

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    3. Fruitbat a gogo. Hanging in there. Never been to a ballet and an opera. No intention of joining a mob of cream puffs sitting watching some fat bint churning out some crap in French or Italian. English is never good enough four them. Well it's good enough four me.

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    4. I fear that I have to tell you that My Lady Nugee is severely disappointed with your statement. I think that the dispassionate and enlightened onlooker could hardly fail to agree that this communique falls far short of an appropriate understanding of Islingtonian class struggle.

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  11. James,

    Do you know the sample size?

    The Margin of error is, according to your good self + or - 8%.

    So you concentrated - with good reason, on the negative. It could indeed be 44% or an almost unbelievable 60%. But according to statistics and margins of error, neither can be ruled out.

    As it stands an optimist could see 60% and a pessimist 44%.

    That is, indeed, far too large a MoE to be useful to either side.

    We need better polls!

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    1. This isn't a full-scale poll - as stated, it's just a subsample. We've had a full-scale poll from YouGov relatively recently and that's why we have a fair idea that the true figure is closer to 44%.

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  12. There are already rumours of secret "discussions" between the LibDems and Scottish tories about how to stall the expected SNP advance at the next GE. Now what cunning plans are they hatching I wonder? Desperate stuff.

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  13. Is 'British' a sect? 'Irish' too?

    It's just I'm pondering why this is described as 'sectarianism' rather than an ongoing unresolved conflict over the relic imperial partitioning of a country in modern Europe.

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    1. The Irish Thiefdoms were given to the Catholic Normans by the Vatican. The British united Ireland then it split. It is what the people wanted. Skier do you think the Irish are a special species like the Israelis do?

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    2. I must admit I didn't know the Israelis consider the Irish a special species.

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    3. The Israeli Palestinians do. They enjoy mutual support in murder.

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  14. Totally of topic yet still related to independence, Why does no one in any of the independence sites mention that the nation and people’s of Scotland are still independent even from Hollywood never mind from England or Westminster or the Eu, as legalities stand the people of Scotland were never asked if they wanted to join in a union with England. It was never asked of the sovereign people of Scotland they did not vote to join and protested as such, Only the parcel o rogues joined the union and joined the two parliaments and what ever land they personally held at that time. This also makes the question in 2014 invalid to the Scottish people as we never voted to join in 1706/1707.Hollyrood May not be independent but we the people of Scotland have maintained our sovereignty, Have the claim of right or Arbroath treaty is a bonus indeed. But I wonder how many more years have to pass before the people of Scotland wake up to the legal reality? And why do none of the independence sites mention this legal loophole?

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  15. No-one is independent from Hollywood. It's cultural hegemony. (Although young Jsmes thinks that Eurovision could be an alternative.)

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  16. Call me cynical/suspicious but this latest revelation that Labour in Scotland cannae find candidates for some constituencies revives the ghost of Kezia D's ploy of BritNats voting for whoever can defeat the SNP.
    Sinister forces could be at play - or it just my paranoia?

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    1. Aye - it will be very interesting to see which constituencies SLAB cannot find candidates (or end up fielding no-hopers deliberately). Maybe secret discussions have already begun. :)

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  17. Alistair Carmichael is reported to be in talks at this very moment with the Tories on strategies to defeat the SNP in Scotland

    It's funny though, they report this as if it's something new that the Lib Dems Labour and Tories aren't already doing in councils all over Scotland where the SNP are the largest party but are kept from representing the people who voted for them by a coalition of those three Unionist parties as long as they can muster one more councillor to make up the greater collective number then blame the SNP for what they are actually doing

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    1. Alistair Carmichael is British and anti Fascist. The Scottish Nat sis are in the German camp now.

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    2. Alistair Carmichael works for the Ministry of Truth and we have always been in union with Ukania and the U.S.E.

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    3. I'm entering. But I can't really do anything.

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  18. I see the Lib Dems are saying that all Scotland needs to do to reverse the 2014 result is to vote for the SNP in a GE. That's it. Simple majority and indy it is.

    I must admit I was taken aback by this, but then if Article 50 can be cancelled, so can Article 2014.

    After all, this is what unionists have always argued. I remember thatcher making a point of it.

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    1. We could all vote for pre Germany 1933 and get the get the Jocko germania nat sis.

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    2. Hello Skier can you direct me to this as this is very interetsing and not something I would expect from Swinson

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  19. Tory and Lib Dem are pretty much interchangeable these days.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49703214

    Former Conservative MP Sam Gyimah joins Lib Dems

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    1. The Conservative Liberal Party in England and the Conservative Labour Party in Scotland don't seem headed for a bright future. Ms Swinson and Mr Leotard are like figures of fun.

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  20. In England today the Tories have a group called the ERG they claim is a research group, in the 1930s they had a research group just like it in Germany and those folk didn't like the law or courts either

    Look how that turned out, nothing changes except peoples memories

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  21. And Mr. Campbell bans me from his blog for saying that now is the best we have been placed in the polls and we could surely do without infighting ? Makes me wonder what he is up to?
    Been supporting the SNP since I could vote(61 now), member of the party been on the marches waiving my flag and he tells me to F Off for calling him out with his dissatisfaction with the SNP. You need debate not dictate so I will continue to fight for Scottish Independence not make a living from its supporters. Wings is clipped for me for good.
    Keep up the good cause.

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    1. You're among many who've had enough of what's going on at Wings

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    2. Sadly, his ego has got the better of him.

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    3. I personally couldn't give a rats erse whether Stuart Campbell likes me or not.

      I'm not sure why anyone should care. It's not as if his tweets make an ounce of difference to anything anyway.

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    4. In terms of his own views on things that is (to clarify).

      I do find his feed (and blog) useful for links to relevant articles, which is why I've subscribed historically. Saves me trawling through piles of unionist media shite to find material I'm interested in.

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  22. The Rev Stu is demented. The little git even argues with his own defecation.

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  23. If you don't agree with English people on this you must be anti-English.

    And anti-Scottish / N. Irish of course too.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-scotland-independence-northern-ireland-border-poll-a9105251.html

    Most voters believe government should allow Scotland and Northern Ireland to decide on UK membership after Brexit, poll finds

    Britain-wide survey finds only minority of voters think Boris Johnson should block referendums

    Britain’s voters are ready to let Scotland and Northern Ireland choose whether they wish to remain part of the United Kingdom following Brexit, a new poll has suggested.

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    1. Seems all the neigbours are thinking along the same lines.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49690513

      Herman Van Rompuy says Brexit 'has changed EU view of Scotland'

      A former president of the European Council has said he believes Brexit has changed EU attitudes to Scottish independence.

      In a BBC interview, Herman Van Rompuy said there was now "much more sympathy" for European regions seeking EU membership.

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    2. Mr Rumpy Pumpy. Another Nazi henchman.

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  24. Hello Skier can you direct me to a source that says lib dems are saying that all Scotland needs to get independence lt is to vote for the SNP in a GE. No doubt this is a very interesting departure from the usual unionist stuff and not something I would expect from Swinson in particular.

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    1. Well, they are campaigning to reverse the 2016 referendum result if they get a simply majority of MPs in a UK GE.

      So it naturally follows that they would agree the SNP can do exactly this for the 2014 result.

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    2. Remember, Scots didn't know what they were voting for in 2014. They certainly didn't vote for a hard union!

      Cancel Sconion! Revoke Article 2014!

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  25. Lib Dems have just voted that if they win the general election they will revoke article 50 without a second EU referendum.
    By extrapolation then they now support the right of Scots to elect a majority of SNP MP's to deliver a second Indyref.
    Unless of course Swinson decides that basic liberalism and democracy cannot apply to the people of Scotland.
    Aye, that sounds like their line.

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    1. Not just a second indyref, but outright independence without any referendum.

      That's the direct equivalent of revoking article 50, i.e. simply revoking the 2014 result and leaving the UK.

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  26. Apologies Skier, didnae see your earlier post till now. Couldn't agree more!

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  27. of course the SNP could be asking its members to give the SNP a mandate to do this, gain an majority in a GE and go for Indy based on this. However they have decided this is not a route that should be considered.

    So you could extrapolate that the Lib Dems support the right of Scots to elect a majority of SNP MP's to deliver a second Indyref, but the SNP do not.

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    1. It could be undemocratic to go for independence on a minority of the vote, even if that got a majority of MPs.

      Going for referendum based on that is fine as folk can just vote no. However, there is already a mandate for that from Holyrood.

      If the UK government doesn't grant a Section 30, then things are quite different though. That means the UK is not a democracy, and there can't actually be a referendum that it will recognise 'legally'. So in this case, it's perfectly fine for Scots MPs to just end the union by withdrawing from Westminster without a referendum. After all, there can't be one as Westminster won't allow it.

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  28. Jo Swinson maybe had better think about how she leads this magnificent new Tory lib party she's got without a seat because according to all the polls she's about to lose hers

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    1. She probably has enough milk in her tits too make a profit.

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  29. Lib Dem wealthy, smiley, churchgoing middle class are to revoke article 50 if obtaining a majority. No doubt the Jocko Nat sis will support them. Time to sharpen the farm implements methinks. Democracy really at a crossroads now. This is like the rise of the Nazis.

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    1. I agree on the Lib Dems being undemocratic.

      If you vote for Scottish indy you can escape them and their plan.

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    2. So the Germans would still run Scotland under your plan?

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    3. Well of course the Lib Dems wouldn't have managed to even have such a policy had not SNP Joanna Cherry done all the legal work to make such a decision possible for the Lib Dems who sat on their backsides and contributed nothing until Joanna Cherry MP QC won the legal right then as usual the Lib Dems pipe up as if it had something to do with them

      Of course in 2008 Jo Swinson and her Lib Dems staged a walkout in the Commons because they demanded an EU referendum, this from the party (Lib Dems) who are shouting about not forgiving David Cameron for having one

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    4. Cherry is an anti democratic fascist who like the Nazis does not respect the wil of the people.

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    5. This is your plan for when you're sacked from the Union;

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49708570

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    6. They're a bunch of pluggers. I wonder if they get pushed at the conference's. I bet Alistair Carmichael and Swinson do the hokey pokey then get fruity. Everything goes on at liberals conferences. Mental bunch.

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    7. I met a guy at a party who'd been at a liberal conference and could hardly walk after the fun he'd had. He said it was like being a polo mint in a room full of straws.

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  30. It strikes me that Joanna Cherry is someone with ability. But why did Jahaargh Swinson and Mr Union Jacket of Edinburgh South choose to support her case?

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    1. Her ability is to have the law changed by remain judges similar in kind to what the NAZIs did.

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    2. Mrs Skier has a lot of power in her hands (if you believe the sulphuric Baath Over Scotland Twitter):

      "The SNP goal is independence if we need to kiss a frog to achieve this then kiss the fucking frog."

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    3. If Knickerless gives me blow jobs on the hour and half hour even if the bus does not turn up I will vote SNP.

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    4. The bus never turns up when you're under it.

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    5. Provided it is not a Tartan Tory souter privatised bus.

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    6. Actually it was the Nazi party who replaced the government and judiciary in Germany in the 1930s because like the Tories they didn't care for the law and they used a special group to do it called *The research group* sound familiar? it should, it's exactly the same tactics as the Tories are using now

      As for the Liberal Democrats supporting Joanna Cherry, they didn't, they just hung around until she and her actual team did the work then when the result was positive the Lib Dems like they always do claim the credit

      As the Lib Dem Tories are now a largish party in England of course the media will big them up like nobody's business, fortunately in Scotland just like Labour we've sussed them out for what they are and their points are dropping, not rising

      As for Wings over Scotland, how far and how long can this angry man keep falling until he reaches bottom, this Farage style attacking of the SNP because of his own angry agenda will and is losing him supporters
      Stuart Campbell is a clever writer and and was a popular guy but I'm afraid his popularity and influence are not quite what he thinks or hopes it is
      People at first were thinking Hmm reasons? now they're beginning not to care as his ego is just not that important

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    7. Eh, there was a legal referendum in the UK. You Nat sis are no better than Heinrich Himmler. A knock on the door imminent and aff tae the holiday camps.

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    8. - Knock knock.
      - Who's there?
      - Heinrich.
      - Heinrich who?
      - Heinrich Himmler and a random selection of people that some weirdo calls nat sis.

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  31. I agree with Swinson's position. After the Brexit referendum there can be NO second referendum it is not fair - you have to accede to the will of the majority. Standing on a manifesto that ignores the result is (in my opinion) the only true democratic way to undo the result of the referendum. Similarly if we vote in a referendum for independence there can be no second referendum - but parties can stand on an 'ignore it' platform in an election if there is one before the divorce.

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    1. And get their assess whipped at the polls like the Lib Dems will for this.

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    2. Although note that Scotland re-joining the UK would require the consent of voters in the UK (just as re-joining the EU would). I mean it could block their brexit for a start.

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  32. InEngland there are no such things as legal referendums unless the parliament of England makes them legal, not the executive, the parliament because in England all referendums are advisory the choice to carry the out the results of such referendums is the choice of parliament as the people of England are not sovereign

    In Scotland our parliament is subject to the law and referendums are an instruction to our parliament, our ancestors were clever people and in the end that will be England's downfall

    The Law

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    1. I was on a bus in Edinburgh and saw Mr Coal-Scuttle out the window.

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