I'm not sure if this information was published at the weekend and I just wasn't aware of it because I don't pay the Murdoch Levy, but anyway, it turns out that the new Panelbase poll also asked the independence question, and the results confirm what appeared to be the case from two polls a few weeks ago - that Yes support is riding higher than it has been for years.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)
To put this in perspective, Panelbase have recently been one of the most No-friendly polling firms, and for eighteen months between the early summer of 2017 and the autumn of 2018, they consistently had Yes on either 43% or 44%. The last two Panelbase polls showed Yes had jumped to 47%, and now 48% is a three-year high. It's very unlikely that such a sustained pattern is illusory - it does look like support for independence has increased significantly over recent months. YouGov, of course, have shown the same trend.
What is it going to take to get Yes over 50%?
ReplyDeleteTo be honest I don't know if I want that to happen at the moment or not. The backlash if the unionist bloc sees it doesn't have a majority any more might be a bit rough.
Prime Minister Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.
DeleteAs above in a Confidence & Supply arrangement with Labour in a London Parliament with only 3 BritNat MPs from Scotland, none of them Conservative.
DeleteAnd maybe not even then.
As both above plus no-deal Brexit.
DeletePlus the no-deal Brexit recession/Depression, and food and medicine humanitarian crises.
Plus the worldwide recession coming anyway in eighteen months.
I'm wondering how it's going to be if and when we wake up on Monday morning to see Scotland with 3 or 4 SNP MEPs while the Brexiteers have swept the board in England and Wales.
DeletePaddy Sean McNulty is no doubt an Irish University Graduate and clever bullshit artist. We have enough of those here in Sconnie Boatland Sean me boy do look after your own poor and abused.
DeleteYou Nat sis should be at 88% according to your pro EU fascist propaganda. And if you get 51% we Unionists will not accept the vote as you are racist and anti English.
ReplyDeletemy family is English you moron, go and do some research
DeleteI researched enough to find out you type of English would be better staying at home instead of going to Scotland and trying to make yourself popular there with a shower of fash nat sis. Stop crawling to those seperatists.
DeleteJames - can you explain why Panelbase are consistently low in polling for YES. Is that they don't ask EU residents, or 16 - 18 year olds, or they weight the results differently or some other explanation?
ReplyDeletecapella, get a life and go tae bed.
DeleteI went to school with a guy called Murdoch Levy.
DeleteI fully understand why people may ask (and often do) what it will take to get Yes to over 50%.
ReplyDeleteIn my own opinion, I think we might underestimate how strongly people have been 'programmed' to doubt that we can go it alone, but more importantly, if we did see a surge of support for yes, there could just as easily be another surge back to No, as the 'Dark Money Propaganda Machine' from Westminster kicked into action, with 'Project Fear 2'
Remember how we began to surge ahead in the polls near the end of indyref 1, only to have it snatched away at the last minute.
It is far better to see these consistent but gradual 1 or 2 percentage point rises, suggesting that people are thinking carefully about Scotland's place in the world, and are deciding that they will vote Yes in future.
Once they have decided to vote Yes and become hardened in that conviction, it is very hard to see any project fear mark 2 managing to scare enough pensioners and disabled folk to win a referendum, like they did the last time.
So, just when folks were thinking maybe the UK isn't that racist, it's going to vote 1/3 for the 'fuck off furriners party'? Farage is the actual president of the AfD in Brussels.
ReplyDeleteAnd that makes three of them.
DeleteSaying you'll vote for a new party and then actually doing it is not the same thing.
ReplyDeleteThe SNP voters will turn out not just over Brexit but because of the disrespect shown to our Govt.and Holyrood itself.
This I'm sure will be another step on the road to scottish statehood.
Slowly slowly catchee monkey.
Disgusting racism.
Delete