Stuart Campbell of Wings Over Scotland reacted impatiently to Nicola Sturgeon's statement this afternoon, pointing out that it failed to explain how the Scottish Government propose to actually overcome London's obstructionism on a Section 30 order. And I agree that in an ideal world, she would have said "we want a referendum to take place with a Section 30 order, but it will take place anyway" or " if a Section 30 order is not granted, we will use the Holyrood election to seek an outright mandate for independence". But given how negative some of the mood music has been, I think it's fair to say that Ms Sturgeon went about as far as we could have realistically hoped for today, and if I'm being honest she went a bit further than I expected. It's worth contrasting what she could have said if the narrative of certain journalists had been proved right, and what she actually did say.
* She could have simply said that because of the Brexit extension, she was waiting until at least October to make any decisions at all. Instead, she announced some substantive decisions today.
* She could have said that because of the uncertainty over Brexit, and "in the national interest", she was going to let the current mandate for a pre-2021 referendum expire and seek a fresh mandate at the next Holyrood election. She instead did the polar opposite of that, and declared her intention to hold a referendum before the 2021 election.
* She could have set out an aspiration for a pre-2021 referendum, but let the momentum fizzle out by taking no concrete steps to move us closer to that referendum being held. Instead, she announced legislation that will prepare the ground for a referendum even before a Section 30 order is sought.
* She could have done what Joyce McMillan suggested a few months ago, and declared that it would be wrong to seek an independence referendum for as long as we know the Tory government will refuse a Section 30 order. Instead, she left no room for doubt that a Section 30 order will be formally requested well before the 2021 election.
* She could have stated absolutely and unequivocally that Westminster permission is required for an independence referendum. If you read some journalists' paraphrasing of her statement, you'd be forgiven for thinking that's exactly what she did say. But she didn't. She instead used words to the effect that a Section 30 order would be needed to put the legal position beyond doubt, thus leaving the door slightly ajar - on paper at least - for action to be taken in the absence of a Section 30 order. It's blindingly obvious that she isn't remotely attracted to the idea of a consultative referendum, but at least she didn't needlessly rule it out.
So, all in all, I'm reasonably happy with the statement, and I think it leaves us in a better position today than we were in yesterday.
On one hand, it's easy to see why the pace is so glacial, i.e. the continual can-kicking by the Tories (now being assisted by Labour in a game of 'it's the other one's fault this isn't happening yet!') down South.
ReplyDeleteBut what I'd like to know is how 'deserve the chance to choose between independence and Brexit Britain before 2021' would square with Westminster continuing to can-kick to that date and beyond? Surely it'd have been good to add 'and if they are still pissing us about by that time, we go for it anyway because the uncertainty has dragged on long enough'.
I like that part "if they are still pissing us about by that time,we go for it anyway because the uncertainty has dragged on long enough" and agree with you. I've been waiting since I was a boy of around 14/15 for independence and 67 come June and I might not last much longer let us get free before I dee.
DeleteWell said. Me too.
DeleteSo are we definitely having another referendum before May 2021? The way it is worded I am left unsure.
ReplyDeleteWell, of course if Brexit is dumped, then there's no indyref. I think that's fair enough.
DeleteThe glaring omission was what would happen if the Brexit can gets kicked beyond May 2021, or if UKGov refuses to endorse a referendum. Perhaps naively, though, I'm optimistic - I can't see how her leadership would survive failing to request a section 30, or meekly submitting when it's refused.
Yes I think the SNP still support a PeoplesVote and will support it if it comes to the Commons, then I imagine they'll support a Remain option, which we all hope will be successful.
DeleteMeanwhile in the background the Yes campaign will be running towards... being cancelled, surely?
shouts of federalism - opposition # gordon browns tooth fairy
ReplyDeleteShe can overcome the refusal of a section 30 0rder quite easily. She could ask the Scottish people, who have been deemed soveriegn by Westminster, for permission to repeal the treaty of union.
ReplyDeleteThe people of Scotland are Sovereign but the Scottish Parliament is not and the Union of Scotland and England is reserved. The Scottish Parliament cannot repeal the treaty.
DeleteThe Sovereign people of Scotland have the power to give the Scottish Parliament the power to repeal the Union with England Act 1707.
DeleteHow do they do that though?
No they really don't. The Scottish people do not have the power to give a devolved parliament reserved powers. I honestly don't know were this dissolve the union/repeal the Union gets so much traction from.
DeleteThe "dissolve the union" stuff is so obviously insane I sometimes wonder if it was started by a plant.
DeleteIt's not insane, it's essentially UDI, which is not a completely impossible option as an absolute last resort. But what baffles me is that some people seem to think that unilaterally dissolving the union is not UDI, or is even somehow the opposite of UDI.
DeleteUm....sorry to say but lately the " insane" ideas have been winning.
DeleteIt's not insane, it's essentially UDI, which is not a completely impossible option as an absolute last resort.
DeleteThat's why it's insane. We're pretty far from the last resort.
The Scottish Nat sis wanted another referendum on 20 September 2014.
ReplyDeleteThey are fascists who want to just use the ballot box like Adolf did to achieve a single aim. And they will still not answer why they want the Mafia EU corrupt regime to run Scotland. They will not answer why they will participate in an EU army and who the enemy is.
"Everyone's a Nazi except me and my ultra-right-wing poster boys! I hate you all! STOP LAUGHING AT ME!
DeleteWAAAAH!"
What do the Britnatsi's want then? just war like they always want, destroy any place that seeks independence before they get freedom from Westminster's oppression.Not content with destroying the language and heritage of the invaded country but destroy all forms of shelter and their economy.
DeleteOh dear, you should stick to posting on Wings about your holiday in a French WW2 bunker in 1968. One of your less bizarre ramblings
DeleteThe SG don't have the final say as it currently stands. if the punters show an willingness for it then it would be near imposssible to stop. In fact it would be good for us if they did then try to stop it from happening.
ReplyDeletean increased willingness from the current 50/50 in the polls i should say
ReplyDeleteJaunty lollipop.
DeleteLaundry jollypop.
DeleteIt is coming regardless. I am certain of that and there is not a thing any of the utterly cringeworthy British enthusiasts can do about it. It is a fact that they would have a better chance of prolonging the British political system if they hid themselves away for the next few years.
ReplyDeleteThe Scottish fascists are doing what the EU fascists are doing by trying to grind the majority down.
ReplyDelete"Everyone's a Nazi except me and my ultra-right-wing poster boys! I hate you all! STOP LAUGHING AT ME!
DeleteWAAAAH!"
The Section 30 refusal must be milked for every vote, and what a lot of votes it will generate.
ReplyDeleteIf there is one thing voters can't stand, it's having their vote taken off them.
Which is what the English government is attempting right now.
Cameron was wise not to fall into that trap. It won him 2014. But then he was British. He understood. May's English.
Cameron will be the last British PM of the UK.
skier you are a victim of your own own lies and propaganda. The English gave up their parliament in 1707 due to Scots muscling in on English trade and profit.
DeleteWestminster operates officially as the English parliament when it sits under EVEL.
DeleteThe cabinet are all English because of this.
With respect to Scottish independence, all English (and Welsh/N. Irish) MPs are unelected. While they can decide on UK-wide matters (including those covering Scotland), they should have no say when it comes to independence as that's not a UK constitutional matter, but a Scottish only one.
DeleteScots don't zip up the back; they're quite aware who's trying take their vote away from them and make their country a colony. No amount of shite from you on the internet changes that.
And it's your problem, not mine. I think it's great.
When Cameron announced the Edinburgh Agreement so early after all the talk of an iref being refused, I thought 'Clever bastard, you've just probably won this'. He did.
If I was Sturgeon / the SNP cabinet, I would not make a pubic announcement to the English government of how I'd counter the refusal of a Section 30.
ReplyDeleteI'd leave them wondering.
Maybe that's just me.
That's fine, but for that to work they would have to stop telegraphing that a consultative referendum isn't even being considered as a serious option.
DeleteAs long as you word and plan everything correctly, the iref you set up could go ahead with a Section 30 or without. Both options would be consultative only, just like 2014 (and 2016).
Delete2014 was a consultative referendum; it wasn't legally binding. All the EA did was secure a political statement saying the result would be respected, with the Section 30 making sure there should not be legal challenges over competence (it's a grey area that the Section 30 sought to clear up).
So no Section 30 means possible legal challenges and England threatening to send in the jackboots like Spain (which it will need to do possibly if the result doesn't go the way it wants).
Otherwise, no real difference in terms of putting things in place.
skier you are in a hole of lies. Get a grip. The British Cabinet is not all English.
ReplyDeleteReflective to consider the wisp of the way.
DeletePlease list the MPs representing Scots constituencies in the English cabinet (and shadow cabinet if you like).
DeleteThe Scottish Grand Committee of MPs, elected by Scots, back a Section 30 in massive majority. So MPs from which UK nation are refusing it?
Sturgeon and SNP are cowards. As a declaration of intent it was gutless, spineless and brainless and they just threw away the EU Election. If Indy isn't front and centre of their campaign what is the point of voting in EU Elections. I am not alone in my views. If they next Indy Ref isn't held before 2021 then there will never be another one. I accuse the SNP and Sturgeon of treachery in relation to Indy.
ReplyDeleteBased on the polling we have in hand, the current strategy seems to be highly effective. They appear to have opened up a 26 point lead over the Tories for Westminster intention and could do similarly well in the EU elections.
DeleteI've said before that any #EUref2 really needs to take place after the UK has officially brexited and is in the transition period. That way the EU / EFTAs could make formal offers of membership to Scotland as the UK would no longer be an EEA member. If the Yes vote came early in the transition, a seamless transition to independence in the single market with EU or EEA membership in due course would be possible.
I'd be very, very surprised if our neighbours had not already told Sturgeon this, i.e. that their hands are tied until the UK legally becomes a third country, so hold her horses if she wants Scotland in the single market by the simplest route, particularly is if the UK is refusing to recognise an second iref.
In the end, in the absence of a Section 30, if all the EEA neigbours recognise the Yes, what England with its wee bit of Section 30 paper thinks matters jack shit.
Oh polls show a narrow victory for No right now, but Yes winning, an potentially very comfortably, should brexit go ahead.
DeleteAfter all, iref2 is based on brexit and the Yes from many voters dependent on it happening.
When the latter are confident that the madness is not being cancelled, then they'll be ready to vote Yes.
Hence post legal exit day (now delayed to October) makes the most sense.
... sorry James, I disagree "in the national interest" ... in who's National Interest ? ... certainly not Scotland's !! ... I've said it before, Nicola needs to stop saving England from itself & start saving Scotland from the rUK !!
ReplyDeleteYou completely misunderstood what I was saying there, Anon.
DeleteTo use a football analogy, Sturgeon has setup her team with a 4-6-0 formation.
ReplyDeleteToday's speech amounted to sending the strikers out to warm up.
Off topic slightly, but AUOB reaction to the timing for the march in Glasgow being changed is frankly disgusting.
ReplyDeleteI work as a paramedic and seen first hand the amount of planning and analasis that goes into making sure that large gatherings of people so without major problems and if the police /fire service are wanting the start time changed then it is for a good reason.
Saying that there has never been any problems before is not a vaild argument. There is always the risk of something going wrong, all that the emergency services can do it put in procedures to mitigate risks as much as possible, if that means changing the start time then so be it.
Very much seems that AUOB are getting 'too big for their boots' I just hope to god that their fragrant disregard for peoples safety does not come back to haunt them.
Go and poop in a bucket, Lady.
DeleteCordelia there, sharing entirely too much about its bizarre habits.
DeleteSanctioned, sanitised protest is pointless. We WANT Glasgow city centre brought ot a standstill, that is the whole point - to make a statement people cannot ignore.
ReplyDeleteAway with your sanctimonious concern troll pish Adam, you are fooling no-one.
Nick - don't be such a chest-beating fud.
DeleteGot nothing against making a statement etc. Just making the point that the change to the start time is not some sort of conspiracy to reduce numbers like AUOB are trying to make out, it is so that the event can go ahead safely both for people who attend the march and other people in Glasgow; cant see what the issue is with that?
DeleteGlasgow would stand still watching you knobs on the street but it will pass.
DeleteUnlike Cordelia's gammony rage. That'll never pass.
DeleteSturgeon: "Och, this brexit lark will cause irreparable damage to scotland's economy, is proving nigh on impossible to deliver as we're so tightly integrated into the union and is near enough a 50-50 split in opinion to cause endless grief either way"
ReplyDeleteGnats: "Oh no, whit tae dae?"
Sturgeon: "So we will have an indy vote, which if happens will cause irrepairable damage to scotland's economy, be nigh on impossible to deliver as we're so tightly bound into the union, and is near enough a 50-50 split in opinion to cause endless grief either way"
Gnats: "Huzzah!"
Brexit is totally and absolutely possible. Easy peasy.
DeleteThe primary reason it's a mess is because England can't decide WTF it wants, and is fighting over the fairy or unicorn options.
If it just went for e.g. the Norway model, things would all be fine. Canada+ would also be ok; long term economic decline, but not cliff edge crash stuff.
Everyone knows this is the main problem. See the polls.
Not to mention that the SNP aren't helping but rather doing their best to slow or even prevent Brexit.
DeleteWould be interesting to see how close a deal is without Scotland's votes.
The choice is between the Union or Brexit.
No, no, no, England's making an absolute prize fuck up of brexit all by itself.
DeleteAlthough I very much doubt the union could survive the SNP stopping England's brexit if somehow they did succeed.
If Remain had won on the back of Scotland votes we'd likely already be independent.
James, Is there still the option of declaring independence through an election as it used to seem was the way forward?
ReplyDeleteTime for an AUOUF (All Under One Union Flag) org. That will show the Nat sis we are still here. Look forward to the battle.
ReplyDeleteI understand their recent march was cancelled because they were not allowed to spit on the locals.
DeleteFilthy habit spitting but not as bad as buggering children and murdering a young journalist.
DeleteCordelia there, sharing entirely too much of its sickening inner life.
DeleteHope you both have a lovely day.
DeleteI see the UK government is invalidating the 2014 result.
ReplyDeleteNo new Section 30 and the 2014 result ceases to stand.
A democratic vote only stands so long as the electorate are free to overturn it, but choose not to do so.
skier, take the pill. You have lost. We Unionists have got the measure of you Irish Republicans who pretend to be Scottish. Most saltire flag wavers are having to hide their Irish Tricolours.
DeletePoor tormented Cordelia and its bizarre conspiracy theories. It knows we haven't lost because it still turns up here at all hours, screaming with impotent bigoted rage.
DeleteNew poll by Survation commissioned by Scotland in Union
ReplyDeleteWestminster voting intention:
SNP 41%
Con 22% )
Lab 24%
Lib Dems 8%
Other 5%