As I understand it, the SNP's strategy on an independence referendum since last summer's "reset" has been to focus all their energies on full-bloodedly and sincerely attempting to secure a soft Brexit for the whole UK, knowing that if they failed, they could then look the public in the eye and say with total honesty: "Every conceivable avenue for remaining in the single market and the customs union as part of the UK has now been exhausted. Independence is the only game in town from now on."
That means, paradoxically, that their honest endeavours could have been moving them a little further away from their primary political objective. Both last night and tonight, SNP MPs have taken part in knife-edge votes on the Trade Bill. If they had been on the winning side in those votes, a softer Brexit would have looked much more likely, and the case for an early independence referendum would have looked considerably less clear-cut. But courtesy of the very small and eccentric band of hard-core Labour Brexiteers, the most important votes were all lost. Theresa May's astonishing capitulation to the Rees-Mogg faction yesterday has been confirmed by the Commons, we are hurtling towards either a Hard Brexit or a no deal Brexit, and it looks increasingly hard to see how Nicola Sturgeon will be able to justify to herself (let alone to anyone else) a decision to let the current mandate for an independence referendum expire.
The London media may still be in a state of absolute denial about it, but with a decision about a referendum still promised by the autumn, the day of reckoning cannot be far off now.
It must be coming, I don’t see a way out of this mess without it now.
ReplyDeleteAnd the OBR forecasting austerity in the UK for the next 50 years, the SLab scares about indy become less and less credible.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Oldnat - stability within the single market or chaos with Mogg & Co.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be fun watching the Labour Branch campaigning in favour of rule by Rees Mogg, Johnson and Gove...
DeleteI misspoke. When I wrote "fun" I meant to say "inspirational".
DeleteSurvation tables finally out
ReplyDeletehttp://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Final-Tables-1.pdf
The indy and Holyrood questions did use the 16-24 age band, only the Westminster one used 18+
That directly contradicts the partial datasets that were published last week, which clearly stated multiple times that only over-18s were interviewed. Presumably that was a misprint.
DeleteThough (very oddly - Record please explain!) the question on attitudes to an indy referendum excluded 16/17 year olds. Might be Survation screwing up, but given the prominence given to the original story, I suspect a Clegg bite!
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the truly hard-core British Nationalists in the Labour Tories of Scotland even care that the likes of Frank Field and Kate Hoey have always been Conservative Tories, and that Labour Tories like the Jock crew in Westminster are Field Hoeys too. Much easier to blame everything on the Narrow Nationalists of the SNP instead and keep the red(ISH) flag fluttering above Red Morningside.
ReplyDeleteI was wondering at the fact that Ruth Davidson saves her own ass all the time will back independence to save her job and her party. She knows if she doesn't then the WM branch of Tories in Scotland are out of a job so she would have to come on board as leader of the Scottish only Tories to save herself for redundancy. No party no job. I'm sure she knows WM will have no use for her after independence so no job offer from down south unless she moves there to a soft secure seat. She is incredibly lazy as a politician and very self serving . So if her voters don't have a party to vote for after independence she will be to blame and if she moves south she would have to actually do some work and research. She is incredibly self serving so I expect her to jump on board or bail out on maternity leave and hope the hard work is all done by one of her minions for her to come back as leaders of the Scottish Tories. OthErskine thoughts on this would be appreciated.
ReplyDeleteAnna, Intetesting points about Davidson who will never lead the Conservative Party and never be the PM of Britain. She can get away with her laziness at Holyrood as she isn't and will never be in government, but WM is a different matter where her party is the usual choice of the electorate. You are right that she isn't up to any very demanding post, but since she lacks self-awareness as well as integrity, this hasn't dawned on her yet. I can see her laziness and need for attention driving her back to a career in the media, once the penny drops that the zenith of her career in politics is behind her.
ReplyDeleteSober up, minger.
DeleteWe still don’t know what kind of Brexit we’ll get; as Theresa May’s manoeuvre room gets ever smaller:
ReplyDelete- there may be a no confidence vote
- there may be a year’s extension agreed
- there may be a last minute ‘brinkmanship’ deal
- there may be yet another referendum
I don’t think we can say what Brexit will be like until if & when it happens!
We know it's going to be shit.
Delete9 wolves and a sheep: What should the sheep do?
Know its place and provide the mint sauce.
DeleteI hear the odd person still saying we shouldn't be getting for indyref 2 yet because 'it heaps uncertainty on uncertainty'.
ReplyDeleteFirst the word 'uncertainty' should be banned from political discourse because life is uncertain ('divisive' is another word that should be banned as it is code for 'don't express your wishes').
Second and most importantly, the 'uncertainty on uncertainty' argument is hogwash. We are heading for a situation that, no matter what we do, new infrastructure for certain things will have to be set up for the changing circumstances.
This makes it the ideal time to say 'we will have to do some of these things, indy or not, and if we *are* independent it will involve being focused on improving infrastructure and services IN Scotland'.
It makes no sense to wait until the Tories have been able to set up a 'new normal' and then look to unsettle people with asking them about change again.
This is a constitutionally cataclysmic period - change should be grasped now when we are at a huge fork in the road (and efforts made by ScotGov and ordinary punters too to ensure everyone understands why some form of change is unavoidable in this period, 'so you'd better pick').
What if the UK Govt say now is not the time for another referendum?
DeleteThen we say "It's not up to you. Claim of Right, right to national self-determination, get used to it, because we're going to have a referendum whether you like it or not."
DeleteExactly. It's none of their business and the WM Parliament is not sovereign in Scotland. We are.
DeleteThen you’d have an unofficial referendum which the unionists would boycott as it wouldn’t be legal. It would be like Catalonia, a 40% turnout.
DeleteThe SNP could make it an election pledge. In other words, vote SNP your vote is for independence. A majority for the SNP would be de facto a declaration of independence.
DeleteThoughts?
Union 2.0: For the millionth, billionth, zillionth time, a Referendum Bill passed by the Scottish Parliament and given Royal Assent will not be "illegal". It'll be the opposite of illegal. It'll be the law of the land. That Bill can be challenged in the Supreme Court before receiving Royal Assent, and if that challenge is upheld, the referendum won't go ahead. There are no circumstances in which an "illegal referendum" will be held. There are, however, circumstances in which a legal referendum held against Westminster's wishes may take place. You're making the schoolboy error of conflating "what Westminster wants" with "legality".
DeleteIf its an election Douglas, then its election rules. IE a majority means a majority of pro Indy seats. It should also be during a Westminster election as that's the Parliament we will be leaving. This is a simple first past the post election system and represents British Democracy in action.
DeleteIf its a referendum then its a majority of those that vote.
Can't have it both ways Union2.0. Its this choice that should focus Westminster's mind on which scenario they feel gives them a better chance of winning. Referendum or first past the post during a full UK general election.
braco
Apologies, James. I got my terminology wrong.
DeleteIt would be an unrecognised one, in the UK, in the UN and in half of Scotland where there would be a mass boycott of unionists.
That won’t help the independence cause. Douglas’ idea will.
Unionists should boycott a Nat si referendum and render it null and void. Referendum results should be respected for a generation at least. The fascist EU and its economic opportunist Jock nat si crawlers are history.
DeleteAre you suggesting that the unionist parties would boycott a legal referendum upheld by the UK Supreme Court? That would be, as Sir Humphrey Appleby might put it, a "courageous" decision.
DeleteYour point about "UK and UN recognition" is bogus. But you knew that already.
Look at Catalonia’s unofficial referendum and the turnout there. Why would unionists (and many nationalists) vote in an unofficial referendum just a few years after an official one?
DeleteWhy is that a bogus point?
The SNP (if they really want another referendum) should negotiate with the UK govt or, if that fails, stand on a manifesto of outright independence in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections.
Why Scottish Parliamentary elections Union2.0 It s the UK we are leaving so it should be done at the UK elections. First past the post. If held at Holyrood elections the entire UK media and political party system can be used to interfere and influence the election campaign unfairly in the same way the full Brittish establishment was used to lie cheat and scare the Scottish population during the referendum.
DeleteIf we hold the decision to leave during a Westminster General election it will get decided by the Scots on the merits of the arguments to Scotland as all UK parties and Media will be focused on their own issues in the general election campaign. The possibility of Scotland leaving the UK will come some way down their order of importance in those electoral circumstances (as its not that important to them in reality) and so Scottish Unionists will have to rely more on their own arguments and political skills in advancing their case for the Union. Good luck with that Union2.0. Think you and GWC2 would be up to the job?
braco
Or of course you could simply follow your own constitutional practices and agree that the Scottish Parliament can call a referendum on Independence any time it has a majority to get it passed in a vote on the floor of the Parliament. You know Democracy and the claim of right.
DeleteThat way, during a referendum the unionist establishment, media and political party system acan be used again in the same completely unfair way to try and influence the outcome of IndyRef2. It will also require a 50%+1 vote rather than the usual 40% vote for a first past the post landslide of a general election.
If I were a blackhearted unionist I know which option I would prefer. I say we put it to the test and force a decision.
braco :)
Braco,
DeleteJust to say with first-past-the-post 40% doesn’t give you a landslide it’s how you perform relative to the 2nd most popular party.
Anyway, the reason I say it should be the Scots Parliament elections and not the UK is because in 2011 the independence referendum was called by the SNP as they won the election on a promise of holding one. Scottish elections are about Scotland whereas general elections are about the whole UK.
In 2011 the SNP had a small minority of UK seats but that wasn’t a reason not to have the independence referendum, surely?
If we
I also think a fresh referendum is on its way one that truth will win and we shall have independence once more.
ReplyDeleteFnarr fnarr fneep fneep fnirp fnirp
DeleteejfjJuly 18, 2018 at 2:27 PM
ReplyDeleteThen we say "It's not up to you. Claim of Right, right to national self-determination, get used to it, because we're going to have a referendum whether you like it or not."
But wait, you used the n-word. That's not acceptable and pc.
Get in line behind Hereford & Worcester, South Yorkshire and, most importantly, Somerset.
Good to see we are leaving the EU and the Jock nat si EU crawlers will not prevail and have Scotland as an EU local council. The SNP Nat sis have lost. They will never get Scotland into this corrupt mafia. institution. The Nat si MPs should walk away from
ReplyDeleteWestminster if they have any principle and join the Mafia!
You've hated Europe since Frank von Furter creased yer natsis when you were an Amsterdam rentboy back in the 90's.
DeleteThe Water Closet Grinder, Le Grinder WC, GWC.
DeleteYour probably never off Grinder. Trying to meet rentboy with tattoos and beards. You purv.
DeleteWRT your Sir Clifford of Rich comment, it's interesting seeing R Greenslade and the rest of teh Gaurdani going full Leask in their attack on the judgment. They are in favour of the media having absolute freedom to say anything they like about anybody without any redress. Fine bunch of lads. Fit in well with Journo Paedo and Ewen Spanner.
ReplyDeleteWeurgoninasSummerholiday. Congratulations and Celebrations and Hope Scotland will be free from its English Chains. Take these English Chains fae ma heart an set me free.
DeleteYou want to chain up Scotty Poppers so you can stop him running as you jock yer latte up his natsis.
Delete"Matchmaker matchmaker make me a match, buy me a cat, bake me a batch."
DeleteAs Salmond sang to Angela Merkel while he was kissing her arse.
James, I am not suggesting a legal referendum is boycotted. An illegal one, yes.
ReplyDeleteBut to make clear, any referendum about seperatism is illegal anyway or soon will be.
DeleteAnd will be dealt with accordingly.
DeleteExplain.
Delete