We're getting a bit closer to solving the mystery of the elusive full-scale Scottish poll from Survation - it turns out it was commissioned by the Record. Given that publication's virulently anti-SNP, pro-Labour and anti-independence stance, it's intriguing that the first detail they've chosen to reveal is not Holyrood or Westminster voting intention, but as David Clegg himself puts it, "Indyref 2 voting intention". He's probably correct to anticipate Indyref 2 on these numbers, which suggest support for independence is higher than at the 2014 referendum, and is within just three percentage points of victory.
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 47% (+1)
No 53% (-1)
No 53% (-1)
The percentage changes I've listed above assume this is an online Survation poll, which it probably is. If that's right, it's the second consecutive increase in support for Yes, which has bounced back from the low of 43% recorded just after the general election in June. If by any chance it's a telephone poll, the recovery for Yes is even more dramatic, because the last Survation phone poll was conducted just before the June election, and had Yes on only 39%.
So it looks like the Yes vote has more than held up in spite of the relentless onslaught of the Yoon Media, along with the assurances that we has saw and now passed 'Peak-Nationalism'.
ReplyDeleteWith the resurgent Ruth, along with the 'New Socialist Labour' (or whatever they call themselves now) It was inevitable that the SNP/Yes would be crushed between the Unionist Rock and a hard place.
Oh dear, never mind, onwards and upwards :-)
Stand by for increased intensity of BBC regurgitation of Yoon press releases. #panic
ReplyDeleteYe hiv tae laugh at the desperation from paddiie Roden and a bloke called George.
ReplyDeleteGo doon the Co and get yer funeral arrangements made... Chaps...Arrange some flag wavers tae send ye aff...Ye are dun fur Scotland is British yer German, Irish and Frogs will not arrive tae save ye. Ye will never sell oot Scotland tae anyone.
If this incoherent ramble by 'Groveling Wee C*&nt 2' is anything to go by, it looks like we are in for 'Phazers set to Malky' levels of froth from the Yooniverse.
Deletehehehe!
The SNPBad has already ramped up. It will soon reach maximum SNPBadness. I'm getting out the popcorn with plenty of butter for the coming show of desperation.
ReplyDeleteHow well do these figures catch the voting intentions of EU citizens and 16-18 year olds able to vote in a referendum? Excuse the probable dumbness of the question.
ReplyDeleteGood question Rob,
DeleteYou have to sign up to one of these polling companies to be contacted by them, so I doubt if many young people under 18 will be included.
Not sure about EU citizens, but I'd imagine that figure would also be very low.
The 1 percent rise in Yes is on top if the 3 percent rise recorded the last time Survation asked the Indy Question, this is why the yoon media ramped up the anti-SNP smears, so it's brilliant to see it has had no affect whatsoever on the slow but sure rise of Scots deciding the only way out of this right-wing Neo-Con mess is to vote for the people of Scotland to make our own decisions.
Thanks, Patrick.
ReplyDeleteHave you looked at the Survation table breakdowns? Gender and region in particular seem very curious to me - Yes is now more popular with females than males, has made stunning *gains* in the NE and Lothians, but seem to have moved back in Glasgow. Increase in undecideds in the Highlands and Borders.
ReplyDeleteThe regional breakdown isn't especially important given the small sample sizes.
DeleteAlso, non-voters are consistently displaying the highest levels of leaning towards the SNP and independence. It's definitely a mobilisation game now. Hefty 28% of Labour voters are Yes too
DeleteThey had a problem finding men for this poll. Men have a big up weight.
Delete"The percentage changes I've listed above assume this is an online Survation poll"
ReplyDeleteCorrect, the methodology mentions this.