I'm still in foreign climes, so I haven't been staying on top of the Scottish subsamples from Britain-wide polls. But here's a round-up of the subsamples that have been published since my last update...
ICM: SNP 38%, Labour 27%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Greens 5%, UKIP 2%
YouGov: SNP 36%, Labour 32%, Conservatives 22%, Liberal Democrats 8%, Greens 1%, UKIP 1%
Opinium: SNP 40%, Conservatives 31%, Labour 20%, Greens 6%, UKIP 2%, Liberal Democrats 1%
Ipsos-Mori: SNP 48%, Conservatives 23%, Labour 19%, Liberal Democrats 7%, Greens 1%
Survation: SNP 41%, Labour 23%, Conservatives 23%, Liberal Democrats 12%, UKIP 1%
There are two omissions from that list. I can't find the datasets from the BMG poll, and there was another poll from Survation where there doesn't seem to be any Scottish figures in the datasets. If anyone can fill in those gaps, please let me know.
As far as the five listed above are concerned, obviously there's no consistency on how far the SNP are ahead, or which party is in second place. But it's really striking that the SNP are ahead right across the board, just as they were in the last batch of subsamples. We seem to be getting back to the point where it will be quite unexpected to see a subsample with the SNP behind Labour or the Tories, whereas during the summer it was a fairly frequent sight. This lends some support to my theory that the full-scale Scottish poll from Panelbase (showing an enormous SNP lead) took us by surprise not because the subsamples during the summer had misled us, but because the political weather has since changed, and the SNP have recovered from their post-election mini-wobble. That reality now appears to be showing up in the subsamples, just as it did in that sensational full-scale poll.
The snag with my theory remains the same as before. If the SNP are back to having a substantial lead over Labour, and indeed a bigger one than they had at the local elections in May and the general election in June, why did Labour do so well in the Fortissat and Cardonald by-elections earlier this month? I still can't really offer an answer to that question.
Answer - low turnout and local elections can be just that - local.
ReplyDeleteFortissat is a unionist area and the SNP have never had more than one councillor there. The fact that the better britain candidate did so well would bear that out.
ReplyDeleteDon't know Fortissat. But Cardonald is a working class housing estate and a Rangers/OO stronghold and "the people" are at the moment voting strongly anti-SNP.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that Fortissat leans towards Loyalism. I suppose that if the SNP isn't doing so well in chunks of West Central Scotland then the corollary is that the swing back to it is greater elsewhere. Good news for the likes of Pete Wishart.
DeleteI also note that the LibDem showing ranges between 1% and 12%. They really seem to be a series of constituency enclaves rather than a national party. Doesn't look to be any way back for them in places like Gordon and Berwickshire &c and their remaining voters and soft Tory defectors must be up for grabs.
Please delete me let me go
DeleteCardonald is not a housing estate herr Colemsn resident bigot.
DeleteStench of this.
DeleteIt is official, Scottish landowners own more land and property in comparison with the EU.
ReplyDeleteA great record for the jocko fash socialists!
And your point is crackhead
DeleteDrooping
DeleteAye James your pals are back...
ReplyDeleteWhen did they leave?
DeleteI got lost in Cardonald last year, in my car, looking for the railway station (long but boring story). I was struck by the number of Union Jacks flying from council houses, garden sheds. "Crikey jings", I thought, in my internal jedi voice, "the 'Naw' force is strong in this one".
ReplyDeleteYou are right even big Tam Sheridan flys the Union Flag.
DeleteUsed to work in Cardonald. It is just along from Ibrox and is mainly wall-to-wall Rangers supporters.
ReplyDeleteNot really surprising that it is staunchly Pro-Union/Orange Order etc....
You are jesting! You worked!! Cardonald is not a housing estate.
DeleteLong time no speak, Dummy.
DeleteNever said it was.
Your fash pal Coleman did!
DeleteUKIP has new leader and was a former Lib Dem. Kind of like a Jock Nat si and a Tory.
ReplyDeleteAuld yin Francis you are getting to the age when you think winking is like hivin a ham shank. If you travel east from Ibrox/Cessnock you will find all the Loyalist flagwaving pubs. Cardonald is west of Ibrox. Use yer free bus pass but take yer companion with you in case you wander!
ReplyDeleteWalked along P RD West many a time, bawbag - and remember a couple of winos sitting on a bench near Mosspark Blvd, leching at all the weans walking past, while fiddling with each other.
ReplyDeleteSure one was you.
Cardonald is just greater Ibrox, sonny - same chants/same flegs/same scroats.
We used tae hiv benches but the Nat si cooncil did away wi them with their cut backs. We use the bus shelter at the hawfway Co...
ReplyDeleteBet you carried the spittoon at the Quo Vadis......
ReplyDeleteAnd drank it wi the slops at lousing time.
Anyway - great to see the SNP leading from the front, where they ought to be, with wee Ruthie going backwards and auld Jeremy still trying to find Scotland on his Islington road-map.
Auld Jeremy is the only progressive amongst the lot you mention but he has one foot in the grave. And I did meet him in Central Stn after he did a walk about Scotland with his burd...So why do you nat sis want to sell Scotland out to the EU beaurocracy?
DeleteYeah.....I saw the private Zimmer-Commode they arranged for him.
DeleteI thought he did alright for the first few feet, until he lost his bearings and shot doon the stairs into the underground bog.
That must have been where you met him - you are there most days, aintcha?
Poor auld Jeremy couldnae climb back up the stairs - but it was OK, as the BT Polis lifted him for a Breach anyway.
Time for yer bed auld yin. A wee tot of sanatogin and get nursie tae tuck ye in.
DeleteYou might wake up ramorra with a sensible head.
Tim.
DeleteNice but dim. Looks like you fascists have all gone away and abandoned the cause.
DeleteHi
ReplyDeleteI think that the Survation poll in September didn't release the Westminster VI at first but it is there now?
Con 26.1
Lab 26.4
LD 6.6
SNP 39.3
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Final-SDM-VI-Tables-1c0d1h6-080917MBJRFSTJNHCH-I.pdf