Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Who will benefit from the suspension of campaigning?

The short answer to that question is : almost certainly the Conservative party.  At least until Monday morning, the momentum had been running away from the Tories, and even after the U-turn on social care, Theresa May was firmly on the back foot, as witnessed in her interview with Andrew Neil.  Since then, simply by doing what any potential Prime Minister (including Jeremy Corbyn) would do in the same situation, she has probably gone some way towards repairing her "strong and stable" brand in the public imagination.  And, whatever the rights and wrongs of the decision, the sight of armed forces on the streets will scare the living daylights out of a lot of voters, leading them to prioritise national security over bread-and-butter issues - a shift which is bound to favour the Tories.

There are a few possible counter-arguments to that reading of the situation -

1) A tragedy like the one we've seen this week may bring about an increase in civic-mindedness, and thus boost the turnout.  Although the surprise socialist victory in the Spanish election just after the 2004 Madrid bombings was attributed to Aznar's dishonesty in blaming Basque terrorists for the atrocity, it may have had just as much to do with the simple effect of a boost in turnout automatically favouring the parties of the left (ie. because the demographic groups most likely to vote for right-wing parties generally turn out anyway).

2) There may now be a modest UKIP recovery.  I've been astonished and dismayed by the number of otherwise sensible people I've seen on Facebook over the last 36 hours calling for mass deportations.  UKIP's campaign message may not go quite that far, but it's certainly the closest fit.  If UKIP do win some lapsed voters back (and remember they're only standing in roughly half the constituencies this time), it's not clear which party would suffer the most, but it's possible it might be the Tories.

3) Power is somewhat more dispersed in the UK than it used to be, so the politicians in leadership roles who have been making high-profile statements on the Manchester bombing and its implications haven't been confined to the Conservative party.  The new directly-elected Mayor of Greater Manchester is of course Andy Burnham, very well known to be a Labour politician.  Nicola Sturgeon's statements have been well-publicised in Scotland, and presumably the same is true of Carwyn Jones' statements in Wales.  The "clinging to the party of power in a moment of crisis" effect is therefore not quite as clear-cut as it might otherwise be.

4) The longer the campaign is suspended, the less time the Tories have to implement their planned "shock and awe" campaign to destroy the credibility of Jeremy Corbyn.

All of those factors should be taken seriously, but even in combination I don't think they outweigh the advantages that the Conservatives are now gaining.  When the next Britain-wide polls are published, I expect to see an increase in the Tory lead.

17 comments:

  1. You forgot one other thing, this happened on May's watch when her party has been cutting police and the military....... Particularly when the suspects were known to the police.

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    Replies
    1. Unfortunately folk who tend to react angrily tend not to think things through and cause and effect isn't considered.

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    2. You forget, it was the Tories that hired another 1000 spooks. They are the people that prevent terrorism, not Mr plod.

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  2. Ukip have been losing >half of their 2015 support to the Tories, so any Ukip recovery would almost certainly come at their expense.

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  3. The MSM attacks on Corbyn being weak on defence and security are now redundant. If the PM has raised the theat level based on independent advice, then Labour should seize on that saying he would have done the same.

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    Replies
    1. In reality,why do people care all that much about defence and security. The military is clearly is used in a way that makes us less secure. No one seems to be asking why these people are targeting us...

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    2. Unfortunate you were not targeted you braindead thicko......

      Delete
    3. Its the Corbyn/McDonnell loving Paddy O'Fash buoy. No surrender to the Red Tory IRA.

      Delete
    4. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
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      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
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      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
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      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
  4. The fundamental lesson that the Tories either can't or won't learn is that violence begets violence.
    As long as they continue to interfere in the affairs of other countries,those unto whom they have done will want to do them in return.
    Unfortunately it is the innocents who suffer as a result because the elite in UKOK are well protected by state resources.
    Their bubble continues,fully inflated.

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    Replies
    1. I agree with, what I think is, your fundamental argument. I dispute that the issue is a Tory one. Too long has the UK played games in the middle east, blue /red regardless. As you say, we have seen the consequences.

      I would (perhaps naively) hope that Scotland stopping being dependent would give their electorate pause for thought. Perhaps sufficiently that they reject the 'British bulldog' mentality which seems to persist in their ruling elite.

      [edit] Okay, maybe 'totally naively'

      Ach, it's all just a stitch up for their mates in the arms trade anyway.

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  5. 'Strong and stable' was looking like a jibbering, disintegrating wreck on Monday. In some parallel better universe, Manchester didn't happen and I have been enjoying watching her hubris come crashing down to earth. It now seems abundantly clear that she is very very poor. How on earth 'this difficult woman' who can't cope with Andrew Neil for 8 minutes going to get 'the best deal possible for Britain'? No wonder she wouldn't (couldn't) debate. Paxman interviewing May on Sunday evening might turn out to be compulsive viewing.
    ps still holding out for good news about the girl from Barra.

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  6. We're assured that this activating of a plan that May had no part in making is somehow a sign of strength. This from someone who spent weeks avoiding the public and not forgetting being hustled out of Westminster during a previous attack. This is even less a sign of leadership than Thatcher allegedly authorising the sinking of the Belgrano.

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  7. Not quite sure how this will play out. It might even end up with some sort of 'government of national unity'.

    We are in some odd territory here, a suspension of the General Election could be a possibility.

    Completely horrified at what happened, perhaps I am over-reacting, but I forecast this is the start of a putsch.

    'For the sake of the country'.

    Talk me down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No no no I couldny possibly disagree with that.

      Delete
  8. Deportation of islamic religious fanatics is perfectly reasonable. The Tory government is culpable of gross neglect in allowing those nutters who left to fight for ISIS back into the UK. They should have been handed over to Assad, end of problem
    Do remember that the great liberal Obama had thousands of illegals and criminals deported.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete