The run of exceptionally good subsample results for the SNP was finally broken today when Ipsos-Mori actually put the Tories ahead of the SNP. That hasn't happened previously in this campaign, but it's a somewhat artificial finding because the SNP were slightly ahead (and on a very healthy 45% of the vote) before the turnout filter was applied. As ever, individual subsamples are prone to huge error and should be treated with extreme caution, but an aggregate of several subsamples might conceivably tell you something interesting. Here is what the average of results over the last seven days shows...
SCOT GOES POP POLL OF POLLS
SNP 46.6% (+0.2)
Conservatives 30.1% (+2.1)
Labour 14.9% (+0.3)
Liberal Democrats 4.3% (-2.2)
I had a bit of a dilemma with this update, because Kantar/TNS provide partial information about their Scottish subsample, but don't reveal what the turnout-weighted figures are. I decided to take the view that you just have to go with the information that's actually available, so this update is based on subsamples from seven polls - two from YouGov, one from Ipsos-Mori, one from Kantar/TNS, one from Survation, one from Panelbase and one from ICM. The GfK subsample published today (which shows an enormous lead for the SNP) is excluded because the fieldwork began more than seven days ago.
A few people mentioned being interviewed by YouGov the other day for what seemed to be a Scotland-specific poll, so if it's intended for public consumption, we may not have to read the runes from subsamples for much longer.
Did yougov poll today, short and sweet about voting intention, post code verification asked then named local candidate. Likelihood to vote, end of poll.
ReplyDeleteA vote for the Nat sis is a vote for the Tories.
ReplyDeleteLove, Love, Love.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
It's easy.
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No one you can save that can't be saved.
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It's easy.
All you need is love.
All you need is love.
All you need is love, love.
Love is all you need.
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
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Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love (All together, now!)
All you need is love (Everybody!)
All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).
A vote for the Tories is a vote for the Nat sis.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
It's easy.
Nothing you can make that can't be made.
No one you can save that can't be saved.
Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
It's easy.
All you need is love.
All you need is love.
All you need is love, love.
Love is all you need.
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love (All together, now!)
All you need is love (Everybody!)
All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).
A vote for the Greens is a vote for the Nat sis and Tories.
DeleteGo away and Die you are just a pest to be swatted!
DeleteAfter 11yrs of the Nat sis I cannot afford to go away.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
It's easy.
Nothing you can make that can't be made.
No one you can save that can't be saved.
Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
It's easy.
All you need is love.
All you need is love.
All you need is love, love.
Love is all you need.
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love (All together, now!)
All you need is love (Everybody!)
All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).
It's worth remembering that there have really only been two national elections in recent history where the SNP exceeded expectations: 2011 and 2015. So it's reasonable to expect them to do less well than current polling suggests.
ReplyDeleteThe Nat si sponging party manifesto demands merr money fae the English working class taxpayer. We wis robbed says Knickerless an its nae ferr they English owe uz. We were hard dun tae they shagged our wummin an drunk oor whisky. An look whit they dun tae oor sheep....
ReplyDeleteLove, Love, Love.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
It's easy.
Nothing you can make that can't be made.
No one you can save that can't be saved.
Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
It's easy.
All you need is love.
All you need is love.
All you need is love, love.
Love is all you need.
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love (All together, now!)
All you need is love (Everybody!)
All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).
Vote tory you know it makes sense
ReplyDeleteLove, Love, Love.
DeleteLove, Love, Love.
Love, Love, Love.
There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
It's easy.
Nothing you can make that can't be made.
No one you can save that can't be saved.
Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
It's easy.
All you need is love.
All you need is love.
All you need is love, love.
Love is all you need.
Nothing you can know that isn't known.
Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
It's easy.
All you need is love (All together, now!)
All you need is love (Everybody!)
All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).
Gwc2 keep it up , you only help build a stronger yes vote
ReplyDelete