Sunday, May 14, 2017

"Remarkable" Scottish poll incoming?

Probably the less said about my Eurovision prediction the better, although I've got a few crumbs of comfort to cling to - I was correct about Bulgaria finishing second, I was right about Moldova doing better than the betting suggested (although I still underestimated how well they would do), and all of the songs I had in the top five finished in the top six.  However, I've been completely wrong about Belgium the whole way through, and I significantly overestimated Italy and underestimated Portugal.  I was right about the UK doing much worse in the public vote than with the juries, but that wasn't exactly a tough prediction.

I'm delighted that a song performed entirely in a language other than English has won for the first time since 2007 (last year's winner was partly in Crimean Tatar but also had English segments).  Mysteriously, Julia Hartley-Brewer said it was "a victory for the English language", so if anyone has the slightest clue what she might mean by that, be sure to let her know.

Turning back to the general election, there is apparently a "remarkable" Scottish poll in the Sunday Times, but I can't find any trace of the results online yet, and with it being almost 2am presumably we're going to have to wait a few more hours for whoever drew the short straw to #buyapaper.  I would imagine "remarkable" is most likely to be code for "good for the Tories", but let's not jump to conclusions - I suppose it could also mean a record low for Labour or something like that.  But even if our worst fears are confirmed, we should treat the poll with a measure of caution - it's likely to be from Panelbase, who have already produced the Scottish Tories' best showing in this campaign so far.  It's just possible there's a house effect at play.  We could really do with a much wider range of full-scale Scottish polls than we've had, but of course after the polling disasters of the last two years, newspapers are much more reluctant to spend money on polls that have no guarantee of accuracy.

(There's also the possibility that this will be an anti-climax and it won't even be a voting intention poll at all.)

UPDATE : As has been pointed out in the comments section below, there is a Britain-wide YouGov poll in the London edition of the Sunday Times, which could be classed as "remarkable" due to the strength of the Tory vote and the collapse of the UKIP vote.  It's possible that's what Jason Allardyce was referring to in his tweet, in which case we'll all be able to breathe a sigh of relief.  I had just assumed he was talking about a poll in the Scottish edition of the paper, which he edits.  Doubtless the mists will clear soon enough.

19 comments:

  1. I think the Sunday Times poll is from YOUGOV according to another polling site I have been reading which almost certainly means good for the Tories. The Opinium poll sub sample out tonight has the SNP at 43% with the Tories at 31% with Labour at a pitiful 18%.

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    Replies
    1. If it's the overnight Sunday Times/YouGov poll, it's not a Scottish poll at all. I suppose it's possible that's what Jason Allardyce was talking about - I just assumed he was talking about a poll in the Scottish edition, but who knows.

      Delete
    2. Is that Iain Lawson of great Tory fame now a Nat si? Fell out with his Tory pals over Linwood etc.

      Delete
    3. Love, Love, Love.
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      Delete
  2. Times Scottish Poll -

    "A huge 40,000 Britain–wide poll undertaken by Lord Ashcroft, the former Tory treasurer turned pollster, and released late on Friday included among those interviewed no less than 3,476 Scots — far more than in the typical Scotland-only poll.

    Ashcroft’s poll puts the SNP on 41%, down nine points on its tally in 2015, while the Conservatives are credited with 30%, up 15. Labour are on 17%, down seven, while the Liberal Democrats remain stuck on 7%."

    Tories would take 12 Scottish WM Seats on those figures.

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    Replies
    1. 1. The fieldwork for the Ashcroft poll was in late April / very early May, so it was basically conducted at the same time as the three Scotland-only polls that were released before the local elections (Panelbase, YouGov and Survation).

      2. It was a GB poll. Ashcroft's summary wasn't clear as to whether the poll was demographically weighted within each region, or just to GB as a whole.

      http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/#more-15204

      The sub-sample of today's YouGov poll has SNP 41, Tories 33 and Lab 15. Seems like a Tory-friendly sub-sample as Theresa May's approval is only -10 (41-51) and Corbyn's is -61 (15-76) in that section.

      https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/1b8yww4g1l/SundayTimesResults_170512_VI_W.pdf

      Delete
    2. The holy fadder Francis is back. Got over his hump.

      Delete
    3. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
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      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
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      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
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      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
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      All you need is love (Everybody!)
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      Delete
  3. It's a huge poll, without weighting the MoE is very high, but as it happens it's only 10 times too small, rather than the usual 100 times, to have enough people to have OK constituency-level weighted results for every constituency if someone paid for the work. Ashcroft certainly wants that if you read what he said this week.

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  4. Surprisingly few polls so far in this election, especially in Scotland. Given that there are only 25 days to go to polling day, the opportunity to correct this is diminishing fast.

    It is more like a presidential stand off between May and Corbyn than a General Election and from the Conservative side an incredibly stage managed election at that. My hope is that people will realise that the a vote for the Tories is not just a vote for Bexit Christmas and that while not for life it will be for the duration and an opportunity for an increasingly right wing Conservative Party to irreparably damage our cherished services.

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  5. Knickerless changes her mind more often than her knickers. She wants a referendum after the brexit negotaitions are concluded. 2020 maybe!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nicola Sturgeon on Andrew Marr made it pretty clear except for the idiots, that she wants a poll before Britain has exited but after we know the terms of the deal. If, even I, can understand that, how thick do you have to be to misinterpret it?

      Delete
    2. Everyone on here knows that GWC2 is a numptie and a coward she hides behind that silly non de plume and is indeed a unionist troll it doesn't say what party it supports and my gues is it doesn't even vote so the best thing to do with cowards is to just ignore her!

      Delete
    3. GWC2 is a Kipper but will likely vote Tory as UKIP is dead on its feet. No Labour voter I know would use the language used here by GWC2. Labour doesn't have far to go for its problems but it isn't that desperate.

      That or someone on some serious drugs, of course :)

      Either way, hard to take seriously. It is the sort of behaviour that has got Ruth reading the riot act to her people and Twitter accounts are disappearing at a rate of knots.

      Delete
  6. GWC is one of those new tory councillor trolls, aren't you, GWC? Didn't your Lord and Lady Master not tell you to delete your abusive accounts?

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  7. How convenient for Clark to forget Knickerless was demanding a referendum to keep Scotland in the EU. That is it with the Nat sis who claim to represent all Scots over brexit. It was a British referendum and over a million Scots voted for brexit. You Nat sis only represent yourselves not the majority. I will be one of the first to apply for the NEW British Passport. Up yer kilts fash.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Love, Love, Love.
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      Love, Love, Love.
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      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
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      All you need is love, love.
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      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete
    2. Love is not being taken from the rear, makes yer eyes water I am informed.

      Delete
    3. Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      Love, Love, Love.
      There's nothing you can do that can't be done.
      Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.
      Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.
      It's easy.
      Nothing you can make that can't be made.
      No one you can save that can't be saved.
      Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love.
      All you need is love, love.
      Love is all you need.
      Nothing you can know that isn't known.
      Nothing you can see that isn't shown.
      Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.
      It's easy.
      All you need is love (All together, now!)
      All you need is love (Everybody!)
      All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

      Delete