Scotland would now vote in favour of independence, according to post-referendum Panelbase poll

We now have confirmation of the Panelbase numbers - fieldwork was apparently conducted on Friday and Saturday, so entirely after the referendum result was known.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 52%
No 48%

According to the Sunday Times who commissioned the poll, that represents a 7% increase in the Yes vote and a 7% decrease in the No vote.  I'll have to take their word for that, because I'm not aware of a recent Panelbase poll giving No a 55-45 lead.  The last one listed by What Scotland Thinks is from April, and showed Yes 47%, No 53%.

To put this in perspective, 52% is the best ever showing for Yes in a Panelbase poll.  It's only the third Panelbase poll to put Yes in the lead - and the other two were questionable for one reason or another (either because of unusual question wording, or because of an unusual question sequence).  Assuming there was nothing odd about the way the question was posed in this poll, it'll essentially be the first time Panelbase have ever shown a majority for independence in a way that can't be easily disputed.

And what I said in the previous post still stands - Panelbase have a long track record of reporting only the most modest of movement on the independence question, even when other firms were picking up much bigger swings (most obviously in August/September 2014).  So this poll certainly does not rule out the possibility that we'll see much larger Yes leads in other post-referendum polls.  That may already have happened, of course, in the shape of tonight's ScotPulse poll putting Yes ahead by 59% to 32%.  I don't really know what to make of that one - ScotPulse are a fully-fledged internet polling panel outfit, but I'd like to hear some assurances that they made proper efforts to weight the poll correctly.  Their previous forays into political polling haven't always filled me with huge confidence.