Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain 41% (+1)
Leave 43% (-4)
From what I can gather, TNS have chosen this unlikely moment to make a big methodological change, which entirely explains the apparent movement towards Remain. Without it, Leave would have retained exactly the same 7% lead they had in the last poll from the same firm. That's pretty extraordinary, given that the previous poll was conducted when Leave were enjoying a bit of a purple patch across the whole of the polling industry. On the face of it, that bodes well for a Leave victory, because it implies there's unlikely to have been much of a swingback to Remain - but the snag is that the fieldwork was conducted over a relatively extended period. It finished today, but it started way back last Thursday. That leaves open the possibility that there has been a very recent swing to Remain that this poll was unable to detect.
UPDATE : Just to emphasise the point about there being no underlying swing to Remain in this poll, I've now had a look at the datasets, and it appears that among the whole sample (when undecided 'leaners' are not assigned to either side) the Leave lead has actually increased from 2% to 4%.
All the polls show it very close. We will see how accurate they were tomorrow night/Friday morning.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe there is no exit poll. The fact there wasn't an exit poll on the Indyref either, leads me to believe Remain are definitely going to win.
ReplyDeleteThere's this stubborn myth that there is something highly unusual or suspicious about there being no exit poll. As far as I can see, of the very few referendums that have been held in the UK, there has never been an exit poll. There has never been an exit poll for a devolved election, or for a set of local elections, or for a European election. Exit polls for by-elections are extremely rare, and have only really been done as trial runs for general elections.
DeleteAnd even at general elections, full-scale and authentic exit polls have only been running since 1992.
The BBC did do an exit poll for the Glasgow Govan by-election in 1988.
DeleteWatch the pound.
Deletehttp://news.sky.com/story/1704796/hedge-funds-paying-for-private-eu-exit-polls
Before the methodology change, Remain were ahead by 1% with men, but 15% behind with women. This contradicts most polling, which has shown men being more sympathetic to Leave. I guess TNS put their thumb on the scale because it was a very strange sample - they would have been going out on a limb if they had published a poll showing Leave ahead by 7.
ReplyDeleteOk, I'll call it -- my gut says it'll be "out". Agree or disagree?
ReplyDeleteThe markets seem confident it's a remain.
ReplyDeleteWho gives a flying fuck about the markets. Unless you are a someone who benefits directly out of it.
DeleteI'm voting remain for the record.
I dont give a fuck about the markets either, and I'm voting remain too. Its just rather odd that both this and our indyref were allegedly too close too call yet the markets were not jittery as you might expect them to be when faced with a big uncertainty. Because the pound and stocks have been going up, theres silly money on the line for investors if theres a leave, yet they dont seem bothered. Ive no idea how it works. Maybe they know Project Fear was utter pish and theres nothing to be worried about?
DeleteApologies if that came across as blunt. I get fed up of people talking about the markets, it's irrelevant to the average Joe. Apart from the fact it's one the main reasons the UK is lop-sided towards the South. Did you know Glasgow used to have its own stick market up until recently?
DeleteStock ### ha ha
DeleteIt was a restaurant called The Blue Chip for a while.
DeleteHave a look at this https://scotlandonscreen.org.uk/browse-films/007-000-002-457-c
DeleteMost people with pension funds like to know what the stock market is up to....for obvious reasons...
DeleteThrow in that tje current workforce pays for peoples state pensions and many peoples jobs are entirely reliant on their company not going bust through a lack of credit due to a financial crash and you might understand that the economy is fucking linked like a chain.
I think most people aren't really aware of what their pension fund is up to. The value of your pension depends largely on the investment options you have chosen and the company in charge of it. Money is still made on the stock market when it drops. I think it's called selling short, I may be wrong.
DeleteHowever, besides the point, the only people who really benefit are those at the very top...the rest of us should just ignore it. It's becoming another distraction.
Well when their funds are diversified across a wide range of areas and they still drop then yeh, I think folk might be annoyed it wasnt pointed out to them of the risks.
DeleteAnd you will find that it isnt the fund managers or pension providers thst sell short, its the cowboys and bandits on the stock market
Mike Smithson tweeting tonights Comres phone poll as interesting, whatever that means.
ReplyDeleteWith polling industry in crisis there is zero incentive to produce an outlier on the final day. I suspect that's what is behind the last min change in methodology. Classic herding behaviour.
ReplyDeleteI think the issue with markets is interesting. We all know the postals were "pre-known" to the No on our referendum. It is reasonable to assume the state knows the postals so far. The state wants remain to win.
ReplyDeleteThe establishment is populated by rich investor/speculator types. If they are gambling their own money it is likely that a fair few will be doing so with insider knowledge.
Many of the postals in our referendum were older voters. Over the weeks we have become accustomed to the idea that they - and fanatical xenophobes ( Venn diagram that kids ) are most likely to vote, and to be brexitphiles. If the postals are already running remain, then odds are its going to be remain on the day. Hence the insider dealing opportunity which arises.
What I would say, for us peasants, is that if its stay get your holiday cash bought in the next few days. Euro 1:30 to the pound is slightly high. If it careers up to 1:40 or more that is way over the "right" price and a good opportunity for generation Ryanair.
Hmmm. Not convinced they would know the postal vote results.
DeleteThe postals are 25% of votes and are good for Leave. Makes sense with big elderly population. They are hoping that will get them over the line, according to BBC/C4 tonight cant remember which. I assume the same sampling goes on and illegal leaking as in Indyref except unlike Ruthie, no-one this time has been stupid enough to identify themselves.
DeleteIf you go back to the postal votes in the Scottish Referendum, I was told that Dundee voted No on the postal vote but Yes did very well on the day.
Delete