Thanks to my namesake James on the previous thread for alerting me to the fact that the Lib Dems have leaked another of their internal constituency polls - this time East Dunbartonshire. The methodology used in these polls moves heaven and earth to produce artificially good results for the Lib Dems (ie. leading questions asked before the voting intention question, plus strict weighting by 2010 vote recall), so the fact that the SNP still find themselves in a 'statistical tie' in one of their very toughest target seats is pretty extraordinary.
East Dunbartonshire voting intentions (Lib Dem poll) :
Liberal Democrats 34.5%
SNP 32.1%
Labour 16.2%
Conservatives 13.1%
Greens 2.0%
UKIP 0.7%
On the face of it, this poll is also devastating for Labour, because some projections have suggested they could gain East Dunbartonshire, even if they lose a large number of seats to the SNP. However, it's possible they've suffered disproportionately from the Lib Dem-friendly methodology.
East Dunbartonshire is one of the seats Populus have been polling this week, so if that proves to be an Ashcroft poll it will make the real state of play a lot clearer. Let's put it this way - I strongly suspect the Lib Dems aren't really in the lead, even allowing for Jo Swinson's personal vote.
Presumably the reason for leaking the poll was to establish the Lib Dems as the "only way of stopping the SNP here" for propaganda purposes, but Ashcroft could well muddy the waters in that respect.
I suspect Jo Swinson will stand for Holyrood next year if she loses her seat. She is fairly young, and must have a chance of taking over from Willie Rennie as leader.
ReplyDeleteMy mither's dug has a good chance of taking over the taxi full of lid dem MSP's after they turn on wee Wullie Rennie. :-D
DeleteClegg's ostrich faction are growing almost as desperate as SLAB as they try to peddle the 'stop the SNP' idiocy.
It's not just that they are openly calling for tories to vote for them in parts of scotland - and that's a stroke of genius considering it's the fact that most of the public already think are unprincipled yellow tories. It's also that they don't seem to have grasped that the pitiful 'stop the SNP' stuff would only have a chance of resonating if Nicola and the SNP were deeply unpopular in scotland like the out of touch westminster parties now are. Nicola and the SNP are the opposite of that for those who still can't read a poll.
The lid dems also now piling on the half-arsed pathetic smearing tactics of Project Fear shrieking about how nasty SNP supporters must be. This after Clegg's ostrich faction sold out everything they professed to believe in just for a sniff of power and a nice ministerial car. So it is somewhat unlikely to be taken very seriously, to say the least.
Every single time they try to hype up the incumbency factor they appear to have somehow forgotten that the toxic calamity Clegg is still all over the TV and media reminding the public why the yellow tories are so deeply disliked and mistrusted.
Her husband is an MP in Wiltshire so Holyrood would be difficult for her
DeleteI would rather she didn't. Her time with an equality brief hasn't exactly been brilliant with her focus massively on women at the expense of LGBT issues unless she can squeeze an article for PinkNews out of it.
DeleteShe also doesn't live in Scotland so there is that.
"Her husband is an MP in Wiltshire" with a rather delicate majority; he may need to go back to being an accountant shortly, something he could presumably do in Scotland too.
Delete"Her time with an equality brief hasn't exactly been brilliant with her focus massively on women"
DeleteConsidering that the odious Lord Rennard was welcomed back into her party with open arms - causing some woman who were lifelong members of the lib dems to quit the party - then it's hard to see how that 'massive focus on women' isn't an ironic joke TBH.
Muttley - Noddy has a good chance of taking over from Oor Wullie Rennie. LOL
ReplyDeleteRennie does seem ever so nice, though, doesn't he? He has that "respectable next door neighbour" look about him.
ReplyDeleteHe looks like an irrelevance way, waaaay out of his depth. He's only the leader because they had such a MASSIVE selection to choose from. ;-)
DeleteHe was also one of the first to pile into Carmichael's incompetent smearing and lies about Nicola via the Torygraph and Mail. So the 'nice' stuff seems just touch misplaced.
Can't see her standing for Holyrood. She's married to a LibDem MP (Wiltshire) and has a very young son.
ReplyDeleteMore likely this poll with encourage Labour voters to vote SNP to get rid of the LibDem harhar
ReplyDeleteIt will encourage the defection of Labour voters to the SNP.
DeleteI'll be interested to see how this one plays out. My prediction (difference from above in brackets):-
ReplyDeleteLD 25.5% (-9.0%)
SNP 31.5% (-0.6%)
Lab 23.7% (+7.5%)
Con 13.3% (+0.2%)
My predictor takes no account of any 'big name' effect, or tactical voting.
My family live in East Dunbartonshire and I spend a lot of time in the area. From what I see this won't be close. SNP will take this with a 5%-10% margin.
ReplyDeleteThe Liberal vote has collapsed here due to genuine anger with Swinson and the Local councill (a Tory, Labour and Lib Dem coalliation) over the school closure programme. The local paper (M&B Herald) letters page is open season on Swinson.
The labour campaign here is non-existant. They have no chance here.
I also live in East Dunbartonshire and so does some family that were polled recently, seemingly by the Lib Dems. Unfortunately I think they contributed to those Lib Dem numbers by hanging up immediately after asking who was conducting the poll though I can confirm that there was a lot of leading questions being asked to temper the results towards the LDs.
DeleteI would be shocked if Jo Swinson managed to get back in. She has been a terrible MP with a shameful voting record and she is magnificently untrustworthy.
I concur regarding the opinion on Swinson. It isn't pretty which is a good thing as she doesn't deserve to represent the constituency. Labour presence is completely non-existent.
Yeh talking of smears. What has happened to Carmichaels investigation of the faked leak! Why are the press not pressing murphy everyday on his cuts lie!... I am beginning to think our press are biased or something! LOL
ReplyDeleteIf this poll is correct, then this would be a major (and unexpected) triumph for the LibDems - and a blow to the SNP. However I think that James is correct that we should be extremely skeptical about this - or indeed any - "internal" polls...In practice, I would be amazed if the SNP were not to win this seat by a fair distance...
ReplyDeleteIt would be an unexpected hold for the Lib Dems, but it wouldn't be that much of a blow for the SNP - some of the 40+ seat projections for the SNP assume that Labour will take East Dunbartonshire.
DeleteFor polling geeks.
ReplyDeleteWhy Some #indyref Polls Got It Wrong.
Steven Hope of Ipsos Mori analyzes the referendum polls and discusses why it is so hard for pollsters to get referendums right.
If we don't win East Dumbartonshire it will be a very poor night indeed. I know "no complacency" but this one should be in the bag. At first I thought this story was about West Dumbartonshire, which is a closer race, and would be a more satisfying victory.
ReplyDeleteThat isn't correct at all. The SNP finished fourth in East Dunbartonshire in 2010, with about 10% of the vote. It's a prosperous area that was 61.2% no in the referendum. That makes it one of the harder seats for the SNP to gain. By no means the hardest, but difficult.
DeleteTo clarify, the East Dunbartonshire constituency is a bit smaller than the council area of the same name, with some bits put in with the Cumbernauld seat instead (Kirkintilloch east). But it don't believe that there is a massive political difference between the constituency and the council - perhaps James would know more?
DeleteYeah but the LibDem vote has utterly collapsed, much more in percentage terms than Labour. Plus there is a fairly prominent, likable, capable SNP candidate in this constituency. Plus the Ashcroft poll suggested it was well inside the SNP column. I for one will be very disappointed if we don't take this one.
DeleteAshcroft hasn't published a poll in East Dunbartonshire yet. It's a monumentally tough seat for the SNP to win, and yet this poll suggests they have every chance of doing it.
DeleteAha! I don't know what made me think it was. The claim is so often made that only Carmichael's LibDem seat is safe I assumed Swinson was likely to lose. I reckon we'll win this one because, even though 40% Yes is low, the unionist vote is mightily divided in this seat.
DeleteThere's a difference between 'Swinson is likely to lose' and 'the SNP is likely to win'. A more intuitively probable outcome in this seat would be a Labour victory - the area has often returned Labour candidates in the past.
DeleteHowever, a result for the SNP at the upper end of current expectations would see them take it.
Exactly. If you had assessed this seat this time last year, it would have been categorised as a fairly easy Labour gain. Indeed, when Jim Murphy was talking bullishly about Labour's chances in December, he said that they would hold all of their existing seats and gain one or two on top. East Dunbartonshire would have certainly been one of the gain(s).
DeleteThe choice of Labour candidate was strange. Their candidate worked for the consultancy firm McKinsey & Co, who advised the NHS in England on how to be more 'efficient'. Perhaps they were trying to appeal to the residents of Milngavie and Bearsden. He is not a typical Labour candidate but I think their strategy may have backfired after recent reports in the Sunday Herald about his work for McKinsey.
DeleteJo Swinson has a large personal vote in the Bishopbriggs area, especially among older women. She has managed to create the illusion that she works really hard for the area though few could tell you what she has actually achieved.
I've never seen so many new, concerned posters on indy blogs. Bella in particular seems to have been targeted.
ReplyDeleteIs the British State worried about something? 😀
Donald has posted here several times before, so he's not a concern troll, but for the record, I think he's way wide of the mark. As I said in the blogpost, East Dunbartonshire is one of the toughest seats in the whole of Scotland for the SNP. If they're on the brink of victory there, they're doing unbelievably well.
DeleteMy apologies, James. My comment wasn't aimed at any particular poster. I'm posting from my phone.
DeleteBella Caledonia has definitely been targeted by trolls, I not sure whether it is organised or not.
DeleteHer husband should lose his seat too so in theory she could come back to Scotland.
ReplyDeleteAye, but where? It's not like there is a long list of eminently winnable Lib Dem seats out there...
DeletePresumably as a list MSP.
DeleteI agree that it's more likely she moves on to something outside electoral politics, as a fairly high-profile minister she should be able to make a few quid.
Delete4% share of national VI doesn't look good for getting any List seats outside 1 each in North of Scotland and South of Scotland.
DeletePopulus poll of GB that first asks about EU referendum, but also asks if the leaders have done better or worse than you expected in the campaign.
ReplyDeletehttp://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmFT-Poll.pdf
Sturgeon 38-12 (54-13 in Scotland)
Miliband 29-23 (32-27 in Scotland)
Cameron 21-23 (16-35 in Scotland)
Murphy (Scotland only score: 19-27)
Davidson (Scotland only score: 15-17)
What an incredibly stupid poll question, because if you had low expectations of a leader to start with then your answer doesn't contribute to a negative rating. A simple do you approve/disapprove question is much more illuminating.
DeleteApparently, the LibDems ain't doing very well down south either. According to a poll out today, they could loose all 14 seats in their SW England stronghold to the Tories. My heart bleeds.
ReplyDeleteI don't think that's very likely. Ashcroft has got the Lib Dems narrowly ahead in two of the Cornish seats (St Ives and North Cornwall), where they are defending three, for example. I suspect the ComRes poll doesn't account for incumbency effects in individual seats in the way that Ashcroft does.
DeleteI am very sceptical of these Ashcroft polls that boost incumbents by asking the regular VI question following by another implying you should be voting for a local candidate. They probably overestimate the incumbency advantage, in which case the LibDems and Labour in Scotland could be doing much worse and SNP even better. This election should give a clue as to whether this sequence of questions is useful or misleading.
DeleteWhere are the tables for this Comfort Poll? Using the basis of Gordon, this could mean the SNP are 5pts ahead. I also wonder whether it risks more Labour voters moving to SNP to stop the "Tory-loving" Liberals.
ReplyDeleteNone that I have seen. They've just told the headline numbers to the local paper (Kirkintilloch Herald) as they did with the Aberdeenshire poll.
DeleteThe press should not pander to such propaganda by dignifying it in calling it a "poll" or at least they should flag up the biases involved in its production.
DeleteJames Kelly,
ReplyDeleteRecherchez les temps perdu and all that?
From a betting perspective it is clear that accumulators on the GE are taboo.
douglas clark
Well who'd have thunk it?
The bookies really want to make an honest man of me ;-)
Is the Record's monthly Survation poll out tonight? I seen it somewhere, but nothing official and if looking at previous months it's usually about now it comes out.
ReplyDeletePulpstar @Pulpstar 2h2 hours ago
ReplyDelete@Survation Is the Dunbartonshire East poll by yourselves or along the lines of the WAK poll ?
Survation. @Survation 2h2 hours ago
@Pulpstar WAK. - field & tab only.
John Nicolson is the SNP candidate for this area. He tweeted about the poll here https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/588646497853562880
ReplyDeleteThis is my reading of the state of play in this constituency. I would say SNP are miles in front with the tories beating the libdems and Labour
Sensational? Hardly.
ReplyDeleteNonsense poll more like. There is no way the LibDem vote has dropped by a mere 4 points since 2010.
As for Swinson running for Holyrood, I'm sure she'll be amongst a bunch of familiar faces, a la Curran.
Yes, it's a sensational poll. It shows the SNP essentially tied for the lead in one of the toughest seats of all - and that's in spite of the fact that the poll's methodology was stacked against them. It doesn't get much more sensational than that.
DeleteOh goodness don't say that, I hope we'll truly see the back of Curran, Sarwar, Alexander, Davidson, Doyle et. al.
DeleteIn fairness to them, the Lib Dems have now posted tables for the East Dunbartonshire poll on one of their supporter sites:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.libdemvoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/East-Dunbartonshire-constituency-poll.pdf
Only problem is that the sample looks top-heavy with no voters (page 13). They have a split of 32% yes, 59% no and 10% dk, but the actual result for the council area was 39-61. The council area is different from the constituency, but it won't be that much different.
Naming candidates and asking if you like them: Ashcroft calls this comfort polling. Undoubtedly highly overstates LibDem support. I would not take any comfort from this if I was Swinson. I very much expect this seat to vote SNP.
DeleteRE: the Lib Dems in England, they have traditionally been the 'protest vote' in England for anyone who was sick of the shenanigans of the 'Big Two'
ReplyDeleteThey have flushed that 'selling point' down the chuggie now, by going into coalition with the Tories.
They have also been overtaken by UKIP as the party to stick two fingers up to the establishment, so I would not find it hard to believe these Ashcroft polling figures.
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/588695934365786112
ReplyDelete