tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post6529258298840597855..comments2024-03-29T04:11:41.539+00:00Comments on SCOT goes POP!: Sensational poll commissioned by the Lib Dems suggests the SNP are within touching distance of winning EAST DUNBARTONSHIREJames Kellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-16098053897343201702015-04-16T15:07:31.210+01:002015-04-16T15:07:31.210+01:00https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/58869593436...<a href="https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/588695934365786112" rel="nofollow">https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/588695934365786112</a>cynicalHighlanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06034325908473006163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-80243947342466300992015-04-16T14:49:17.804+01:002015-04-16T14:49:17.804+01:00RE: the Lib Dems in England, they have traditional...RE: the Lib Dems in England, they have traditionally been the 'protest vote' in England for anyone who was sick of the shenanigans of the 'Big Two'<br /><br />They have flushed that 'selling point' down the chuggie now, by going into coalition with the Tories.<br /><br />They have also been overtaken by UKIP as the party to stick two fingers up to the establishment, so I would not find it hard to believe these Ashcroft polling figures.Patrick Rodennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-89424601763343616432015-04-16T14:37:44.113+01:002015-04-16T14:37:44.113+01:00Oh goodness don't say that, I hope we'll t...Oh goodness don't say that, I hope we'll truly see the back of Curran, Sarwar, Alexander, Davidson, Doyle et. al.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88372040351315700242015-04-16T14:35:57.616+01:002015-04-16T14:35:57.616+01:00Naming candidates and asking if you like them: Ash...Naming candidates and asking if you like them: Ashcroft calls this comfort polling. Undoubtedly highly overstates LibDem support. I would not take any comfort from this if I was Swinson. I very much expect this seat to vote SNP. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-73143962465248682942015-04-16T14:19:19.506+01:002015-04-16T14:19:19.506+01:00Yes, it's a sensational poll. It shows the SN...Yes, it's a sensational poll. It shows the SNP essentially tied for the lead in one of the toughest seats of all - and that's in spite of the fact that the poll's methodology was stacked against them. It doesn't get much more sensational than that.James Kellynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-23626790062543394252015-04-16T14:08:04.695+01:002015-04-16T14:08:04.695+01:00In fairness to them, the Lib Dems have now posted ...In fairness to them, the Lib Dems have now posted tables for the East Dunbartonshire poll on one of their supporter sites:<br /><br />http://www.libdemvoice.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/East-Dunbartonshire-constituency-poll.pdf<br /><br />Only problem is that the sample looks top-heavy with no voters (page 13). They have a split of 32% yes, 59% no and 10% dk, but the actual result for the council area was 39-61. The council area is different from the constituency, but it won't be that much different.Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-293711359781496192015-04-16T13:26:32.880+01:002015-04-16T13:26:32.880+01:00Sensational? Hardly.
Nonsense poll more like. Ther...Sensational? Hardly.<br />Nonsense poll more like. There is no way the LibDem vote has dropped by a mere 4 points since 2010.<br />As for Swinson running for Holyrood, I'm sure she'll be amongst a bunch of familiar faces, a la Curran.Boabnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-37355179209432472522015-04-16T12:46:09.872+01:002015-04-16T12:46:09.872+01:00John Nicolson is the SNP candidate for this area. ...John Nicolson is the SNP candidate for this area. He tweeted about the poll here https://twitter.com/MrJohnNicolson/status/588646497853562880<br /><br />This is my reading of the state of play in this constituency. I would say SNP are miles in front with the tories beating the libdems and Labour Laukatnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-54499577881669064152015-04-16T10:33:53.618+01:002015-04-16T10:33:53.618+01:00Pulpstar @Pulpstar 2h2 hours ago
@Survation Is th...Pulpstar @Pulpstar 2h2 hours ago<br />@Survation Is the Dunbartonshire East poll by yourselves or along the lines of the WAK poll ?<br /><br />Survation. @Survation 2h2 hours ago<br />@Pulpstar WAK. - field & tab only.Pulpstar's bloghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10851577666051111373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-35942891504506917062015-04-16T09:28:12.562+01:002015-04-16T09:28:12.562+01:00The choice of Labour candidate was strange. Their ...The choice of Labour candidate was strange. Their candidate worked for the consultancy firm McKinsey & Co, who advised the NHS in England on how to be more 'efficient'. Perhaps they were trying to appeal to the residents of Milngavie and Bearsden. He is not a typical Labour candidate but I think their strategy may have backfired after recent reports in the Sunday Herald about his work for McKinsey. <br />Jo Swinson has a large personal vote in the Bishopbriggs area, especially among older women. She has managed to create the illusion that she works really hard for the area though few could tell you what she has actually achieved. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-31886624872923441722015-04-16T06:45:35.297+01:002015-04-16T06:45:35.297+01:00Exactly. If you had assessed this seat this time l...Exactly. If you had assessed this seat this time last year, it would have been categorised as a fairly easy Labour gain. Indeed, when Jim Murphy was talking bullishly about Labour's chances in December, he said that they would hold all of their existing seats and gain one or two on top. East Dunbartonshire would have certainly been one of the gain(s).Jamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-71784836709287594392015-04-16T05:48:50.851+01:002015-04-16T05:48:50.851+01:00Is the Record's monthly Survation poll out ton...Is the Record's monthly Survation poll out tonight? I seen it somewhere, but nothing official and if looking at previous months it's usually about now it comes out.Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88835915304508143392015-04-16T01:19:22.202+01:002015-04-16T01:19:22.202+01:00There's a difference between 'Swinson is l...There's a difference between 'Swinson is likely to lose' and 'the SNP is likely to win'. A more intuitively probable outcome in this seat would be a Labour victory - the area has often returned Labour candidates in the past.<br /><br />However, a result for the SNP at the upper end of current expectations would see them take it.NIALLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-85885944018491207542015-04-16T00:46:17.858+01:002015-04-16T00:46:17.858+01:00What an incredibly stupid poll question, because i...What an incredibly stupid poll question, because if you had low expectations of a leader to start with then your answer doesn't contribute to a negative rating. A simple do you approve/disapprove question is much more illuminating. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-88122993273543990342015-04-16T00:43:59.315+01:002015-04-16T00:43:59.315+01:00Aha! I don't know what made me think it was. T...Aha! I don't know what made me think it was. The claim is so often made that only Carmichael's LibDem seat is safe I assumed Swinson was likely to lose. I reckon we'll win this one because, even though 40% Yes is low, the unionist vote is mightily divided in this seat. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44359438195602771442015-04-16T00:24:01.744+01:002015-04-16T00:24:01.744+01:00"Her time with an equality brief hasn't e...<i>"Her time with an equality brief hasn't exactly been brilliant with her focus massively on women"</i><br /><br />Considering that the odious Lord Rennard was welcomed back into her party with open arms - causing some woman who were lifelong members of the lib dems to quit the party - then it's hard to see how that 'massive focus on women' isn't an ironic joke TBH.Mick Porknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-53546014729522034232015-04-15T23:32:54.676+01:002015-04-15T23:32:54.676+01:00James Kelly,
Recherchez les temps perdu and all t...James Kelly,<br /><br />Recherchez les temps perdu and all that?<br /><br />From a betting perspective it is clear that accumulators on the GE are taboo.<br /><br />douglas clark<br /><br />Well who'd have thunk it?<br /><br />The bookies really want to make an honest man of me ;-)<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-34837738372989213002015-04-15T23:30:53.868+01:002015-04-15T23:30:53.868+01:00"Her husband is an MP in Wiltshire" with..."Her husband is an MP in Wiltshire" with a rather delicate majority; he may need to go back to being an accountant shortly, something he could presumably do in Scotland too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44357212858046016302015-04-15T22:35:19.643+01:002015-04-15T22:35:19.643+01:00Ashcroft hasn't published a poll in East Dunba...Ashcroft hasn't published a poll in East Dunbartonshire yet. It's a monumentally tough seat for the SNP to win, and yet this poll suggests they have every chance of doing it.James Kellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01516007141763230886noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-47531189324425491552015-04-15T22:18:28.225+01:002015-04-15T22:18:28.225+01:00The press should not pander to such propaganda by ...The press should not pander to such propaganda by dignifying it in calling it a "poll" or at least they should flag up the biases involved in its production. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-36927474973424821662015-04-15T22:15:17.976+01:002015-04-15T22:15:17.976+01:00I am very sceptical of these Ashcroft polls that b...I am very sceptical of these Ashcroft polls that boost incumbents by asking the regular VI question following by another implying you should be voting for a local candidate. They probably overestimate the incumbency advantage, in which case the LibDems and Labour in Scotland could be doing much worse and SNP even better. This election should give a clue as to whether this sequence of questions is useful or misleading. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-48051831087642149142015-04-15T22:10:28.476+01:002015-04-15T22:10:28.476+01:00Yeah but the LibDem vote has utterly collapsed, mu...Yeah but the LibDem vote has utterly collapsed, much more in percentage terms than Labour. Plus there is a fairly prominent, likable, capable SNP candidate in this constituency. Plus the Ashcroft poll suggested it was well inside the SNP column. I for one will be very disappointed if we don't take this one.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08577553523355390868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-75940597364540928852015-04-15T21:55:12.782+01:002015-04-15T21:55:12.782+01:00I would rather she didn't. Her time with an eq...I would rather she didn't. Her time with an equality brief hasn't exactly been brilliant with her focus massively on women at the expense of LGBT issues unless she can squeeze an article for PinkNews out of it.<br /><br />She also doesn't live in Scotland so there is that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-25327740703329840682015-04-15T21:51:48.365+01:002015-04-15T21:51:48.365+01:00I also live in East Dunbartonshire and so does som...I also live in East Dunbartonshire and so does some family that were polled recently, seemingly by the Lib Dems. Unfortunately I think they contributed to those Lib Dem numbers by hanging up immediately after asking who was conducting the poll though I can confirm that there was a lot of leading questions being asked to temper the results towards the LDs.<br /><br />I would be shocked if Jo Swinson managed to get back in. She has been a terrible MP with a shameful voting record and she is magnificently untrustworthy.<br /><br />I concur regarding the opinion on Swinson. It isn't pretty which is a good thing as she doesn't deserve to represent the constituency. Labour presence is completely non-existent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-930120922627919768.post-44494722376691578172015-04-15T21:26:44.722+01:002015-04-15T21:26:44.722+01:00Her husband is an MP in Wiltshire so Holyrood woul...Her husband is an MP in Wiltshire so Holyrood would be difficult for her Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com