I wouldn't normally pay as much attention as this to the betting markets, because they tend to be less reliable (or "efficient" or whatever the jargon is) on political matters than on sport. But in the absence of post-Trussmageddon polling of Tory members, they may be the best guide on offer at the moment.
Rishi Sunak 1.62
Boris Johnson 3.05
Penny Mordaunt 18.5
That implies a mind-boggling 33% chance of Boris returning as Prime Minister after only a few weeks, with a 62% chance for Rishi Sunak. What's happened is that commentators have walked back their original assessment that Mordaunt was the only person with a realistic chance of joining Sunak on 100 nominations. Now it appears that she has no chance of doing that, and that Johnson does - although opinions still differ sharply on how likely he is to reach the threshold.
Another reason for suspecting that Johnson's chances are possibly being overestimated is that he has a track record of backing out from a previous leadership contest (in 2016) when he started to fear that defeat was likely. Above all else he wants to feel loved, and may remove himself from any situation in which that feeling could be taken from him.
Nevertheless, there are good reasons for thinking he could emerge as the winner if he gets enough nominations and faces off against Sunak in a members' ballot. A YouGov poll of Tory members, conducted just before Truss resigned, found the following -
Boris Johnson 32%
Rishi Sunak 23%
Ben Wallace 10%
Penny Mordaunt 9%
Kemi Badenoch 8%
Jeremy Hunt 7%
That's not such a massive lead that it can't be overhauled, but there's only a week to go, and not much time for reflection, let alone sober reflection - the Tory party is in a feverish state at present.
And the impact on the Scottish independence campaign? It's tempting to imagine that a Johnson victory would restore us to the status quo ante of a year or two ago - ie. the ideal situation of a Tory leader being popular in England but incredibly unpopular in Scotland, thus giving us the opportunity to say to the Scottish public that independence is the only possible escape route from Tory rule. But however popular Johnson remains among Tory members, his credibility has gone with swing voters in England. I suspect Sunak is the only person with any chance of turning this around for the Tories - it may not even be possible for him to do it, but at least he has the unique advantage of being able to say he stood against Truss and predicted exactly what would happen if she won.
My main misgiving about Sunak from a pro-indy strategic point of view is that he might help the Scottish Tories salvage some or all of their current seats. I've been so looking forward to the mini-blue-wall in the south of Scotland being torn down, and to the look on Alister Jack's face when he's sent packing by voters and replaced with a pro-independence MP.
Latest YouGov, Scottish sub-sample has the Tories on single figures (9%).
ReplyDeletePoll conducted on behalf of GBTV has the Tories on 14% (UK wide) with the LibDems on 11%.
On the face of it, the Tories need a miracle to avoid UK wide extinction. When you need a miracle who do you turn to? Rishi can’t deliver. There’s a tiny chance that Boris can throw a Hail Mary pass. I’m backing Boris.
James,
ReplyDeleteA small point on the betting markets:
If Sunak has a 62% chance of winning with odds of 1.62: 1 i.e. 1.62 / (1+1.62) does it not follow that Johnson has only a 25% chance - rather than 33% - if his odds are 3:1?
Content for you to tell me where I am wrong.
No, the 62 thing is just a coincidence. For example, if Sunak was on 2.0, he would have an exactly 50% chance. Johnson's decimal odds of 3.05 equate to roughly 2/1 in old money, not 3/1 - hence he's a 33% chance. If he was at 3/1, his decimal odds would be 4.0.
DeleteThanks.
DeleteLets be honest if it is going to come down to a straight fight between Sunak and Johnson and the membership in the leafy suburbs have tthe final say.... They are not going to elect a Brown Man,
ReplyDeletePlease let Bowis become PM again - please, please please.
ReplyDeleteA UK GE has the worst franchise for a yes > 50% vote but the more MPs the SNP get from a failed de facto referendum the more dosh £££££ they get from Westminster.
ReplyDeleteI see the Irish Skier has had a post on WGD deleted for using extremely offensive laguage. I read it before it was deleted by the moderators and decided not to quote it on SGP as it was that bad. I won't refer to any of the details but it was beyond the pale. Thankfully some posters on WGD agreed it was a shocker. Dr Jim less so.
ReplyDeleteFor some clarity on the post it was not a comment about SGP or myself but I can assure you if the Irish Skier was on the SNP's list of undesirable members he would be oot the door by now. The SNP specialise these days in double standards. I se that every time Patrick Grady pops up on my tv in the House of Commons.
DeleteAlex Clark criticises The National for taking the claim that Johnson has 100 nominations at face value. Well I don't remember any of the WGD numpties saying the same when The National just parroted what the Britnat papers were saying about Salmonds criminal trial. Almost a cut and paste job from some Britnat papers.
ReplyDeleteIt won't be long before the English are wearing MEGA hats as they decide between:
ReplyDelete1. a guy who was playing about with a USA green card with a non dom billionaire tax dodging wife and,
2. a pathological liar who was booted out of 10 Downing st, not for giving billions worth of dodgy contracts to Tory friends and presiding over >200k deaths but because he loves a party and his pals like a grope.
to become their next PM.
This is the shithouse called the UK and crying I'm a Scot get me to the f**k out of here just doesn't cut it.